The coaches from The Ultimate Fighter season 12 are set to clash at UFC 124.  Georges St-Pierre will try to defend his UFC welterweight belt for the 5th straight time. 

Georges St-Pierre (-400) vs. Josh Koscheck (+385)

Georges “Rush” St-Pierre (20-2 MMA, 14-2 UFC) is the reigning UFC welterweight champion and will be looking to further stake his claim as the greatest 170 pound fighter ever.  St-Pierre is considered by many to have the best “MMA wrestling”.  In his career GSP has amassed an incredible 62 takedowns on 76 attempts.  “Rush has a 3rd degree black belt in Kyokushin karate, a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu under Bruno Fernandes, and another black belt in the Greg Jackson created martial art, Gaidojutsu.  Out of his 20 wins, he has 8 knockouts and 5 submissions.  

The list of fighters that GSP has beaten is basically a who’s who in the welterweight division of the last 5 plus years.  Matt Hughes has been stopped by him twice.  Once via submission at UFC 79 and once via TKO at UFC 65.  His most recent notable wins are over Thiago Alves, Jon Fitch, BJ Penn twice and Josh Koscheck at UFC 74.  The Koscheck fight wasn’t a title fight, but he won a 3 round unanimous decision.  

Josh Koscheck (15-4 MMA, 13-4 UFC) was a competitor on season one of The Ultimate Fighter and an outstanding wrestler.  On TUF, Koscheck lost to Diego Sanchez in the semifinals via split-decision.  Koscheck competed for Edinboro University and was able to reach All-American status (top eight in the country) all 4 years.  He won the 2001 title at 174 pounds, outscoring his 5 opponents 41-7.  Kos is primarily a wrestler, but his striking has improved drastically since his stint on the reality show.  He trains at the AKA gym alongside fighters such as Cain Velasquez, and Jon Fitch. 3 of his last 6 wins have been via knockout.  His coach at AKA, Dave Camarillo, developed his own style of jiu-jitsu called Guerrilla Jiu-Jitsu.  Koscheck holds the rank of brown belt.

Some of the more important names that Kos has beaten in the last 3 years would include knockout artist Paul Daley, Anthony “Rumble” Johnson and Chris “Lights Out” Lytle.  Since losing to GSP at UFC 74, his only losses are to Thiago Alves and a knockout at the hands of Paulo Thiago.  Keep in mind that when he lost to Alves he took the fight on 2 weeks notice.  

Even though Koscheck has significantly improved since their last meeting, I cannot give him more than a Serra-esque punchers chance here.  I know GSP has become more or less a takedown artist with decent ground and pound as of late, but I have no doubts that his stand up is leagues ahead of Kos’s.  In their first fight they had a pretty even round 1.  Both got a takedown, but GSP had control much longer and better strikes from top position.  Round 2 was all GSP, getting a takedown and having multiple submission attempts.  Round 3 started out with GSP leg kicks and wild Koscheck strikes, but ended the last couple minutes on the ground.  GSP had a sweet counter shot off a botched attempt by Kos.  GSP’s number one attribute is his reflexes.  Anytime a fighter throws a kick that isn’t snapping, he is in on the legs before you blink.  Even though he doesn’t have the typical wrestling background, he can take down anyone once in the octagon.  Koscheck’s only path to victory is avoiding his takedowns and landing an unexpected shot.  Even if the fight doesn’t hit the ground, it is unfathomable for him to outstrike the champ enough to actually win 3 or more rounds.  If Kos is able to get a few takedowns of his own, I don’t think he has the tools to do any serious damage or submit GSP.  Koscheck wasn’t able to do much more than control Paul Daley on the ground and Daley has no ground game to speak of. 

I don’t foresee St-Pierre finishing Koscheck though.  I believe he will get takedowns, but be generally conservative in his attacks when he is in half guard or side control.  Also an important intangible for this fight is the atmosphere.  After Koscheck’s antics following his last win in Canada and the overall feel of trash talk to their idol, this crowd is going to make the Cleveland Cavaliers booing of LeBron James look like they were close friends.  Koscheck has been booed before, including the last time he fought GSP in Las Vegas, so I don’t feel this will affect him too much.  I believe this will be a workmanlike performance by St-Pierre, securing takedowns over the former national champion all 5 rounds.  Georges St-Pierre is going to win a lopsided unanimous decision over Josh Koscheck.  No bets for me at this line though.

UFC 124 Main Card Picks:

Georges St-Pierre over Josh Koscheck via unanimous decision Stefan Struve over Sean McCorkle via submission, round 2 Jim Miller over Charles Oliveira via unanimous decision Joe Stevenson over Mac Danzig via TKO, round 2 Thiago Alves over John Howard via TKO, round 2

UFC 124 Main Card Bets:

I lost 0.17 units at TUF 12, bringing my total to +4.54 units since the start of thesportsjury.com

Jim Miller 0.5 units to win 0.55 units Joe Stevenson 2 units to win 0.67 units Thiago Alves 2.8 units to win 1.0 units

Undercard picks

Dan Miller via submission round 3

Mark Bocek via unanimous decision

Jess Bongfeldt via unanimous decision

TJ Grant via TKO 3

John Makdessi TKO 3

Matt Riddle via unanimous decision