Nate Marquardt (-210) vs. Yushin Okami (+180)

Nate “The Great” Marquardt (30-9 MMA, 9-3 UFC) is back in the cage after a bit of an odd victory over Rousimar Palhares.  Palhares stopped mid-fight to complain about “greased legs” and Marquardt capitalized with a TKO win in the 1st round.

Marquardt is one of the top fighters out of Greg Jackson’s camp in Albuquerque New Mexico, but also has his own gym in Colorado.  He holds a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu along with a 2nd degree black belt in Pancrase MMA/jiu-jitsu.  

In the last few years Marquardt has beaten numerous top fighters and is looking to get back in a 5 round title fight with the winner of Anderson Silva and Vitor Belfort.  Rousimar Palhares, Demian Maia, and Martin Kampmann are his recent notable wins.  The only fighters that have defeated him in the UFC are Chael Sonnen, with his unstoppable takedowns; Anderson Silva, who has yet to lose in the UFC; and a split decision loss to Thales Leites, in which he was penalized 2 points.  

Yushin “Thunder” Okami (25-5 MMA, 9-2 UFC) is probably best known for being the last man to defeat Anderson Silva, although it was a disqualification due to illegal kick.  Okami has good boxing and used to primarily use takedowns to get some ground and pound in.  I say “used to” because 15 of his 18 career UFC takedowns were in his first 4 fights.  

In the last 3 years the only win that he has that I can put much notice into was his split decision win over Mark Munoz.  Okami has also beaten Lucio Linhares, Dean Lister, Evan Tanner, and Jason MacDonald in that timeframe, but all 4 of those fighters have since been 2-5 in the UFC and cut.  The only fighters to defeat Okami since signing with the UFC have been Chael Sonnen and Rich Franklin.  

The line on this fight is set perfectly in my opinion.  -210 is about a 67% chance for Nate, and +180 would be about 36%.  I like Marquardt to take this fight, but Okami has more than a fair shot here.  I see Nate keeping this fight on the feet and basically out pointing Okami for 3 rounds.  I don’t think Okami’s striking is on the same level as Marquardt’s, and if taking Nate down wasn’t his gameplan going into this fight, it will be after being outstruck for the first round or two.  Marquardt should have enough confidence in his standup to know the only way he is losing this fight is if Okami can take him down and apply some ground and pound.  I’m guessing Greg Jackson feels the same way, and they have been working on takedown defense endlessly.  Don’t be worried about his takedown defense in regards to his fight versus Sonnen.  Chael Sonnen is literally a world class wrestler, and can take down probably any fighter that is at 205 or lighter.  Yushin Okami has good wrestling, but that’s a far cry from Sonnen’s.  Even if Okami is able to get a takedown, I don’t think he has the top control to hold him down.  Marquardt isn’t going to try to get in a jiu-jitsu match from the bottom, and will be looking to get back to his feet as soon as possible.  I believe this fight will go the distance, but could see Okami opening up a bit after losing the first two rounds and Marquardt capitalizing.  I’ll stick with the conservative pick of **Nate Marquardt via Unanimous Decision. ** 

I won’t be doing a thorough breakdown of the undercard, but my picks are as follows:

Kris McCray via Submission Round 2 Karlos Vemola via TKO Round 1 Nick Osipczak via Submission Round 3 Pascal Krauss via Submission Round 1 Vladimir Matyushenko via Unanimous Decision Kyle Noke via TKO Round 3 Goran Reljic via Unanimous Decision Amir Sadollah via TKO Round 3 Dennis Siver via Unanimous Decision Jorge Rivera via TKO Round 2 Nate Marquardt via Unanimous Decision

After UFC 121 profits of 0.96 units, my running total since the start of thesportsjury.com is a gain of 7.16 units.  I only like the value in 3 fights off of this card.

Dennis Siver- 0.5 units to win 0.4 units Jorge Rivera- 0.55 units to win 0.5 units

Good luck to all fellow bettors out there! Lets keep winning!