Anderson Silva (-220) vs. Vitor Belfort (+230)

Anderson “The Spider” Silva (27-4 MMA, 12-0 UFC) is arguably the best pound for pound fighter on the planet depending on who you ask.  He is lethal on the feet. In my opinion he is the best all around striker in MMA today.  Silva has a unique blend of Muay-Thai with boxing and Tae Kwon Do that has left him unbeatable while standing.  On the ground he is far from a slouch, and was awarded a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Black Belt in 2006 from Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. Additionally, the 35 year old has a black belt in Judo and a yellow rope in Capoeira.

Silva has been nearly untouchable since his debut in the UFC.  In his first two fights he knocked out (at the time) 19-1 Chris Leben and 22-1 Rich Franklin for the UFC title.  Since then he has had standout victories such as: a 2nd TKO win over Franklin, a submission (rear naked choke) over Dan Henderson, an absolute embarrassment of former light heavyweight champion Forrest Griffin and a dramatic come from behind triangle choke over Chael Sonnen.  His last relevant loss was at the end of 2004 when Ryo Chonan subbed him with a heel hook.

Vitor Belfort (19-8 MMA, 8-4 UFC) will attempt to become the new UFC Middleweight Champion after previously holding the Light-Heavyweight title.  Belfort is known for his awesome display of power and speed in his punching.  He has one professional boxing fight under his belt—a first round TKO victory.  “The Phenom” also has a Black Belt in BJJ and Judo.  In Shotokan, a style of Karate, Belfort possesses a blue belt.

Belfort’s career has been a rollercoaster ride.  Its highest peak would possibly be hs controversial win over Randy Couture at UFC 46 to win the belt.  Every one of his losses is to a legend in MMA.  Names like Couture, Sakuraba, Liddell, Overeem, Ortiz and Henderson are the only ones to beat him thus far.  He has won 5 straight fights with 4 knockouts, but I question the quality of his opponents.  Ivan Serati has also lost to 2 “no names” and Tomasz Drwal since the Belfort fight.  Terry Martin lost to Marvin Eastman, Belfort, and Scott Smith in a 9 month period.

I love Anderson Silva at -220 over any non-elite wrestler.  The only 2 guys to give him trouble in the last 5 years are Hendo and Sonnen, both with takedowns and control.  That isn’t going to be the case here.  It’s going to be Belforts’ striking vs. Silvas’.  In his last fight Belfort was very tentative, and waited to counterstrike the aggressive Franklin.  If that’s the strategy again, we could be in for a potential snoozer of the night award.  If neither fighter wants to engage, it could be a lot of dancing, and likely taunting from Silva.  I believe Silva is going to pick him apart at a distance with his leg kicks and at some point in the 2nd Belfort is going to be forced to be the aggressor.  Silva will be able to avoid the onslaught from Belfort and will catch him on the chin with his superior striking.  Don’t get me wrong, if Belfort can connect it could be trouble for Silva.  Silva knows this, and will be in his uber-defense mode.  Silva isn’t going to let himself get pulled into any sort of a brawl with a guy like Belfort.  I actually think Belfort is being over hyped here.  How many quality guys has the “elite striker” knocked out?  The only fighter he’s beaten in over 5 years that impresses me is Franklin.  I’ve seen Silva make a lot better opponents look silly…I haven’t seen Belfort do that.  On top of that, this is the first time Belfort has fought at 185 in about 48 months.  He hasn’t fought at all in over 16 months.  Without possible ring rust or having a hard time adjusting to the weight I really like Silva.  If any of those play in, it’s the lock of the night.  Anderson Silva via TKO, round 2.  At -220, I like a 2.2  unit bet to win 1.0 units.

UFC 126 Picks:

Anderson Silva via TKO 2

Rich Franklin via UD

Jon Jones via TKO 2

Jake Ellenberger via TKO 2

Miguel Torres via SUB 2

Demetrious Johnson via UD

Chad Mendes via UD

Donald Cerrone via SUB 3

Paul Taylor via TKO 1

Kyle Kingsbury via UD

Mike Pierce via TKO 1

UFC 126 Bets:

Anderson Silva 2.2 units to win 1.0 units

Rich Franklin 0.465 units to win 0.3 units

Miguel Torres 3.6 units to win 1.0 units

Gabe Ruediger 0.2 units to win 0.34 units

Total: 6.465 units risked to win 2.64

Total since start of Thesportsjury.com: +11.39 units