The Ultimate Fighter 12: Team GSP vs. Team Koscheck Finale takes place this Saturday on Spike TV.  I will do analysis of all maincard fights along with my predictions and betting advice.  The first fight of the night is a welterweight battle between Johny Hendricks and Rick Story.

Johny Hendricks (-200) vs. Rick Story (+185)

Johny Hendricks (9-0 MMA, 4-0 UFC) has one of the better NCAA wrestling backgrounds in MMA.  Hendricks was able to win 2 national titles along with becoming an All-American all 4 years at Oklahoma State University.  He trains with Team Takedown in Las Vegas.  

Since joining the UFC after his brief stint in the WEC,  Hendricks has knocked out Amir Sadollah and Charlie Brenneman while getting the decision win over Ricardo Funch and TJ Grant.  

Rick “The Horror” Story (11-3 MMA, 4-1 UFC) also has a wrestling background, albeit not nearly the credentials that Hendricks holds.  In 2006 Story was the runner-up in the 184 pound NAIA championships.  He trains at Brave Legion in Washington, but has been working out with Josh Koscheck, Jon Fitch and at Urijah Faber’s gym Ultimate Fitness lately.

Story’s record is a bit misleading.  He started out his career 1-2, including a loss to current UFC fighter Mario Miranda.  Since then he has beaten current UFC fighters Jake Ellenberger in a small promotion fight, Brian Foster at UFC 103 and Dustin Hazelett at UFC 117.   His lone UFC loss was to British fighter John Hathaway at UFC 99.  I think there is a lot of value in Story hear and am leaning towards him pulling the upset.  Hendricks has much more power than Story, but lacks the speed and technique of him.  I don’t see Hendricks winning a striking battle here, besides landing a power shot and rocking/ko’ing him.  Hendricks didn’t look like a bona fide top prospect in his last two fights, losing rounds to both Brenneman and Grant.  Brenneman took him down twice in the first round alone. In Story’s last fight against Hazelett, he was relentless, seemingly teeing off for the entire fight.  I foresee Hendricks wanting to take this fight to the ground, but Story’s underrated wrestling will be able to stuff a few of the attempts.  I think Story may even take down the national champion at some point after landing a few shots.  I believe this will be a close fight, with Hendricks winning at least one round because he got a takedown and controls Story.  I’m predicting Story will be able to outstrike and possibly take down Hendricks at least 2 out of the 3 rounds for a very close unanimous decision win.