Phil Davis (-525) vs. Tim Boetsch (+450)
Phil Davis (7-0 MMA, 3-0 UFC) is a highly accomplished college wrestler. While at Penn State University, Davis placed 7th, 2nd, 5th and 1st his senior year. At the NCAA tournament in 2005 he actually beat Ryan Bader 3-1. “Mr. Wonderful” primarily trains with Alliance MMA in San Diego, but he also works out with Black House and American Kickboxing Academy from time to time. In Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Davis holds a blue belt under Lloyd Irvin.
In his young UFC career Davis has submitted fellow rising star Alexander Gustafsson and put on 2 grappling clinics in his total control victories over Brian Stann and Rodney Wallace.
Tim Boetsch (12-3 MMA, 3-2 UFC) is on his 2nd stint in the UFC after he was dropped after UFC 96. “The Barbarian” has some decent wrestling, credentials including 4 Maine high school state titles, for whatever that’s worth. From what I can find, Boetsch finished his college career with an 11-29 record. He has been training at Matt Hume’s AMC MMA gym in Washington.
Boetsch’s UFC victories are over journeymen David Heath, Michael Patt and Todd Brown. All of his losses are to respectable opponents. He lost by decision to both Vladimir Matyushenko and Jason Brilz. Matt Hamill won via TKO over Boetsch at UFC Fight Night 13.
Phil Davis should easily walk through Boetsch here in this light heavyweight showdown. Boetsch does not have 1 punch knockout power and that is his path to victory here. The Barbarian will have nothing at all to offer on the ground against Davis. In a few of Boetsch’s fights his cardio was average at best. Davis won’t have any problem taking him down early and often. I feel cardio is the key for how this fight turns out. Davis is one of the best athletes in the UFC and he will be able to push the pace for 15 minutes. If Boetsch comes into the fight in much better shape I think he will be able to make the fight last all 3 rounds, ending in a losing effort. If he gasses in the 2nd or 3rd round, Davis will take advantage of the let up and get the submission or TKO due to strikes. I’ll take Boetsch’s word on his much improved cardio. (via heavy.com interview) I also think Matt Hume will have him ready to go for the fight. Either way, I don’t see Boetsch’s resiliency able to match Davis’s pure grappling and athleticism. All that said, I can’t recommend a bet at the current odds. -500 is too high in MMA against a veteran fighter. Phil Davis wins a dominant Unanimous Decision.