Jonathan Brookins (-240) vs. Michael Johnson (+220)

Jonathan Brookins (11-3 MMA) is a former state champion wrestler from Oregon.  He later went on to wrestle at Lindenwood University, but ended up getting expelled.  On “The Ultimate Fighter” Brookins won via decision over Ran Weathers, submitted both Sevak Magakian and Sako Chivitchian in the first round, and won a unanimous decision over Kyle Watson.  Brookins has exhibited his superiority in grappling over his opponents in every fight.  At WEC 36 Brookins lost via TKO in the 3rd to current featherweight and #3 ranked pound for pound fighter on thesportsjury Jose Aldo.  

Michael Johnson (8-4 MMA)    also has a wrestling background.  He competed for Marquette High in St Louis, and later Meramec Community College.  On the reality show Johnson won his opening fight against undefeated Pablo Garza.  Garza is now fighting on the undercard of the finale against Fredson Paixao.  In his second fight he choked out Aaron Wilkinson in the 3rd round.  Johnson then won via decision over Alex Caceres aka Bruce LeeRoy and Nam Phan.  

I am going to go with my gut instinct on this one.  I believe Johnson can stuff the bulk of Brookins’ takedowns.  Brookins has looked phenomenal on the show, but I think the level of fighters he has faced is significantly less than Johnson’s competition.  I believe both Nam Phan and Bruce LeeRoy could have beaten Brookins’ entire path to the finals.  In Brookins’ last fight his standup looked pretty shoddy and he appeared quite uncomfortable striking.  Johnson is an unorthodox striker, but he has some decent power in his hands.  If Brookins is unable to get this fight to the ground I cannot see him out striking his way to a victory.  I’m sure Johnson has been working on stopping Brookins’ takedowns since the show wrapped up taping.  He knows what Brookins needs to do and I doubt he will be too concerned about Brookins striking game.  I believe after Johnson stuffs a takedown of Brookins he will make a counter-attack and score a takedown of his own.  I don’t see him being able to finish this fight, but I will predict **Michael Johnson via Unanimous Decision.   **

Bet- 0.3 units to win 0.66 units.