Matt Hughes (+150) vs. BJ Penn (-155)

Matt Hughes (45-7 MMA, 18-5 UFC) is one of only 7 fighters currently in the UFC Hall of Fame.  He was a former college wrestler becoming a 2 time Division 1 All-American, as well as a 2 time Junior College All-American.  Hughes transitions his wrestling to MMA very well.  He likes to secure takedowns and ground and pound.  

Over the course of his career Hughes has submitted 18 fighters, while getting a TKO or KO over 17.  I’m not going to list off all of the notable fighters he has beaten since that list is incredible.  Rather, the guys he’s beaten in the last 3 years are: Elite Black Belts Renzo Gracie and Ricardo Almeida.  Hughes was able to submit Almeida in the 1st round via anaconda choke.  Also Black Belts, but fighters that like to strike a bit more, Matt Serra and Chris Lytle lost to Hughes.  The only fighters to beat him in that same time frame are Thiago Alves via TKO and GSP via armbar.  

BJ Penn (15-7 MMA, 11-6 UFC) could very well be joining Hughes in the UFC Hall of Fame in a few years as well.  Arguably the most dominant lightweight in UFC history, Penn is now returning to the welterweight division to have a rubber match with Hughes.  BJ has an incredible history of Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu before he became a fighter.  He was actually the first non-Brazilian to win the Mundials or World Jiu-Jitsu Championships.  In my opinion he has the best boxing out of the 155’s this side of Frankie Edgar of course.  

I think the most important fights in his career to look at for this fight are the multiple times he has fought at 170.  Inside the UFC, Penn has beaten Hughes at UFC 46, lost to GSP at UFC 58, lost to Hughes at UFC 63 and lost to GSP at UFC 94.  When he left the UFC from 2004-2005 Penn beat Duane Ludwig, Rodrigo and Renzo Gracie, but lost a fight with Lyoto Machida in Japan.  Penn is moving up to fight Hughes after losing twice in a row to Frankie Edgar.  The first fight was a close decision and could be debatable in regards to who won, but in the sequel Edgar easily won the fight.

This fight was by far the hardest one to pick on the main card.  After much deliberation, I am going with my gut on this one.  I like Hughes to pull the upset in the rubber match, and here is how I see it playing out.  First of all, I try not to think about their previous fights too much considering that they happened 4 and 6 ½ years ago.  Matt Hughes’s degradation is being overrated.  His only losses in 6 years are to the best fighter on the planet in my opinion, Georges St. Pierre, and once to Thiago Alves.  There is always the lingering question, “Did BJ train hard for this fight”?  This will not be asked about Matt Hughes.  He always comes in good shape and ready to fight.  I believe BJ has noticeably lost a step, and Hughes will be able to take him down multiple times just like Edgar.  Penn is not going to get quicker fighting up a weight class, and he gives up quite a bit in the strength department.  Penn might be able to avoid the takedown in round 1 and win the striking battle to win the 1st.  But in rounds 2 and 3 once the fighters cardio begins to get pushed a bit, I see Hughes succeeding in getting the fight to the ground.  I’d like to see Hughes advance to half-guard and work on keeping him down while maintaining enough offense to prevent the referee from standing it back up.  I could even envision one of the judges giving another round to BJ if Hughes isn’t active enough.  I like Matt Hughes to pull the slight upset and win via split-decision.