The New England Patriots (4-1) travel across the country to San Diego to face the Chargers (2-4) for what looks to be a great match-up. The Patriots are 1-1 on the road, while the Chargers are 2-0 at home and appear to be much more comfortable playing there, outscoring their opponents 79-23. However, the Patriots couldn’t catch the Chargers at a better time. Although Philip Rivers has thrown for over 2,000 yards, Antonio Gates is hurt, and wideouts Malcom Floyd and Legedu Naanee are unlikely to play. This game will likely come down to which quarterback makes the fewest mistakes, as they’re both enjoying very good seasons.
When the Chargers Run: Push
The Chargers are good at running the football, but the Patriots have been getting better at stopping it. Chargers rookie running back Ryan Matthews is healthy and figures to start. With Gates being hurt and their two top wideouts unlikely to play, the Chargers could attempt to run the football more often.
When the Chargers Pass: Advantage Chargers
There aren’t many defenses that can stop Philip Rivers, and the Patriots’ pass defense is currently one of the worst in the NFL. Even without Floyd and Naanee, Rivers will be accurate enough to hit Patrick Crayton and Antonio Gates (if he plays) all day long.
When the Patriots Run: Push
The Patriots’ running attack is getting better, but they’re going up against the 6th-ranked run defense in the NFL. Running back Danny Woodhead has been a superb all-around back, and he’ll see a lot of action this weekend.
When the Patriots Pass: Advantage Patriots
I am aware the Chargers are #1 in the NFL in terms of passing yards allowed, but the Patriots will move the football through the air. Deion Branch looked great in his first game back and should have some success this week. Wes Welker will get his 6-8 catches, and Aaron Hernandez will shake off the drops from overtime and show us he’s mentally ready to move forward. While the Patriots’ passing attack isn’t getting 300 yards per week, Tom Brady is doing what he wants, as he’s completing 67% of his passes.
Special Teams: Advantage Patriots
The Patriots have the 2nd-best kick returner in the game in Brandon Tate, averaging 32 yards per kick return. He has the ability to return them for touchdowns, as he has two already this year. Meanwhile, the Chargers are very mediocre at returning kicks, averaging 22.8 yards per return. Neither team is amazing at punt returns, as the Patriots are ranked 18th and the Chargers 23rd. The Patriots are 20th in kickoff return yards allowed and the Chargers are 21st. When it comes to punt return yards allowed, the Patriots rank 6th and the Chargers are last. Patriots kicker Stephen Gostkowski is one of the better kickers in the game, and the Chargers’ kicker Nate Kaeding will be out for this contest with a groin injury.
Prediction
New England Patriots 27, San Diego Chargers 20
