We are in Week 7 of the NFL and there are a lot of tight races. No team in the NFL is chasing a 16-0 record, and there are several teams underachieving and overachieving. To this point in the season, the Dallas Cowboys, Minnesota Vikings, Green Bay Packers, Cincinnati Bengals, and San Diego Chargers are playing worse than expected. They all have the ability to turn their seasons around since the division races are so tight. On the flip side, the Chicago Bears, St Louis Rams, Seattle Seahawks, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Kansas City Chiefs have exceeded my expectations going into this weekend.

Michael Vick leads the NFL in passer rating with 108.8, Arian Foster leads the NFL in rushing with 635 yards, Brandon Lloyd leads the NFL in receiving yards with 663, and Laron Landry leads the NFL in tackles with 63, which is interesting since he’s a safety. Clay Matthews has 8.5 sacks to lead the NFL, and Charles Godfrey has the most interceptions with 4. The matchup of the week isn’t between two teams, but two prolific passers: Tom Brady and Philip Rivers.

Sunday, October 24th

Cincinnati (2-3) @ Atlanta (4-2)

The Bengals are having a tough time winning games against mediocre teams. The Falcons are coming off a poor performance on the road in Philadelphia. Both of these teams are in the top 11 in terms of offensive yardage. However, Cincinnati has a tough time running the football and Atlanta does it well. Defensively, the Falcons give up more yards, but allow fewer points. I’ll go with the home team in this one.

Prediction: Atlanta 23, Cincinnati 17

Washington (3-3) @ Chicago (4-2)

Both of these teams struggle to put points on the board, but Chicago doesn’t allow many and Washington has the worst defense in the NFL in terms of total yards allowed per game. Given these numbers, it’s hard for me to pick Washington, especially on the road.

Prediction: Chicago 23, Washington 17

St Louis (3-3) @ Tampa Bay (3-2)

Don’t let these records fool you; they’re both mediocre. Both of these teams have a tough time scoring points, but St Louis is better at stopping teams from scoring. Sam Bradford is better than Josh Freeman, and that’s what it comes down to for me, so the Rams should get their first road win of the season. It also doesn’t hurt that Steven Jackson is going up against the 31st-ranked run defense.

Prediction: St Louis 24, Tampa Bay 16

San Francisco (1-5) @ Carolina (0-5)

Both of these teams are awful. They both have a tough time scoring points and neither defense is amazing. However, I feel the 49ers have some confidence after winning their first game last week and should win again.

Prediction: San Francisco 20, Carolina 13

Buffalo (0-5) @ Baltimore (4-2)

Buffalo is clearly the worst team in the NFL, and the Ravens are one of the best and hungry after a tough overtime loss to New England last week. This game should be over by the half as the Ravens’ offense should shred the Bills’ defense.

Prediction: Baltimore 31, Buffalo 3

Philadelphia (4-2) @ Tennessee (4-2)

The Eagles are undefeated on the road and the Titans have a tough time winning at home. Both of these teams can run the football, but Tennessee is far better at stopping it. However, the Eagles can move the ball through the air effectively and the Titans will have problems stopping that. I am going with an upset pick here.

Prediction: Philadelphia 27, Tennessee 20

Jacksonville (3-3) @ Kansas City (3-2)

Both of these teams have done better than I expected. The Chiefs are playing some good football, especially on the ground where they’re #1 in the NFL. The Jaguars allow almost 28 points per game and the Chiefs allow 18. David Garrard is likely to miss this game.

Prediction: Kansas City 24, Jacksonville 13

Pittsburgh (4-1) @ Miami (3-2)

Miami hasn’t won a home game yet, and that’s not going to change this week. The Dolphins’ offense won’t move the ball very well in this matchup, and the Steelers should win rather easily as Ben Roethlisberger is up to speed.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 24, Miami 10

Cleveland (1-5) @ New Orleans (4-2)

This will be the Saints’ first opponent outside of the conference, and it should be an easy contest at home. The Browns don’t do anything particularly well, so it’s hard to give them any kind of advantage in this matchup. Drew Brees will likely have an outstanding day at the office.

Prediction: New Orleans 30, Cleveland 13

Arizona (3-2) @ Seattle (3-2)

They both do well at home and are mediocre on the road. Both teams have trouble scoring points. Seattle is better at point prevention, though. It’s weird seeing Arizona 30th in the NFL in terms of passing yards per game. Seattle is #2 in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game. This is bad news for Arizona.

Prediction: Seattle 24, Arizona 13

New England (4-1) @ San Diego (2-4)

The Patriots are #1 in points per game and the Chargers are 5th. The Chargers are 19th in points allowed and the Patriots are 25th. It sounds like there will be a lot of points scored in this contest. The major difference in this matchup, though, is the special teams. The Patriots are much better in that department.

Prediction: New England 30, San Diego 23

Oakland (2-4) @ Denver (2-4)

This is an interesting matchup. Denver has a great passing attack, but Oakland can limit it. Denver can’t run the ball, but Oakland can’t stop it. The Raiders can’t move the ball well through the air, but Denver is mediocre at stopping it. The Raiders can run the ball, and Denver is mediocre at stopping it. I’ll just pick the home team here.

Prediction: Denver 23, Oakland 20

Minnesota (2-3) @ Green Bay (3-3)

This is a huge game for both of these teams as they’re both underachieving to this point. The Packers simply have too many injuries to compete against quality teams. The Brett Favre/Randy Moss duo will have a fine game and Adrian Peterson should have a big day on the ground. Aaron Rodgers will have to enjoy one of the best performances of his career to win this game.

Prediction: Minnesota 27, Green Bay 20

Monday, October 25th

New York Giants (4-2) @ Dallas (1-4)

These teams are clearly going in different directions. The Giants have won three in a row and the Cowboys have lost two in a row and have yet to win at home this season. Dallas has a great passing attack, but the Giants are #2 in the NFL in passing yards allowed. The Cowboys are having problems running the football and the Giants are ranked 7th in the NFL in run defense. This is a must-win game for Dallas, and I just don’t think they have what it takes to beat the Giants right now given their offensive line problems.

Prediction: New York Giants 27, Dallas 23

Bye

Detroit, Indianapolis, New York Jets, Houston