Dan Henderson (-240) vs. Renato “Babalu” Sobral (+220)
Dan Henderson (25-8 MMA, 0-1 Strikeforce) is coming off of a loss to former Strikeforce Middleweight Champion, Jake Shields. Henderson is an elite Greco Roman wrestler, but has an incredible right hand. His standup isn’t that fast, but his hands have a lot of power behind them. Before the loss to Shields, Henderson had one of my personal favorite knockouts over Michael Bisping at UFC 100. Other wins in the last 3 years are Rich Franklin and Rousimar Palhares. Anderson Silva and Rampage Jackson defeated him before the Palhares bout. Henderson trains at Team Quest and this is his first fight at 205 since January of 2009.
Babalu Sobral (36-8 MMA, 3-1 Strikeforce) is the former Strikeforce Light Heavyweight Champion. He has a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and has 18 submission victories. He lost the belt to Gegard Mousasi. Babalu holds notable victories over: Sokoudjou, Chael Sonnen and Shogun Rua. Besides Mousasi, fighters that have beaten him in the last 4 years are Chuck Liddell and Jason Lambert.
I like Dan Henderson to control the cage in this fight. I believe Babalu will be on the defense most of all 3 rounds, wary of Henderson’s power. At some point they will likely clinch, but Henderson has a huge advantage there. “Hendo” will get the takedown, but I don’t foresee him being able to land enough shots to finish this fight or Babalu being able to pull off a submission on Henderson. I like Henderson to win all 3 rounds with a mixture of more aggressive standup and landing a few clinch led takedowns. Dan Henderson via unanimous decision.
My Strikeforce St. Louis Main Card Picks:
Dan Henderson via unanimous decision
Matt Lindland via submission, round 2
Paul Daley via TKO, round 2
Antonio Silva via TKO, round 1
Ovince St. Preux via TKO, round 2
I didn’t place any bets on this card, but there seems to be some value in Matt Lindland and possibly Bigfoot Silva.