Now that the NFL combine is over and done, mock drafts are really starting to take shape and have some credence. Drafting ideologies start to leak from each team, and the NFL draft picture starts to come into focus.
There is a little more intrigue this year, however. The lack of a new CBA is preventing trades from taking place, and with so many teams with needs in key positions such as quarterback, there will be a premium on some prospects because of the position they play.
Again, let’s hope Carolina keeps their pick under lock and key until draft day. Few things are more fun than watching a bunch of young men sitting on pins and needles wondering if they will get their name called first.
1. Carolina Panthers: Marcell Dareus – DT Alabama
Previously: A.J. Green
While Carolina may be flirting with the quarterback position (Cam Newton in particular) and new coaches often mean new quarterbacks, they still have an investment in Jimmy Clausen. I would argue the biggest need for the Panthers actually is defensive tackle and Marcel Dareus is the best defensive tackle in the draft without red flags. Personally, I think they should draft A.J. Green to give Clausen a fighting chance, but he doesn’t seem to be on Carolina’s radar. Drafting Cam Newton number one overall could set the Panthers back another five years if he doesn’t pan out- a likelihood if I was betting.
2. Denver Broncos: Nick Fairley – DT Auburn
Previously: Patrick Peterson
I have Fairley at this spot for now. I think the Broncos would prefer a guy like Da’Quan Bowers to help boost their pass rush, but that knee is starting to become a worry for teams across the league. Fairley, more than any other defensive tackle in the draft, can tally up some sacks from the inside. When the Broncos signed veteran cornerback Champ Bailey to a four year extension, the odds of drafting Patrick Peterson went way down. He’s still a possibility if he’s the top player on the Bronco draft board, but Fairley addresses a serious need.
3. Buffalo Bills: Von Miller – OLB/DE Texas A&M
Previously: Nick Fairley
Buffalo is probably hoping that either Dareus or Fairley get to pick three because both could be used in the 3-4 scheme that Buffalo is going to employ for most of the year. But if both are off the board, then Von Miller becomes a very attractive target. There may not be an outside linebacker in the draft that better projects in the 3-4 scheme than Von Miller. He’s a fantastic athlete that can provide tremendous rush off the edge or play in coverage.
4. Cincinnati Bengals: A.J. Green – WR Georgia
Previously: Da’Quan Bowers
A.J. Green will be the top offensive player on a lot of teams’ draft boards. Cincinnati might have an entirely new look on offense with lots of old stars playing in different cities. The Bengals will be intrigued with all the quarterbacks still on the board, but that only makes it more likely that one of the big four will slip to the second round. Instead of throwing them to the wolves with little offensive help, drafting the best wide receiver prospect since Charles Johnson makes a lot of sense- especially if the Bengals are without both Ochocinco and Owens.
5. Arizona Cardinals: Robert Quinn – OLB/DE North Carolina
Previously: Ryan Mallett
The word out of Arizona is that they are going to roll the dice with free agency or the trade route when it comes to acquiring a quarterback. If that’s the case, they won’t be drafting one with their first round pick. They desperately need some rush linebackers and Robert Quinn fits that role perfectly. It’s entirely possible they draft Patrick Peterson. He would definitely be the best player available if someone hasn’t pulled the trigger already.
6. Cleveland Browns: Julio Jones – WR Alabama
Previously: Robert Quinn
Few players helped themselves at the NFL combine like Julio Jones. In truth, he out-performed A.J. Green. Some leaks have come out that say Jones has moved ahead of Green on a few teams’ draft boards. Either way, it is very, very close between Green and Jones. One has to believe that if A.J. Green slipped to this pick, the Browns would draft him to give McCoy an elite target to throw to. And if Jones made the race for best wide receiver in the draft a dead heat at the combine, it stands to reason that the Browns would be thrilled to draft him as well.
7. San Francisco 49ers: Blaine Gabbert – QB Missouri
Previously: Marcell Dareus
Jim Harbaugh doesn’t strike me as a man of great patience, and with the CBA agreement holdup, I have a feeling he is going to address the quarterback situation in the first round. Blaine Gabbert is the most Andrew Luck-like quarterback in the draft. He is a more polished passer than Cam Newton. Luck was a good athlete, something that Mallett is not. Luck was accurate, something Locker is not. If Gabbert is off the board, I wouldn’t be surprised if a guy like Harbaugh selects Mallett over Newton as well. I just don’t see Newton ending up being a 49er. Harbaugh did not even offer a tender to Troy Smith, the resident athletic Heisman quarterback in San Francisco. It’s hard to believe that he would frown at keeping Smith as a backup to draft Cam Newton as a potential starter.
8. Tennessee Titans: Cam Newton – QB Auburn
Previously: Cam Newton
While I think it is a mistake, I think Newton is the pick for Tennessee if he’s still on the board. The reports from NFL camps are that Newton’s stock has been dropping continuously since the combine, but he is exactly the type of quarterback that owner Bud Adams adores. Steve McNair had a big arm and amazing athleticism. Vince Young was much the same. If Cam Newton is still available, it will be like things never changed.
9. Dallas Cowboys: Patrick Peterson – CB LSU
Previously: Prince Amukamara
It’s hard to believe that Patrick Peterson, who most see as the best overall prospect on the draft board, could slip all the way to the ninth pick. The ugly truth is that corners rarely get drafted in the top five and the teams ahead of the Cowboys are all loaded with needs that aren’t secondary. The best part for the Cowboys is that cornerback might be the biggest area of concern as they move into the next season.
10. Washington Redskins: Ryan Mallett – QB Arkansas
Previously: Julio Jones
Mike Shanahan’s greatest success as a coach came with a strong-armed quarterback with a gunslinger reputation. Now, I’m not comparing Ryan Mallett to John Elway, but Shanahan does have a history of taming the beast. Gabbert might grade out higher on their board, but I figure he’ll be gone before the Redskins get a shot at drafting him. Even still, knowing what Shanahan values in a quarterback, it isn’t a stretch to believe that Mallett would be the number two quarterback on their draft board.
11. Houston Texans: Da’Quan Bowers – OLB/DE
Previously: Akeem Ayers
The Texans will have an interesting decision to make if this scenario plays out. Bowers would certainly be the best player on the board, but he isn’t a sure bet to fit their new 3-4 scheme. Still, the thought is that Bowers is such an athletic phenom that he could play the rush linebacker position. The Texans were dead last against the pass, partly because their play in the secondary and partly because they couldn’t generate a pass rush. If he pans out, Bowers could certainly help with the latter.
12. Minnesota Vikings: Jake Locker – QB Washington
Previously: Blaine Gabbert
The reports coming out of Minnesota are that they were really impressed with Jake Locker at the combine. He’s an athletic quarterback with pretty good mechanics. He simply has never produced results on the field. Minnesota is thinking, and rightly so, that he’s never been surrounded by talent like Adrian Peterson, Sidney Rice, and Percy Harvin. If Locker’s issues have simply been a lack of supporting cast, then maybe he will thrive in Minnesota. I don’t think that’s the case, but he certainly has potential. With Tarvaris Jackson and Brett Favre both out of Minnesota, the Vikings are going to have to make a move in the draft in regards to quarterback.
13. Detroit Lions: Prince Amukamara – CB Nebraska
Previously: Von Miller
The Lions have a long history of taking the best available player and Amukamara might be it. In addition, it hits a need for the Lions. Amukamara doesn’t address their pass rush needs, but if Chris Houston isn’t re-signed, Detroit will be looking for two starting corners. The Lions would be thrilled if Amukamara slips to pick 13.
14. St. Louis Rams: Corey Liuget – DT Illinois
Previously: Stephen Paea
Liuget is one of the players that flew up the draft boards just before, during, and after the combine. He has been extremely impressive and this fills an area of massive need for the Rams. As much as the Rams would like to add an elite receiving target for Sam Bradford, Green and Jones are both gone. Liuget would be an immediate upgrade for the Rams in the middle of that defensive front.
15. Miami Dolphins: Mark Ingram – RB Alabama
Previously: Mark Ingram
Few people just make as much sense in a certain draft position as Mark Ingram. With Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown getting long in the tooth and being free agents, Ingram being the pick just feels right. He has great tread, great balance, good power, and is a high-character prospect. If a quarterback that Miami really likes slips to Miami here, I wouldn’t be surprised if they draft him. Florida is a great place to retire I hear, so maybe they can squeeze a year or two out of a veteran free agent like Donovan McNabb.
16. Jacksonville Jaguars: J.J. Watt – DE Wisconsin
Previously: Adrian Clayborn
I’m not as high on Watt as most, but he makes a lot of sense for Jacksonville. They need to solidify their defensive front and J.J. Watt does a little bit of everything. He’s not an elite pass rusher, but he has a fantastic motor and will get his share of sacks. He also plays well at the point of attack and sheds blocks well against the run. The Jags really need to upgrade their defensive end position and the draft is loaded with players that can do exactly that. It’s just a matter of who grades out higher on their draft board.
