After the conclusion of the first event in our betting challenge, Mike Hammersmith has the lead. Mike wagered $80 on Nick Diaz to win $23.88 but lost $20 on Trevor Prangley. Tyler “fightfightfight” White went all in with a $100 wager on Prangley. As per our preset rules, Tyler will restart at $50. I had a few smaller wagers, losing $12 on Prangley and $10 on Robbie Lawler. I made a little back with a $33.50 bet on Diaz to win $10.
I asked the guys to provide a little insight into what their reasons are for betting on which fighters and why so the readers know it isn’t “just shot in the dark” betting here.
Mike Hammersmith- $103.88
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“This card isn’t the best from a betting stand-point, but we have three fights worth the wager.
My main money-maker here is Gabe Ruediger, who will take on Paul Taylor in a sleeper fight of the night. This is admittedly a close one, but the odds are just too good to ignore. In a fight that I feel Ruediger takes 55% of the time, you have to respect the value bet here.
In a similar vein, a wager on an undervalued Forrest Griffin could pay out handsomely, as I feel he takes that fight over Rich Franklin by the narrowest of margins.
My rock steady conservative bet is on the Middleweight Champion. Despite the hype generated for this fight, I don’t see Belfort winning this one with the ring rust and lack of experience at this weight. A bet on Silva at these odds can help ease the pain if one of my other bets fail, and is a low risk way of lining my pockets further.”
$50 on Gabe Ruediger to win $85
$33 on Anderson Silva to win $13.75
$20 on Forrest Griffin to win $29
Tyler White- $50
“This week I am looking for the most profitable dog fan an all-in bet, while the 50 dollar restart is still close by. For me its VERY close by after a luck rear naked choke last week by Roger Gracie. Who’d have thunk it. Almost everybody, actually.
At +170, Gabe Ruediger will be it. Although anything can happen in MMA, Ruediger vs. Paul Taylor seems like a pretty cut and dried fight. If Taylor keeps it on the feet he will light Ruediger up, getting a KO or winning a clear decision. If Ruediger can take him down he has great jiu-jitsu and will sub him, ground and pound him, or control him for an easy decision. Ruediger doesn’t have great wrestling, but he is strong and will be relentless in his attempts. Taylor doesn’t have great takedown defense, but he has been improving. I don’t think it will be enough, and Ruediger will eventually drag him down and get the submission.”
$50 on Gabe Ruediger to win $85
Zach Lambert- $88
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My lock of the card is Miguel Torres. He is the much better grappler and I cannot wait to see how much his striking is improving after working with iconic coach, Firas Zahabi. I can’t see Banuelos taking this outside of a very lucky punch. Only reason I am not going all in is the odds are a little steep at -335. I like a small bet on Rich Franklin as well. I think people are exaggerating how much Griffin’s size is going to affect this fight. Franklin is a better striker, solid in the clinch, and isn’t a slouch on the ground. My last bet of the night is on Anderson Silva. I bet 24 on him when he was at -240 and then re-upped when he dropped to -220. I believe the UFC hype train is in full effect behind Vitor here. They are trying to sell him as this amazing striker, but based on who he has been knocking out, its not too hard. The only fight that he has won that impresses me is the win over Franklin. Franklin was over aggressive and got knocked out by some solid counter punching. Silva will not be rushing in to Belforts world here. I believe Silva knocks him out in the 2nd or maybe 3rd when Belforts legs are kicked out from under him and he has to be the aggressor. I’m also jumping on the Ruediger wagon here with my fellow bettors.
$24 on Anderson Silva to win $10
$22 on Anderson Silva to win $10
$15 on Rich Franklin to win $10
$18 on Miguel Torres to win $5
$9 on Gabe Ruediger to win $15.30