Just 3 weeks left in the NFL’s regular season to determine who will get into playoffs and who will be watching at home with you and I. 23 of the 32 teams are still mathematically alive, but the only one to have clinched a spot so far is New England. Not only the Wild Card teams are a long way from being determined, but the battle for each division championship is no more than 2 games out of reach for the teams currently trailing. Now if I were a betting man (which I am), I would put my money on each current division holding onto their lead, with the exception of the AFC South. I’m not hopping off the Indianapolis bandwagon just yet. This Sunday will be their most important game yet as they face the Jaguars head to head. I would stay far, far away from any wagers on the crapshoot NFC West however, where even the 4-9 Arizona Cardinals could still emerge as division champion. Wow, anything really can happen in the NFL. In this case, that’s not such a good thing though.
So this means my AFC playoff teams at the moment would be New England, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis and Kansas City. With the Wild Cards, I’d find it tough to pick against the Jets and Ravens. Then in the NFC, that of course means I like the Giants, Chicago, Atlanta and…St. Louis? Seattle? San Francisco? Take your pick. They’ll lose in the Wild Card game anyway. The Wild Card favorites have to be Philadelphia and Nawlins. It of course all comes down to schedule. At 8-5, Tampa Bay is on the outside looking in right now, trailing the loser of the runner-up of the NFC East by 1 game. However, they defeated Washington last week (with a little luck involved on a missed extra point), host Detroit this Sunday, then remain at home when the slumping Seahawks visit in Week 16. This gives them the strong ability to pull off a 3-game win streak before the season-ending division game at the Saints. A game where nothing could be on the line for the defending Super Bowl Champions (they could have the 5th seed wrapped up or homefield advantage sealed if Atlanta falls), but everything could be at stake for the Bucs. So there’s a small chance they could not even have to face Drew Brees and the starting offensive lineup and sneak into the playoffs after a 3-13 season in 2009. Well, enough foreshadowing into January. Let’s stay in the present. Here are your Week 15 picks.
Last Week: 10-6 .586
**Season: **121-87 .582
**MNF: **9-7
**No-Brainers: **8-6
**Teams Used: **Dolphins, Packers, Patriots, Colts, Saints, Steelers, Ravens, Titans, Giants, Chiefs, Falcons, Jets, Chargers, Browns
Thursday, December 16th
8:20
San Francisco @ San Diego
Alex Smith returned as the Niners’ starting QB last week and did a great job. Both teams are battling for their playoff lives. Antonio Gates is likely out for the second straight game, but Philip Rivers will lead the Chargers to the win. Maybe closer than I expect, with both teams coming off a short week it’s hard to know what to expect.
San Francisco 16
San Diego 27
** **
Sunday, December 19th
1:00
** **Cleveland @ Cincinnati
If the Bengals were to end their 10-game slide, this would be the likeliest time for it to happen. They’re playing a familiar division rival that they always play close, and Colt McCoy could show some rust after coming back as the starter after missing 2 weeks. However, the Bengals don’t know which way is up and which way is down, and all they seem to know how to do is find ways to lose. No matter who they play, no matter how close the game, they find a way. If not because of McCoy, because of Hillis.
Cleveland 23
Cincinnati 20
Washington @ Dallas
The Skins are coming off a heartbreaker where a missed hold on an extra point would’ve sent it to overtime against Tampa Bay. Dallas has continued to play well under Jason Garrett, losing by just 3 to the Eagles a week ago. Washington is dysfunctional and Dallas will take full advantage.
Washington 14
Dallas 31
Houston @ Tennessee
Houston’s offense looked extremely impressive last week, driving for 95 and 99 yards against Baltimore in an overtime loss on Monday night. I see no reason why the Titans’ losing streak doesn’t continue here.
Houston 21
Tennessee 17
Jacksonville @ Indianapolis
This game all depends on which Peyton Manning shows up. The one that throws 4 touchdowns or the one that throws 4 picks. The Colts need this one bad. I think they can contain MJD just enough to get a very close win and pull even with the Jags in the AFC South.
Jacksonville 24
Indianapolis 26
Kansas City @ St. Louis
Matt Cassel will likely be back under center after missing Week 14 where the Chiefs took a 31-0 slugging from San Diego. Matt Cassel’s importance was obviously underappreciated by many, including myself. With Cassel back, the Chiefs should roll and keep their AFC West lead safe.
Kansas City 30
St. Louis 19
Buffalo @ Miami
The Bills and Dolphins both scored upsets last week, over Cleveland and the Jets respectively. The Dolphins have been playing much better after looking like their season could be done, and with Brandon Marshall back, it only gives them that much stronger of a chance.
Buffalo 10
Miami 16
** **
Detroit @ Tampa Bay
Josh Freeman has been one of the league’s biggest surprises this season. He may only be in his 2nd year, but he plays far more maturely. He always seems to make the smart play and not get rattled. Even though the Lions did a good job controlling the line of scrimmage against Green Bay last week, I look for Freeman and LaGarette Blount to both have a big game. There should be plenty of cannons firing for the home team.
Detroit 14
Tampa Bay 31 NO-BRAINER
Arizona @ Carolina
The Cardinals might have put up 43 points against Denver last week, but if you take a look at their offense, there any sign of one other than running back Tim Hightower. Nearly all the points came from special teams and defense. I can’t see that happening against Carolina, who I believe still have another win in them. Jonathan Stewart could have a big day on the ground.
Arizona 13
Carolina 17
Nawlins @ Baltimore
This past Monday night, the Ravens seemed to have the game well in hand, leading Houston 28-7. Then their defense collapsed, giving up huge drives for touchdowns and eventually it went to overtime. The defense couldn’t get off the field and looked absolutely winded. If this happened against Matt Schaub, what do you think Drew Brees will do to them?
Nawlins 28
Baltimore 20
Philadelphia @ NY Giants
This should be a great battle with the winner claiming sole possession of the NFC East lead, at least for the time being. It’s hard to pick against the Eagles, with the way Vick and McCoy looked this past Sunday night. Not to mention DeSean Jackson’s blazing speed, racking up 210 yards on just 4 catches. One in which he had time to stop at the goal line, turn around and fall backwards into the endzone. However, it’s even harder for me to pick against the running combination of Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs, who both had themselves a 100-yard game last week versus Minnesota. I look for plenty of carries for the two-headed monster which will help the Giants control the time of posession. The Eagles have beaten them 4 straight times, but I give the slight edge to New York.
Philadelphia 21
NY Giants 23
4:05
** **Atlanta @ Seattle
The Falcons will pick up right where they left off last week against Carolina, with complete and utter dominance. Matt Hasselbeck looked terrible against San Francisco, throwing 4 interceptions. There might be more of those to look forward to.
Atlanta 37
Seattle 10
4:15
** **NY Jets @ Pittsburgh
After looking like the most complete team in the NFL until a couple weeks ago, the Jets look very vulnerable now. That’s mainly due to the play of Mark Sanchez, who was nearly pulled from last week’s game where they loss to Miami 10-6. Against Pittsburgh’s defense, I don’t see his performance getting much better any time soon. A low-scoring game, but still a convincing win for the Steelers.
NY Jets 9
Pittsburgh 19
Denver @ Oakland
Darren McFadden was officially back last week, putting up over 200 yards in total offense and visiting the endzone 3 times in a tough 38-31 loss against Jacksonville. Denver continued to look disgraceful. It doesn’t get much worse than losing by 30 to the Arizona Cardinals. If ever there were a time when the Raiders shouldn’t have to worry, at home against Denver is it.
Denver 12
Oakland 27
8:20
** **After the concussion Aaron Rodgers suffered last week, he’s listed as questionable. Going strictly by what I’ve read, it looks like he’ll give it a go Sunday night. How effective he’ll be is a whole other story. New England’s defense played terrific last week in the Chicago blizzard. Top that off with the performance of Tom Brady, and the Patriots look like an unbeatable team right now. I don’t think the Packers are the team to change that conception.
Green Bay 14
New England 29
Monday, December 20th
8:30
** **Chicago @ Minnesota
Brett Favre’s career could be over sooner than expected and Tarvaris Jackson was placed on IR today. The Vikings went out and signed Patrick Ramsey, but the starter will likely be rookie 3rd string QB Joe Webb. I fully expect the Bears to bounce back and make Webb’s first start one he’d soon like to forget in what are expected to be freezing conditions at TCF Bank Stadium. The game obviously had to be moved from the Metrodome after the roof collapsed last Sunday due to the piling snow. It’ll be an ugly win, but that’s how football is played in the black and blue division.
Chicago 24
Minnesota 7