Here we are, in the 4th quarter of the NFL’s regular season. To most anyone’s surprise, the Jaguars, Chiefs and Bears are all atop their respective divisions. Will they be able to hold off the competition down the stretch and make the unthinkable become reality? How much will the weather factor in this Sunday? The snow has hit and the numbing winds will be swarming. December is officially here. These are the elements football was meant to be played in, and I can only hope we’re lucky enough to see those type of conditions when Super Bowl XLVIII will be played in New Meadowlands Stadium in February of 2014.

Maybe even more surprising than the Jags, Chiefs and Bears’ impressive records is the sinking Titanic otherwise known as the Indianapolis Colts, with Peyton Manning doing his best to steer clear of the looming iceberg. The ship is already taking on water, and they find themselves one game behind the Jags and currently out of the playoffs at 6-6. The interceptions have blindsided us all. He had just 4 in his first 9 games of the season. Then came 3 against the Patriots. Then 4 against the Chargers. Finally, pile on another 4 versus Dallas last week. Talk about surreal. Yes, he’s working with new receivers, but usually he makes Pro Bowlers out of them. This is very new territory and we haven’t seen the eldest Manning look this bad since his first playoff games against Belichick’s Super Bowl Patriot teams. We’ll find out tonight if an even further slumping Tennessee lining up opposite of him will be just the thing to get it turned around.Here they are, your Week 14 NFL Picks. 

Last Week: 11-5 .688

Season: 111-81 .578

MNF: 8-6

No-Brainers: 8-5

Teams Used: Dolphins, Packers, Patriots, Colts, Saints, Steelers, Ravens, Titans, Giants, Chiefs, Falcons, Jets, Chargers

Thursday, December 9th

8:20

Indianapolis @ TennesseeBoth teams are strugg-a-ling to say the least, and the winner of this game will have proven nothing other than they’re just not the worst in the division. I keep waiting for Peyton to look like his old self, and it keeps not happening. The Titans’ season is already over. If Manning and the Colts can’t get the job done, so is theirs. I have to believe this is where the late surge begins.

Indianapolis 27

Tennessee 17

Sunday, December 12th 

1:00

Green Bay @ Detroit

Logic lead me to believe that Chicago would handle the Lions without any obstacles. It took a 4th quarter comeback and 10 unanswered points for them to get the win at all. With the Green Bay passing game being that much better than Chicago’s, I can’t see a repeat of a near Detroit upset this week.

Green Bay 30

Detroit 13

NY Giants @ Minnesota

The big question is will Brett Favre’s streak come to an end with the shoulder injury that knocked him out on the 3rd play of the game against Buffalo last week? Favre or no Favre, the better team here is New York. The D-line of Minnesota has been nowhere near as good as last year, and can only mean good things for the tag team of Jacobs and Bradshaw.

NY Giants 24

Minnesota 17

Cleveland @ Buffalo

Jake Delhomme will get his 3rd straight start for the injured Colt McCoy, but this game will be all about Peyton Hillis. He will pound the rock downfield all day long, giving the Buffalo defense fits. Have I mentioned how much this guy reminds me of one of my all-time favorites, Mike Alstott? Makes me glad sometimes to have Cleveland as my local team, so I’m able to watch him run the ball each week. The Browns play like a team much better than their 5-7 record. 

Cleveland 20 NO-BRAINER

Buffalo 10

Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh

Last week the Bengals took the Saints to the wire, while the Steelers outwilled the Ravens for sole posession of the AFC North lead. Pittsburgh shouldn’t have much trouble handing Cincinnati their 10th straight loss with their physical defense and never-say-die attitude on both sides of the ball. 

Cincinnati 14

Pittsburgh 23

Tampa Bay @ Washington

The Bucs should come out with all cannons firing after letting a 24-14 lead slip away to Atlanta last week. Washington has fallen apart in recent weeks and with Albert Haynesworth suspended, LaGarette Blount could have a big day on the ground. Josh Freeman continues to play well under pressure also, not even letting a big game like last week’s against Atlanta get him rattled to force mistakes. Now that they’ve fallen to 7-5, it’s a must win.

Tampa Bay 20

Washington 6

Atlanta @ Carolina

All the Panthers have to play for is pride, but the Falcons have a 1-game division lead they’re trying to hang onto over the Saints. Should be a big game for the trio of Ryan, Turner and White. Tony Gonzalez is questionable after rolling his ankle last week, but whether he suits up or not, I expect a blowout in this one.

Atlanta 28

Carolina 7

Oakland @ Jacksonville

The Raiders pulled a major upset last week, defeating San Diego 28-13. They’ll take on MJD who has 5 straight 100-yard games and is getting a lot of MVP talk as of late. I expect a close, hard-fought win for the Jags on their home field.

Oakland 15

Jacksonville 17

4:05

Seattle @ San Francisco

Alex Smith returns as the Niners’ starting QB in a last-ditch effort by Mike Singletary to go on a season-ending winning streak to sneak into the playoffs. Very unlikely, but I do think he gives them a better shot to win than Troy Smith. Not enough though against Seattle, who should feed Marshawn Lynch plenty of carries after a 3 score game against Carolina a week ago.

Seattle 21

San Francisco 19

St. Louis @ Nawlins

Drew Brees and rookie Sam Bradford could find themselves in a shootout in the Superdome. I expect plenty of offense, mostly through the air of course. Drew Brees wins that battle nearly everytime, but especially definitely against the st. Louis secondary. 

St. Louis 23

Nawlins 33

4:15

Miami @ NY Jets

The Phins should think about calling in sick for this one. Rex Ryan and his team will be in the worst mood possible after the 45-3 embarrasment they were dished out courtesy of New England on Monday night. Unfortunately for Miami, all of the frustration of that loss will be taken out on them and the Jets will rebound soundly.

Miami 13

NY Jets 27

Denver @ Arizona

With Josh McDaniels gone, I see Denver playing a bit more loose, much like other teams who have fired their coach in previous weeks. It couldn’t hurt that they face the Cardinals, a team that couldn’t play their way out of a wet paper bag at the moment.

Denver 16

Arizona 9

New England @ Chicago

The Windy City weather might play a factor at first, but Tom Brady will find a way to adjust and pick apart the Bears’ secondary. Some see this as a possible Super Bowl preview. I would disagree, but we’ll see. Patriots win convincingly again.

New England 24

Chicago 14

Kansas City @ San Diego

Matt Cassel is looking very doubtful after having an emergency appendectomy on Wednesday, so Brodie Croyle will likely get the start for the Chiefs. I still have this as easily the highest-scoring game in Week 14, with the Chargers rebounding after the awful loss to Oakland to make things in the AFC West even more interesting. 

Kansas City 28

San Diego 38

8:20

Philadelphia @ Dallas

The Cowboys might be playing much better football under Jason Garrett, but they’re still no match for the Eagles in my opinion. They’ll give them a run for their money, but fall short to Mike Vick, who holds the Comeback Player Award in the palm of his hand. 

Philadelphia 26

Dallas 21

Monday, December 13th

8:30

Baltimore @ Houston

For those wondering, “Where’s the upset picks?” Here’s one for you. I think the stellar ground assault of Arian Foster combined with the always dangerous Houston game will give them the edge over Houston. Their weak secondary will give up some big plays to Anquan Boldin and Derrick Mason, but in the end, they hold off the Ravens. We might even be talking overtime here. 

Baltimore 17

Houston 23

And those are your Week 14 picks. Enjoy the games, TSJ!