Thiago Alves (-280) vs. John Howard (+240)
Thiago “Pitbull” Alves (17-7 MMA, 9-4 UFC) is trying to get back on the winning path after losing 2 straight. Alves is a gigantic welterweight, but has had problems making weight. 2 out of his last 4 bouts he has been unable to make the 171 pound weight limit. He is probably best known for his aggressive Muay-Thai style and has been training that discipline since age 15. He also holds a Brown Belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Alves trains out of American Top Team in Coconut Creek, Florida alongside such fighters as Hector Lombard, Cole Miller and Wilson Gouveia. 7 out of his 9 UFC wins have been via TKO or knockout.
Even though he has lost his last two there is no shame in the level of fighters that bested him. Georges St. Pierre and Jon Fitch are the best two 170 pound fighters in the world, and both won via decision. The most notable fighters that Alves has beaten would have to be Josh Koscheck, Matt Hughes, and Chris Lytle.
John “Doomsday” Howard (14-5 MMA, 4-1 UFC) is a mixed martial artist fighting out of the Wai Kru gym in Boston. Howard is primarily a stand up fighter, but has amassed 15 takedowns in his UFC career.
The best fighters that Howard has beaten are Daniel Roberts, Dennis Hallman and Charlie Brenneman. Before joining the UFC, Dan Miller decisioned him. Since he started fighting for Zuffa, his only loss is to wrestler Jake Ellenberger.
This fight is a huge step up in competition for Howard. Even though he holds wins over Hallman and Tamdan McCrory, they are a bit misleading. Against Hallman, he was handled pretty easily and pulled off an incredible knockout with only 5 seconds remaining. He had lost the 1st two rounds and was on his way to a loss. Against McCrory, Sherdog.com scored the fight 29-28 McCrory, but Howard got the nod on 2 out of 3 judges cards. When he fought Ellenberger, Howard was taken down repeatedly and had arguably the worst eye swelling en route to a referee stoppage. I really do not see where Howard has any sort of an advantage here. Alves is a stronger, faster, more accurate, and more well rounded striker. Alves was able to stop the takedowns of D1 National Champion wrestler Josh Koscheck, while Howard was taken down repeatedly by a guy that lacks any serious credentials in Ellenberger. I cannot envision Howard getting a takedown and ground and pound, and I can’t see him holding his own on the feet. I think this fight has a great shot at knockout of the night since Howard is likely going to “stand and bang” but is overmatched by Alves. Even at these odds, I think there is some value on Alves. I will add a 2.8 unit bet to win 1.0 units. Thiago Alves via TKO in the 2nd.