This is my breakdown of the UFC 119 event taking place in Indianapolis. The card is headlined by Frank Mir vs. Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic. The co-main event is Ryan Bader vs Antonio Rogerio Nogueira. I include my official picks and betting plays at the end of my UFC 119 analysis.
Frank Mir (-220) vs. Mirko Filipovic (+205)
Frank Mir (13-5 MMA, 11-5 UFC) holds black belts in both Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and Kenpo Karate. Mir has some of the best grappling in the heavyweight division, winning 8 times by submission. He also has some wrestling abilities, winning the 1998 Nevada State High School title.
Mir was able to hand Brock Lesnar his only loss back in 2008. A few of his other big wins would be over tough striker Cheik Kongo and Big Nog. In the last 3 years, he has lost twice, both times to powerful wrestlers: Brock Lesnar and Shane Carwin.
Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic (28-7 MMA, 4-3 UFC) is a legendary fighter from the Pride organization. He has a professional kickboxing record of 16-7. Cro Cop is the complete opposite of Mir, in their respective game plans.
Cro Cop has beaten quite a few top guys: Josh Barnett three times, Wanderlei Silva, Mark Coleman, and Kevin Randleman, albeit this was from 2004-2006. He surprised some people when he defeated Pat Barry at UFC 115.
If this fight hits the ground Cro Cop will be in trouble. If it stays standing, Mir will have some problems in the cage. Will Mir be able to take down Cro Cop? I think he will be able to clinch with Cro Cop and pull guard.. Cro Cop has looked slow and has had a hard time beating anyone of note in years. The Barry fight is hard to look at because it was against a fellow kick boxer, and Barry was extremely odd mentally beforehand. Cro Cop has only been submitted once before, by Big Nog, so I don’t believe Mir will get the tap. I see him controlling at least 2 of the 3 periods though. Frank Mir via Unanimous Decision.
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (+155) vs. Ryan Bader (-165)
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (19-3 MMA, 2-0 UFC) is looking for his 3rd straight UFC victory. “Little Nog” holds a black belt in BJJ and another in Judo. He also has some highly regarded amateur boxing credentials, getting a bronze medal at the Pan-Am games. Rogerio is well rounded with 5 knockout wins and 6 submission victories.
Back in Pride, Rogerio defeated Dan Henderson, Sakuraba, and Alistair Overeem twice. He’s only been stopped once in his career, a 23 second knockout at the hands of Sokoudjou. Shogun Rua and Vladimir Matyushenko won decisions over him as well.
Ryan “Darth” Bader (11-0 MMA, 4-0 UFC) is a powerful wrestler from Arizona State University. Bader won 2 high school state titles before becoming a two-time All-American for the Sundevils. His 120 wins rank 8th all time for a Pac Ten school.
Bader has two notable wins over Keith Jardine and Eric Schafer.
This fight is a huge step up in competition for Bader, as Schafer is a gate keeper and Jardine has been on a free fall in the last few years. If Rogerio wanted to focus on keeping this fight standing and sprawling I think he would have a slight advantage. I believe with his black belt background he won’t be afraid of getting taken down. In recent years powerful wrestlers are continually able to grind out decisions over BJJ guys, while avoiding submissions. Rogerio struggled with Jason Brilz, while Bader is twice the wrestler Brilz is. I expect a workmanlike 3 round decision. Ryan Bader via Unanimous Decision.
Matt Serra (+120) vs. Chris Lytle (-130)
Matt “The Terror” Serra (11-6 MMA, 7-6 UFC) is a 2nd degree Black Belt under Renzo Gracie. Serra has an impressive list of grappling accomplishments: 2nd place at the 2001 ADCC, 1st place at the CBJJ, and a 1st place at the Pan Am games.
Serra is a former UFC Welterweight Champion, upsetting Georges St. Pierre at UFC 69. In his 1st defense, Serra was easily dispatched by GSP. He actually beat Chris Lytle via split decision in 2006. His only other recent win is over Frank Trigg. Besides GSP, Matt Hughes defeated him at UFC 98.
Chris “Lights Out” Lytle (29-17 MMA, 8-9 UFC) has a very misleading name. He is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and has won by submission 19 times!
Lytle has beaten fighters such as Matt Brown and Paul Taylor. His biggest losses would be to Josh Koscheck, Marcus Davis and Thiago Alves.
Lytle has the edge when this fight is on the feet. He has a 13-1 professional boxing record and was once the IBA Light Heavyweight Champion. It’s hard to gauge Serra since he fights so rarely. He has only been in the Octagon 5 times in the last 4 years, and 2 of those were against GSP. Serra likes to brawl and has heavy hands, but lacks the finesse of Lytle. On the ground Serra’s BJJ has been nullified by Hughes and GSP, but that is nothing to be ashamed about. I believe that Serra will get out struck by Lytle in round 1, but will come back in the next 2 rounds and win on the ground. Matt Serra via Unanimous Decision.
Sean Sherk (+200) vs. Evan Dunham (-220)
Sean Sherk (33-4 MMA, 7-4 UFC) is making his return to the Octagon after numerous injuries. He has decent striking, but his short reach hurts him.
“The Muscle Shark” beat Kenny Florian at UFC 64 to win the UFC Lightweight Title. He has also gotten by Hermes Franca, Nick Diaz and Tyson Griffin. Sherk’s recent losses have come at the hands of BJ Penn and Frankie Edgar.
Evan Dunham (11-0 MMA, 4-0 UFC) is BJJ Black Belt with 6 submission wins.
Dunham has a couple big wins, beating Tyson Griffin and Efrain Escudero.
Given Dunham’s reach advantage, Sherk would be unwise to keep this fight standing. If he approaches this fight like he did the Edgar fight, he will be out pointed. If Sherk goes back to his wrestling roots, there is a decent chance he will be able to grind out a decision. I don’t know enough about Sherk’s game plan to be confident in this pick, but as a huge underdog, I think he has some value. Evan Dunham via Unanimous Decision.
Melvin Guillard (-160) vs. Jeremy Stephens (+140)
Melvin “The Young Assassin” Guillard (24-8 MMA, 7-4 UFC) is a Greg Jackson Gym athlete. Guillard has very fast hands and is a former Louisiana State High School State Champion wrestler.
Guillard has beaten the likes of Dennis Siver, Gleison Tibau, and Marcus Davis. Every single one of his losses in the UFC are via submission. He has tapped against Nate Diaz, Rich Clementi, Joe Stevenson and Josh Neer.
Jeremy Stephens (18-5 MMA, 5-4 UFC) has very heavy hands and trains with the Arena Team.
Stephens has wins over Cole Miller, Rafael dos Anjos and Sam Stout. His notable losses are to Gleison Tibau, Joe Lauzon, and Spencer Fischer.
Neither one of these athletes has ever been knocked out, but I believe it’s nearly inevitable with these two strikers going at it. The wild card is Greg Jackson’s game plan. If this fight stays standing I think Stephens has the slightest edge given the power advantage. If Guillard’s game plan involves trying to secure a takedown with his better wrestling, he has a strong path to victory. Based on the ways to win, and better camp, I am going with Melvin Guillard via Unanimous Decision.
C.B. Dollaway (-295) vs. Joe Doerksen (+275)
C.B “The Doberman” Dollaway (10-2 MMA, 4-2 UFC) is a former NCAA All-American wrestler for Arizona State University. Before transferring to the Pac-Ten school, Dollaway won a JUCO National Title for Colby Community College.
Dollaway was on season 7 of The Ultimate Fighter. He picked up the first loss of his career via armbar to Amir Sadollah at the finale. Tom Lawlor defeated Dollaway at UFC 100, giving him his 2nd loss. His somewhat notable wins would be Jesse Taylor, Mike Massenzio, and Goran Reljic.
Joe “El Dirte” Doerksen (46-12 MMA, 2-5 UFC) has won an amazing 33 wins via submission. Doerksen has a black belt in BJJ as well.
Over his lengthy career, he has defeated such fighters as Tom Lawlor, Patrick Cote and Denis Kang. Some of the guys that have beaten him are Nate Marquardt, Jason MacDonald twice, and Paulo Filho.
I believe that Dollaway will be getting takedowns early in this fight, due to a combination of his wrestling and Doerksen’s lack thereof. Once it hits the ground, Dollaway should be able to administer some ground and pound and avoid a submission for 3 rounds. Dollaway via Unanimous Decision is the safe pick here, but at these odds I think Doerksen will warrant a small play. Dollaway has struggled with submissions and Doerksen has good ones.
Matt Mitrione (-140) vs. Joey Beltran (+130)
Matt “Meathead” Mitrione (2-0 MMA, 2-0 UFC) is a former NFL athlete, playing for the NY Giants and Minnesota Vikings. Mitrione has beaten Marcus Jones and Kimbo Slice via TKO. He has pretty solid punches, and a long 82” reach.
Joey “The Mexicutioner” Beltran (12-3 MMA, 2-0 UFC) is fairly well rounded and is coming off big wins over Tim Hague and Rolles Gracie.
I see Mitrione winning a standup battle in this fight. He has a 7 inch reach advantage, and his punches appear to have more power behind them than Beltran’s. Matt Mitrione via TKO Round 2.
Thiago Tavares (-290) Pat Audinwood (+260)
Thiago Tavares (14-3 MMA, 4-3 UFC) has a black belt in both BJJ and Judo. He has beaten Manny Gamburyan and fought Nik Lentz to a draw. His only defeats are to Tyson Griffin, Matt Wiman and Kurt Pellegrino.
Pat Audinwood (9-0 MMA, 0-0 UFC) has one of the worst nicknames in the UFC. He goes by “Awesomely Awesome.” Audinwood has a wrestling background and is signed to a 4 fight contract with the UFC
I’m expecting Thiago Tavares to get this fight down to the ground via his Judo and then work a submission. Thiago Tavares via submission Round 2.
Steve Lopez (EV) vs. Waylon Lowe (-110)
Steve Lopez (12-2 MMA, 0-1 UFC) is coming off of a loss to Jim Miller at UFC 103.
Waylon Lowe (8-3 MMA, 0-1 UFC) is a former 3 time Division 2 National Champion wrestling for Findlay University. Lowe lost to Melvin Guillard in his debut.
I think Lowe’s wrestling prowess will determine where this fight takes place. I expect him to grind out a 3 round decision. Waylon Lowe via Split Decision.
TJ Grant (-150) vs. Julio Paulino (+145)
TJ Grant (15-4 MMA, 2-2 UFC) is a Canadian fighter with wins over Forrest Petz, Ryo Chonan, and a knockout of the night win over Kevin Burns. His only UFC losses are to the undefeated Johny Hendricks and Dong Hyun Kim.
Julio Paulino (17-3 MMA, 0-1 UFC) is coming off of a loss to Mike Pierce. His only win that deserves mention is over former UFC fighter Terry Martin.
Grant has the much better ground game with 12 submission wins, and has a slight edge in the standup as well. TJ Grant via Unanimous Decision.
Mark Hunt (-240) vs. Sean McCorkle (+190)
Mark Hunt (5-6 MMA, 0-0 UFC) is finally getting his fight in the UFC due to a contract clause in the buyout of Pride. He is a former world class kick boxer, amassing a record of 30-13.
Sean McCorkle (9-0 MMA, 0-0 UFC) is listed at 6’7 and 300 pounds according to Sherdog.com. He has 4 knockouts and 4 submissions.
Do not let Hunt’s 6 MMA losses fool you. He has been beaten by Mousasi, Manhoef, Overeem, Fedor, and Josh Barnett. He has beaten Cro Cop and Wanderlei Silva.
Mark Hunt via TKO Round 1.
**My Picks ** Frank Mir Ryan Bader Matt Serra Evan Dunham Melvin Guillard C.B. Dollaway Matt Mitrione Thiago Tavares Waylon Lowe TJ Grant Mark Hunt
Since the advent of “Thesportsjury.com” I am +3.02 units, betting on 3 events. I would like to note that these betting lines are the best available at the time of this article. Depending on who you liked, you may have been able to secure more advantageous lines earlier.
My Plays
Frank Mir 1.1 units to win 0.5 units Ryan Bader 0.825 units to win 0.5 units Sean Sherk 0.25 units to win 0.5 units Joe Doerkson 0.1 units to win 0.275 units Waylon Lowe 0.35 units to win 0.3 units TJ Grant 0.5 units to win 0.33 units 3.125 units risked to win 2.405 units