Now, as we get deeper into March, the focus around the NFL is turning more so toward the upcoming draft in late April. Of course, just like at any other point in the year, the most scrutinized position group is the quarterbacks. Experts and observers everywhere are pondering where Auburn’s Cam Newton, Missouri’s Blaine Gabbert, Washington’s Jake Locker, and Arkansas’s Ryan Mallett, among others, will be playing in 2011 and beyond. Scouts, coaches, executives, and pundits tirelessly analyze the mechanics, demeanor, and character of these young signal-callers in hopes of landing the next Aaron Rodgers. What may be overlooked is that what these players have to offer their respective organizations is of no greater importance than what the organization has to offer these players.

Just as the ultimate dream of the personnel gurus leading the draft rooms of different teams around the league is to hit the jackpot with a perennial Pro Bowler capable of leading his team to multiple championships, these same officials live in fear of finding themselves the next Ryan Leaf or JaMarcus Russell instead. But more than just keeping their fingers crossed, it is imperative to analyze the flops of the teams that came before you and what led to such epic failures and copious wastes of payroll. Going into the 1998 draft, the two top quarterback prospects were Leaf and Peyton Manning. Then-Chargers general manager Bobby Beathard admitted years later that he, having had the second pick in the draft while the Colts held the first, attempted to work out a trade that would put San Diego atop the draft and in a position to select Manning, whom Beathard admitted was the player he truly wanted to select. We now know that Colts president Bill Polian refused the offer and selected Manning first overall, while San Diego, still wanting to take a quarterback, found themselves in a position they knew right away that they didn’t want to be in by taking Leaf. The Chargers won the first two games of Leaf’s career, but when Leaf had a dismal Week 3 of his rookie season, Beathard encouraged Leaf to apologize to his teammates for costing them the game. In addition to maturity and character issues, this episode certainly contributed to Leaf being overly defensive and having shaky confidence as well as an inability to establish a rapport between him and the organization throughout the rest of his tenure in San Diego.

The Oakland Raiders, in 2007, were coming off a fourth straight season with at least eleven losses, which was most recently a 2-14 mark in which they fielded an offense that was, by a considerable margin, the worst in the league. The best solution to this, in the eyes of owner/general manager Al Davis was to use the first overall pick to take a franchise quarterback who was going to lift the organization from the doldrums to perennial contention. The problem with this was that no such player existed. The best signal-callers available in April 2007 were Brady Quinn, Trent Edwards, and JaMarcus Russell. Due to a proven ability to perform against the elite competition of the Southeastern Conference (SEC), coupled with ideal size, athleticism, and arm strength, and following a sparkling outing in the Sugar Bowl against Notre Dame the previous January, with perhaps the most impressive piece of tape on him being clips in which he kneeled on the 50-yard line and threw a ball through the uprights, Davis chose to forego a safer pick like Georgia Tech wide receiver Calvin Johnson or Oklahoma running back Adrian Peterson, or to find a trade partner to move back in the draft and amass additional picks, and selected Russell. It later became clear that then-head coach Lane Kiffin, an offensive-minded coach in his first year in Oakland, had his tenure with the Silver and Black doomed almost from the start as he wanted no part of having Russell be the first draft pick of his regime. Kiffin’s conviction was proven correct, as Russell’s selection was followed by a lengthy contract holdout that lasted into the regular season of his rookie year. Four weeks into year 2 of the Russell era, Kiffin was fired, and replaced by a coach who had even less willingness to work with Russell, in Tom Cable. Three years after the 2007 draft, Russell was no longer a Raider and has since been out of the league.

Just as the failures of Leaf and Russell can be attributed, in part, to a lack of faith on the part of the organizations they played for, there are other teams that have fallen victim to the trap of having expectations that are too high for their young passer. Tim Couch came out of a spread offense at the University of Kentucky and was drafted by the expansion Browns in 1999, having to learn a much more detailed playbook with a lesser supporting cast than he had in college. Not surprisingly, Couch only lasted five years in Cleveland. David Carr had an impressive career at Fresno State, in the unheralded Western Athletic Conference, with good surrounding talent and coaching. Unfortunately, he, like Couch, was drafted by an expansion team in the Texans with talent that was, for the most part, nonexistent or past its prime. A shaky offensive line led to numerous injuries for Carr as he never developed the confidence, patience, and discipline in the pocket that a top-tier quarterback needs in the NFL.

Pay close attention to what is said and done at the draft and after it ends. Will coaches and general managers go out of their way to defend their pick and/or glowingly endorse it? How strong is the team’s veteran corps? Will he go to a team with a stout defense where he won’t be counted on to lead a bunch of scoring drives? Will he go to a team with a strong offensive line that can keep him clean and help build his patience, trust, and confidence? Will he join forces with a coach or coordinator with an impressive resume of grooming young quarterbacks, such as Buffalo’s Chan Gailey? Is there a savvy veteran quarterback on the roster to show the kid the ropes and teach him about leading, preparing, and most importantly, performing at this level? This will determine the success of the 2010 NFL quarterback draft class.