As the 2011 NFL Draft starts creeping ever closer to commencing, speculation will naturally continue to appear, grow, and evolve as to what players will be selected, at which position, and by whom.  Analysts will begin casually tossing around completely new, unfamiliar names left and right as if they belong to already established superstars, hyperbole will surround these players in ways difficult for most fans to fathom, and for every prospect anointed to the top of this year’s class, two more will have their dreams shattered by those obsessed with trying to predict how good they *think *a player might one day be, and all before ever suiting up for even a single meaningful game.  It’s a lot to take in, that much is certain, and unless you’re prepared for it, it might even catch you off guard.

Accordingly, it’s probably time we start theorizing as to just how these “mock” drafts might change as we continue advancing toward that monumental first pick, even if only from a purely conceptual perspective, so we can at least try and limit the surprises that are surely in store for all of us in the dramatic weeks ahead.

Keep in mind, however, that all this information is entirely subject to change, of course. And probably will.  At least seven times.

Picks 1-5

Welcome to the most secure place on the entire theoretical draft board, the Top Five.  Once you get in, you usually stay put, up until about a week before the big day, of course, when just about every analyst covering the spectacle will usually make one major adjustment in this region, just to cause a stir.  The top three picks specifically all have bright futures ahead of them and would be solid additions to any team lucky enough to have them.  Their fundamentals are sound, their records are proven, are, much more important than any other quality, they all have that special little thing called “intangibles.”  You know, the stuff you can’t measure in any way, shape, or form that you have just because someone else says you have it and that also somehow implies you must be really, really good.  Could any human being who ever lived be said to have “intangibles?” Of course they could!  But these aren’t just any old humans beings we’re talking about here, are they?  No sir.  These are the best of the best, the absolute top* *available college football players according to one specific spectator who has a hunch they’ll all be really good NFL players one day, he thinks.  According to him.  A little respect, please.

Picks 6-12

Next are the stable studs, a core group of incredibly talented youngsters who may shift a spot or two in either direction but still don’t have much overall fluidity.  These gridiron behemoths have excelled at every level they’ve competed in thus far and have given no reason to expect their performance on the world’s biggest stage would be anything less than stellar.  Conveniently enough, they all also happen to address pressing needs for the specific teams that happen to own their corresponding selection slots, and, coincidentally, for one reason or another, you could just see each of their respective suitors taking a chance on them.  These are your “safe picks,” players who usually have the potential to reach “franchise” status, and, in many cases, are ready to start “on day one,” and no mock draft would be complete without them occupying these slots, whoever those players happen to actually be.

Picks 13-18

Here we find the swingin’ six, or maybe it’s the schizophrenic six, your call.  Whatever you decide to refer to them as, however, the point is this:  don’t get too comfortable with any of these six slots because the names change more often than Apple’s product line.  Here you’ll find quality role players that are for the most part interchangeable, just one big potpourri of all shapes, sizes, and positions, and I don’t know about you, but personally I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to find that one of these guys turns out to be the “next big thing,” especially if it happens to include a quarterback who “can make all the throws” or a running back with a “high football IQ.”  Those are just the kind of elite players you want to anchor down this part of your mock draft, everybody knows that, and as long as you don’t mind them leisurely popping in and out over time as consensus opinion of them changes, feel free to pencil them in with confidence.

Picks 19-25

At this point in a mock draft the focus really starts to shift towards weighing the risks and potential rewards of all remaining players and, as a result, the names can change in a moment’s notice.  This is also where you can really make a splash by choosing some player nobody else seems to favor, for reasons you don’t even have to fully explain, so between now and April 30 you can definitely expect to find a laundry list of prospects who’ve  filled at least one of these slots at one point or another.  Off the field behavior and personal conduct issues are no longer make or break factors here, as teams in these slots have the luxury of being able to take a gamble without enraging their respective fan bases, and excellence in even a single aspect of the game can often be enough to warrant taking such a risk.  As a result, the players we see here today are likely not the same ones we’ll see here a month from now, and the most important attribute to look for here is “upside,” a great way to distinguish between otherwise equal players after you’ve already played the “intangibles” card.  Also a great place to find a “game-changer,” a “field general,” or a “factor back” too, by the way.

Picks 26-32

Finally we reach the end of the line, one big old free-for-all where previously heralded standouts go to fade into obscurity and former late-round long shots come to shine in newfound glory.  It’s amazing how placement among these late first round selections can have such a radically different effect on how we view the players involved, depending on where they were positioned before landing here, that is, but no matter the journey they took to reach this point, it’s probably a safe bet that it won’t end here.  The times, they are a changin’, and the names attached to these bottom slots, the worst of the best and the best of the rest, well, they are definitely changin’ too.  Just because the names change, however, doesn’t mean the descriptions of those names also have to, so count on finding in this general region plenty of “lateral quickness,” “backfield awareness,” and, if you’re really lucky, possibly even the “steal of the draft.”