Strikeforce: Fedor vs. Silva will be the 3rd event in 3 weeks for our TSJ betting challenge. The conclusion of last week’s UFC 126 pay per view only helped me out in the standings, but it was only a $1 gain.
The totals of our three participants are: Mike Hammersmith of MMAHive.com ($96.63) Tyler “fightfightfight” White ($50) Zach Lambert of thesportsjury.com ($89)
I’m not wagering at all on this card and will remain at $89. The only fight I know a solid amount about both fighters is Fedor vs. Silva. I don’t see an edge in either line.
Mike Hammersmith
This is a great night of bets, and being as Fightfightfight is busy fishing for a bet and Zach avoiding this card like the plague, I’ll give you all my bets for this one. First off, we have my conservative bet of the night in Valentjin Overeem. Overeem isn’t exactly a great fighter, but this is an easy pick as he faces K-1 legend Ray Sefo. Overeem doesn’t have the chin to stand with Sefo, but has all the grappling in the world to quick tap the one-dimensional Sefo. This is easy money at anything less than -300, and I was happy to grab a bundle on this fight at -150. Next up we have an undercard bout with TUF veteran Marc Stevens, taking on hot prospect in Josh Cholish. Stevens is known as the wrestler who fell into two guillotines on the show, despite being Koscheck’s number one pick, and has a rough match-up ahead of him here. Cholish is a newer face in the sport, but has a great all-around grappling game, snappy punches, and cardio for days. Stevens will be in for a fight here, as Cholish may be the better wrestler, leaving Steven’s best method of victory as the KO. I like Cholish here at -190, as Stevens hasn’t shown an ability to operate outside of the aggressive wrestler mentality, and will be in trouble at every turn. Now we have a set of underdogs here that are all worth the wager. First up is Antonio Silva, who faces “The Last Emperor” Fedor Emelianenko in the first round of theStrikeforce Grand Prix. While I do feel Fedor will finish this with a KO in the first round, Silva is undervalued in this one, and has the tools to win this fight if he’s smart. +350 in this fight is a good investment for Silva to shock the world here with his fast stand-up and size advantage. Finally we have Chad Griggs, who takes on prospect Gian Villante in a Grand Prix reserve bout. Villante is a great athlete with wrestling and kickboxing skills, but Griggs is a huge step up in competition for him, and this is a lot closer than the odds have it. I’d call it nearly even, making a wager on Griggs at +245 a sound one.
$10 on Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva at +350 to win $35 $10 on Chad Griggs at +245 to win $24.50 $33 on John Cholish at -165 to win $20 $43 on Valentijn Overeem at -150 to win $28.67
Tyler White
“Its the ground game. Silva will want to take it down. Then, if you wish, picture Hong Man on top, with a BJJ blackbelt. He rolled nicely with Werdum, and stayed well away from any danger. Werdum>Fedor on the ground, both technique and size wise.If you’re openminded about it, watch Fedor-Rogers, among others. Fedors strikes are all power strikes, he ends up in clinch after many of them due to momentum. Now watch him in the clinch with Rogers. Gets beat up. Looks like a fish out of water, actually, though we need to give him more credit than that. Watch him get beat up when Rogers is on top. And Rogers has s**t ground game, and tds. Now watch Silva in his fights. Strong clinch control. Not great tds, but handles Werdum, and Arlovski, and its how he wins his fights. Fedor was never known for staying off the ground. So, Silva controls if not beats him up in the clinch, takes him down and beats on him. Fedor has never had a stifling guard. Fedors paths to victory: KO. Very possible, but this is no guarantee. Fedor hits hard, but watch his fights. He hits people a lot, and they dont just fall over. And he leaves himself in vulnerable positions, perfect to bring the game to Silvas world. Sub. Silva has BJJ. Fedors tricks are not likely to work here. Decision. We need to assume he wins rounds based on striking, and not being td, and I just think thats silly. Anyways, Im probably as sick of my Fedor rants now as you guys are, so… Just saying, because I think there’s money there for you peoples.
$20 on Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva at +350 to win $70 $30 on Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva at +375 to win $112.50