The more things change, the more they stay the same in the NFL. Just ask the Pittsburgh Steelers who seem like they are in the AFC Championship game EVERY year. As much as that pains me to say, the numbers don’t lie as they have HOSTED half of the AFC Championship games since 2001 (2001, 2004, 2005, 2008, 2010). Say what you want about Pittsburgh, but they know how to build winning football teams. Without further ado, the four remaining playoff teams ranked from worst to best and who will play on Super Sunday in 16 days.

4. CHICAGO BEARS

**SEASON OF BREAKS: Da **Bears have experienced a run of excellent luck this season and it began right off the bat for them. In Week 1, Calvin Johnson’s winning touchdown pass was called incomplete (correctly I might add) after he caught the ball, fell to the ground and failed to maintain control. Bears win 19-14 against a Lions team that had lost TWENTY straight road games. In Week 4 they beat a 2-14 Panther team playing with their second string quarterback and in Week 6 they beat 5-11 Buffalo by a field goal. Two weeks later they shut out an 8-8 Miami team playing with its third string quarterback and beginning an odd trend. Two weeks after the Miami win, Chicago won at 6-10 Detroit who was starting THEIR third string quarterback. See the trend here? Finally, two weeks later they outlasted a defeated 6-10 Minnesota team that was down to, you guessed it, their third string quarterback.

WINNING FORMULA: Defense and Special Teams. If the Bears are to defy the odds this weekend, Devin Hester has to play a huge part of an upset as he did in the Bears 20-17 Week 3 win against Green Bay when he had a kick return for a touchdown. If not, it is essential that they win the turnover battle. If Cutler has to throw more than 35 times like he did in the season finale, that will be tough.

CROSS TO BARE?: I had to rub my eyes a few times upon seeing Vanderbilt’s 11-35 record during Jay Cutler’s four years there. Wait that can’t be…Yes, it is correct and, almost unfathomable. Cutler and the Bears offensive line (outside of anchor Olin Kruetz) are a scary combination…….for Bears fans. Going against a defense as talented as Green Bay’s, Cutler’s penchant for turning the ball over (42 INTs and 13 fumbles in the past TWO seasons) and getting sacked should worry Bear fans.

**3. NEW YORK JETS: **

**OK. NOW WHAT?: **Gang Green came out and stole the Patriots’ will last weekend but the question for them now, and to a lesser extent Pittsburgh, is do they have enough left after such an emotional win? Yes, the Jets won a game they HAD to have in Pittsburgh in Week 15 but the Steelers were without, in my humble opinion, the best and most complete defensive player in the NFL, Troy Polamalu. The Jets are the only team left that has played all three other remaining teams and they went 1-2 in those contests, only winning in Pittsburg. Regardless, they are battle tested having played New England twice, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, Baltimore, Green Bay and Chicago this season.

***WINNING FORMULA: ***The Jets were able to run on Pittsburgh in the first meeting and will have to do so again. That means they can’t fall behind and become one dimensional against Pittsburgh’s defense. Once again, though, this game will be about the Jets stopping the Steelers offense. Revis Island should be fun this weekend as he could be covering one of the fastest receivers in recent memory in Mike Wallace. Unlike most quarterbacks where pressure alone is usually enough, the Jets need to get Ben Roethlisberger TO THE GROUND. If not, they won’t be going to Dallas.

***X-FACTOR: Kick returner ***Brad Smith is going to play and that is a big boost to New York as he returned a touchdown on the opening kick of the first meeting. * *

2. PITTSBURGH:

***CAN’T DO IT TWICE: ***In the second game against teams they had already faced this year, Pittsburgh won all 3 games by a combined score of 87-26, not allowing more than 10 points in any of those contests. A huge reason for that is veteran defensive coordinator Dick Lebeau who, along with Bill Belichick, is probably the best defensive mind in the NFL. Either way, the big difference between the Steelers and Jets is Ben Roethlisberger. If Pittsburgh can protect him enough to make his usual plays downfield, Pittsburgh should win. The Steelers displayed the important quality of being able to come back from a double digit second half deficit last week against Baltimore.

***WINNING FORMULA: ***Basically, it’s let Roethlisberger make plays and stop the other team from running the football. Once teams abandon the run, the Steelers begin their parade of blitzes. They should do better against the run with Polamalu back in the lineup this time around.

***VERDICT: ***For me, Pittsburgh is the second favorite for the Super Bowl for one reason: They have a more formidable opponent than the Packers in their conference championship game. If they should win, as I expect, they would maul the Bears and lose to Green Bay in my opinion, although that is certainly debatable.

27-20 PITTSBURGH

** **

1. GREEN BAY:

**RODGERS IS OFFICIALLY IN THE “WHO’S THE BEST QB” DISCUSSION: **Did you see what he did to Atlanta? Granted, it’s not Chicago’s defense but still. When Troy Aikman said during the game that he would take Aaron Rodgers over any quarterback in the NFL, my two friends panned him but I kind of agreed with him as much as it pained me to pick him over Brady. Still, the reason the Packers are where they are right now is the defense which has held the Giants, Bears, Eagles and Falcons to an average of 14 points a game in the past four with only Atlanta reaching 21 in last week’s blowout. Like Pittsburgh, Green Bay’s weakness may be special teams where they were burned in Chicago and again last week. Regardless, this is the best team left.

***WINNING FORMULA: ***Green Bay sacked Cutler six times in the season finale and look for them to be all over him again on Sunday. Cornerbacks Woodson and Williams have to be eagerly anticipating a third crack at Jay Cutler and Green Bay has James Starks to add a power running game Chicago has not seen against Green Bay this season. Like the Steelers, the Packers need to protect Rodgers. If they can consistently do that and limit big plays from Hester, Green Bay wins.

***VERDICT: ***Thank God for the Pack or my picks would have looked even worse last week, if that’s possible. The first two meetings between these teams were both close but I don’t expect this one to be. Look for Green Bay to win by double digits and win a tight, Super Bowl classic against the Steelers. Of course, that could be the kiss of death coming from me. Just ask the Pats.

27-13 GREEN BAY