Quinton “Rampage” Jackson (+220) vs. Lyoto Machida (-230)

Rampage Jackson (30-8 MMA, 5-2 UFC) has been one of the more successful Pride superstars to come over to the UFC.  Jackson has a background in wrestling and is the second fighter on the card, after Gerald Harris, to have highlight reel slams.  He likes to slug it out in a style not all that different than Wanderlei Silva’s.  

Since Rampage has been in the UFC his career has been a path of peaks and valleys.  The first highlight of his UFC tenure was knocking out Chuck Liddell at UFC 71 to win the light heavyweight belt.  He then defended it against Pride Champion Dan Henderson at UFC 75.  He then hit a low point after losing to underdog Forrest Griffin at UFC 86.  After losing his first two fights against Wanderlei Silva in Pride, Jackson redeemed himself with a knockout over “The Axe Murderer at UFC 92.  His last appearance in the octagon resulted in a unanimous decision loss to Rashad Evans.

Lyoto Machida (16-1 MMA, 8-1 UFC) is looking to get back in the title picture and settle his score with Shogun Rua.  “The Dragon” is one of the few fighters that has a strong karate background.  Machida also was an accomplished sumo wrestler, winning the Brazilian Sumo Championships twice.  On the ground Machida is well versed in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and holds a black belt.

Machida’s initial rise to his championship included knockouts over Thiago Silva and Rashad Evans.  In his first defense of the belt he won a controversial decision over Shogun Rua.  When they had there rematch at UFC 113, Rua didn’t leave it up to the judges, knocking out Machida in the 1st round.  

This is about the worst matchup possible for Rampage among top 5 guys at 205.  The only way I can see Rampage winning is somehow getting into a slugfest with Machida and catching him.  I highly doubt Lyoto is going to “stand and bang” with Rampage.  Machida has arguably the best defensive movement in the weight class.  In his fight with Rashad, Rampage looked slow and plodding, and Machida is much quicker.  If Machida wants this fight standing I believe he is going to cripple Rampage’s legs.  If that happens Rampage is going to lower his hands and I think a knockout will result.  The only other feasible way I see this fight going is Machida using his sumo skills to clinch and throw Rampage to the ground and grind out a unanimous decision.  Rampage is past his prime and seems to be concerned with his life after fighting.  All in all, this is my favorite bet of the card and I think Machida is a lock.  Machida via TKO, round 3.

My main card picks are: Lyoto Machida via TKO 3 over Rampage Jackson Matt Hughes via Unanimous Decision over BJ Penn Gerald Harris via TKO 2 over Maiquel Falcao Phil Davis via Unanimous Decision over Tim Boetsch George Sotiropoulos via Submission 3 over Joe Lauzon

After winning 0.4 units at UFC 122, our running total since the start of thesportsjury.com is +7.56 units.  My UFC 123 bets are:

Lyoto Machida 3.45 units to win 1.5 units Matt Hughes 0.4 units to win 0.6 units George Sotiropoulos 2.15 units to win 1 unit

Without doing seperate write ups for the undercard bouts, I will post my picks here.

Mark Munoz over Aaron Simpson via Unanimous Decision

Brian Foster over Matt Brown via TKO 2

Karo Parisyan over Dennis Hallman via Unanimous Decision

Edson Barboza over Mike Lullo via TKO 1

Paul Kelly over TJ O’Brien via TKO 3

Tyson Griffin over Nik Lentz via Unanimous Decision