Here we are, the final week of the regular season is upon us and plenty of things have yet to be decided. Just what will the first games of 2011 bring? Will the NFC’s road to the Super Bowl go through Atlanta or New Orleans? Will the final playoff spot go to the Packers, Giants, or Bucs? The AFC North is coming down to a photo finish between Pittsburgh and Baltimore, while the same goes for the NFC West between St. Louis and Seattle. The odds of winning the AFC South have tilted much in the favor of the Indianapolis Colts, but it still takes a win over the Titans for them to clinch. Meanwhile, a loss and Jacksonville win over Houston would crown the Jags as division champs. The beautiful thing about all of this is that all of these games will be going on simultaneously, so nobody will have any idea whether they’re in or not until the final whistle is blown.
Then there’s the age-old question for the teams who have secured their spot in the postseason: to play the starters or to rest them? Each decision has its pros and cons of course. If you play your starters, they stay sharp and in rhythm, but there’s always the risk of injury when you can least afford it. We’re all looking forward to how it all plays out. Here’s my Week 17 picks.
Last Week: 8-8 .500
**Season: **138-102 .575
MNF: 11-7 .611
No-Brainers: 8-8 (Thats’s 4 straight now that have gone horribly wrong SMH)
Teams Used: Dolphins, Packers, Patriots, Colts, Saints, Steelers, Ravens, Titans, Giants, Chiefs, Falcons, Jets, Chargers, Browns, Buccaneers, Eagles
Sunday, January 2nd
1:00
Carolina @ Atlanta
The Falcons will be looking to hang onto their #1 playoff seed as they take on the Panthers who hold the #1 draft pick. Atlanta showed last week that they’re not unbeatable at home, but that was the Saints that found a way to win at the Georgia Dome. Carolina won’t be able to do the same. Falcons win in a blow out and hang onto home field advantage.
Carolina 13
Atlanta 35
Pittsburgh @ Cleveland
Last year, these teams met in the last game of the regular season and the Browns pulled the upset. Can they do the same again and dash the Steelers’ plans of celebrating an AFC North Division Championship and #2 seed? I find it hard to believe that history repeats itself in this situation with the way Cleveland has played as of late. There’s also the possibility of Troy Polamalu playing, who adds that much more to an already imposing defense. Also, look for Cleveland to not waste much time in firing Eric Mangini and bringing in either John Fox or Jon Gruden as his replacement.
Pittsburgh 29
Cleveland 16
Minnesota @ Detroit
The Vikings come off a huge upset over Philadelphia last week with rookie Joe Webb at quartberback. It looks like rookie Joe Webb will be the starter again which will officially shut the books on the historic career of Brett Favre. The Lions are looking for their first 4-game win streak in over a decade. With their own rookie phenom Ndamukong Suh, I think they get it accomplished in a tight game.
Minnesota 17
Detroit 21
** **
Chicago @ Green Bay
With the NFC North and the #2 seed already wrapped up, the Bears will surely go to their backups. It’s just a question of how soon. Even if they weren’t though, I believe I’d pick the Packers after getting a healthy Aaron Rodgers back. He proved last week that he makes all the difference on that team. Green Bay gets their 10th win and the Wild Card that comes along with it.
Chicago 20
Green Bay 23
Tennessee @ Indianapolis
The formula is very simple for the Colts. Win and the AFC South belongs to them yet again. A loss will leave the door open for Jacksonville to pull another hail mary. I think the Colts come out firing against a Titans team that seems to have given up, but Peyton Manning always has the capability of throwing a couple to the wrong team. Their run defense has been great lately however, and that’s why they’re my pick.
Tennessee 14
Indianapolis 27
Oakland @ Kansas City
The Raiders have a chance to go 6-0 in the division this year, yet have no shot at the playoffs. The Chiefs have the AFC West wrapped up, so they’re another team that may choose to rest their starters for at least some if not most of the game. I think Oakland winds up 8-8 with the win here and they’ll have plenty to be optimistic about next season.
Oakland 19
Kansas City 10
Miami @ New England
Bill Belichick has nothing to gain by starting all the regular starters in this game, with home field secured. Tom Brady is also the runaway MVP. Also, remember last year when he needlessly lost Wes Welker to injury in the last regular season? I think the Patriots win no matter what Belichick decides, his team is that good, that prepared, and that much better than Miami.
Miami 13
New England 24
Tampa Bay @ Nawlins
Both teams have plenty to play for here. The Bucs can still get a Wild Card and the Saints can still steal home field away from the Falcons. Josh Freeman can put the exlcamation mark on a great season by stealing one in the Superdome, but the Saints are the better team and likely to get the win. Nothing to be ashamed of though, improving from 3 to 9 wins. If Atlanta wins the NFC South as I predicted, the Saints will get the #5 seed and be on their way to the winner of St.Louis/Seattle next week where they should hand them an early exit from the playoffs.
Tampa Bay 21
Nawlins 31
** **
Buffalo @ NY Jets
The Jets will use this game as a playoff warm-up as they have a lot of issues to fix with their play in the last quarter of the season. Buffalo should be just the opponent they need to give them a confidence boost heading into the Wild Card Round.
Buffalo 12
NY Jets 26
** **
Dallas @ Philadelphia
We’ll see Kevin Kolb back at quartberback after Mike Vick suffered a leg injury last week and can’t improve or worsen their #3 playoff seed. Dallas is coming off a disappointing loss to Arizona on Christmas Day, and this is Jason Garrett’s final chance to help Jerry Jones decide whether or not to keep him as head coach. I think even with Vick and various other starters out, they finish the regular season with a statement that they’ll be ready for whoever wins the 6th seed and pays them a visit next week.
Dallas 20
Philadelphia 34
** **
NY Giants @ Washington
The questions are looming about Tom Coughlin’s future with the Giants after their blowout loss to Green Bay last week and monumental collapse to Phily the week before. If they get in the playoffs and make a run, it would help silence those questions. However, I like Green Bay over Chicago, so I think Coughlin could very well be out of a job. Even if they do sneak into the playoffs, I don’t like them to make any kind of push. The wind has clearly been taken out of their sails. With that said, they should still be able to beat the Redskins.
NY Giants 17
Washington 13
Cincinnati @ Baltimore
This will put a cap on an incredibly disappointing season for last year’s AFC North Champion Bengals and likely bring an end to Marvin Lewis’ tenure in Cincinnati. The Ravens will be looking to dethrone the Bengals and be the ones to call themselves winners of the AFC North in 2010, and I look for them to show no mercy on the crippled Bengals.
Cincinnati 6
Baltimore 28
Jacksonville @ Houston
Both teams will be without their biggest offensive weapon. The Jags will have to try and win the AFC South without Maurice Jones-Drew for the 2nd straight game, while the Texans will take the field without Andre Johnson. I like a close game here, but the team with the most to play for will pull out the win.
Jacksonville 24
Houston 21
4:15
Arizona @ San Francisco
The Niners will finish a very disappointing season in which most picked them to win the NFC West. This will be their first game without Mike Singletary, who was fired late last Sunday night. Jim Harbaugh is a possible replacement there, but that will all work itself out in the offseason. Both teams are downright terrible, so the home team gets my pick.
Arizona 19
San Francisco 20
** **
St. Louis @ Seattle
While the NFC West has been the worst division in recent memory, somebody still has to win it. This game will decide it all, and the winner gets the #4 seed and hosts a Wild Card Playoff game next week against either New Orleans or Atlanta. Obviously their odds aren’t good in that one, but there’s always a shot. I think the Rams are by far the better team here and get in with an 8-8 record as opposed to Seattle winning the division with a record of 7-9. Despite how disappointing the division is, there’s still something to be said for St. Louis to even be in contention with a rookie quarterback. Sam Bradford should have no problem running away with Offensive Rookie of the Year.
St. Louis 31 NO-BRAINER
Seattle 17
San Diego @ Denver
Norv Turner’s future has been declared safe by San Diego ownership, which I have to strongly question. Marty Schottenheimer gets fired after a 14-2 season, but Turner has stuck around this long after delivering a long line of letdowns? Lots of good available coaches should be available in the offseason too, so it’s not as if their hands are tied. Regardless, I think the good play of Tim Tebow helps the Broncos stay in the game, but the Chargers prove to be too much in the end here.
San Diego 27
Denver 23
Enjoy the games and Happy New Year, TSJ.