The NFL draft is less than a week away, and the mock drafts that are all over the web are all over the map. Nobody seems to agree on much of anything. There is a huge debate about the best quarterback on the board. The choices don’t get much easier for a defensive line crop of draftees that is as strong as any in recent memory. Julio Jones made A.J. Green no sure thing to be the first wide receiver taken in the draft as well. Von Miller should be the first linebacker that falls off the draft board, and Patrick Peterson will almost assuredly be the first secondary player. Despite that, nobody has any real idea where they will go.
This mock draft will try to predict which player will go to each team, and in addition to that, say what each team should do. Every year, teams make draft decisions that leave everyone shaking their heads. It will happen this year, and I suspect the worst pick in the draft will be the first pick in the draft.
1. Carolina Panthers (2-14)
What they will do: Cam Newton – QB – Auburn
What they should do: A.J. Green – WR – Georgia
It seems almost inevitable that the Panthers are going to make this monumental mistake. More and more, information leaks out that the Panthers are leaning toward the Heisman trophy winner. Anyone who saw Cam Newton on Jon Gruden’s quarterback camp series on ESPN saw the immense trouble that Cam Newton will have in the NFL. When asked what an Auburn play sounds like, Cam Newton couldn’t give an example. He said they simply looked up on a board and saw the number 36. Good luck with this pick, Ron Rivera. This is JaMarcus Russell 2.0. The Panthers should pick A.J. Green. Jimmy Clausen deserves a real chance to succeed, and they’re going to have to pay him anyway. With A.J. Green in the fold, his excuses for failure are basically nil. And if Clausen goes 2-14 as a starter next year, they’ll get a shot at Andrew Luck. How ridiculous will it look if the Panthers draft Cam Newton this year only to get the first pick next year and have to pass on Luck?
2. Denver Broncos (4-12)
What they will do: Marcell Dareus – DL – Alabama
What they should do: Marcell Dareus – DL – Alabama
When the Broncos decided to keep Champ Bailey, it made the Patrick Peterson pick much less likely. The Broncos are in dire need of defensive tackles, and Dareus is the best of the bunch. He has no question marks and plays with a high motor every play. Nick Fairley probably has a higher ceiling, but Dareus is the safer pick. Dareus will make an immediate impact in a division that runs the football very well.
3. Buffalo Bills (4-12)
What they will do: Von Miller – LB – Texas A&M
What they should do: Von Miller – LB – Texas A&M
If Cam Newton is still on the board, I don’t know that Chan Gailey can pass him up. He loves athletic quarterbacks and prides himself on taking on projects. As stated earlier, however, I expect the Panthers to make that mistake before the Bills get a chance. Von Miller is a very versatile linebacker that can play outside linebacker in the 3-4 or the 4-3 scheme. Buffalo likes to use multiple set defenses, so Miller is a great addition to a team that desperately needs to add a pass rush. He’s just too good of a fit for the Bills to take a flier on Gabbert, though they will probably give it some thought.
4. Cincinnati Bengals (4-12)
What they will do: A.J. Green – WR – Georgia
What they should do: Patrick Peterson – CB – LSU
The Bengals have a ton of needs, and wide receiver is certainly one of them. A.J. Green certainly isn’t a bad pick by any means, but I think Peterson should be the way they go. Peterson could be the top overall player on at least half of the draft boards, and a player of that caliber slipping to pick four is a sign from the almighty. Peterson also fits an area of need- a desperate need if the Bungles don’t resign Johnathan Joseph. What the Bengals do not need to do is draft a quarterback. There could be virtually no help for a young quarterback as Owens is already gone and Ochocinco may be as well. And if Mike Brown wants any chance of having Carson Palmer on his squad next year, drafting a quarterback in the first round is not the way to go about mending those fences.
5. Arizona Cardinals (5-11)
What they will do: Patrick Peterson – CB – LSU
What they should do: Patrick Peterson- CB – LSU
A lot of mock drafts have Blaine Gabbert going to the Cardinals with the 5th overall pick. I think there are a lot of faults with that reasoning. First, Gabbert is not a top five type of talent. Second, Ken Whisenhunt wants to win immediately because his seat is starting to get a little warm already. With this in mind, he is much more inclined to go after a veteran quarterback once the free agency period begins. Third, Larry Fitzgerald has also been pretty clear that he wants the Cardinals to go after a veteran, and Fitzgerald is easily the most important facet of that entire organization. It’s imperative that the Cardinals keep him happy. And finally, Patrick Peterson fits an area of need for the Cardinals, and should provide instant dividends on both defense and in the return game.
6. Cleveland Browns (5-11)
What they will do: Julio Jones – WR – Alabama
What they should do: Robert Quinn – DE – North Carolina
I believe Julio Jones will have a monster career somewhere in the NFL, and I don’t think that it would be an inherently bad choice for the Browns. They need someone dynamic on the outside for Colt McCoy to throw to and keep extra men out of the box so that Peyton Hillis can do his versatile runner act. However, we have seen Julio Jones in a semi-conservative offense for three years in Tuscaloosa. He gets bored and loses his concentration easily. The Browns aren’t going to start slinging it all over the yard anytime soon, so expect Julio to take some mental breaks from time to time in this system. But with the transition to the 4-3 under Dick Jauron, the Browns must address the defensive end spot and add a pass rush. Quinn is arguably the best in the draft at doing just that.
7. San Francisco 49ers (6-10)
What they will do: Robert Quinn – DE – North Carolina
What they should do: Robert Quinn – DE – North Carolina
Many mocks are picking Blaine Gabbert here if they didn’t have Arizona taking him with the 5th pick. New head coach Jim Harbaugh is a pro style guy and I don’t know that he will be sold by Blaine Gabbert’s spread system past. Again, with the caliber of players still on the board at other positions, it just doesn’t make sense to take Gabbert right now. Quinn addresses an immediate need for San Francisco which is defensive end, and more precisely, a rush from defensive end. Quinn is a phenomenal speed rusher that will rack up sacks by the bushel.
8. Tennessee Titans (6-10)
What they will do: Blaine Gabbert – QB – Missouri
What they should do: Nick Fairley – DT – Auburn
I still believe that pick eight is entirely too high for a guy that took only a handful of snaps under center and in an offense where that same guy only went through more than a two step progression just a few times a game. That being said, I’m not sure the Titans will be able to pass him up. They have a new coach, and the only quarterback on the roster right now is Rusty Smith. I believe the Titans could find decent quarterback value in the second round if the Titans had the patience to wait, but I don’t think they will. They could also trade back into the first round if there was a quarterback they really wanted. The pick they should make is Nick Fairley. There are some concerns about work ethic, but he has Warren Sapp type of ability. His one year of production at Auburn was as impressive as any defensive lineman in the last decade, and that includes Suh. The Titans need to bolster their front seven, and Fairley is the most dominating specimen that can play in the middle in this draft.
9. Dallas Cowboys (6-10)
What they will do: Cameron Jordan – DE – California
What they should do: Prince Amukamara – CB – Nebraska
The sexy pick seems to be Tyron Smith, the tackle out of USC. If the Cowboys were drafting him to play left tackle, I would be inclined to agree. However, Smith would be brought in to compete with right tackle, Marc Colombo. Jerry Jones has never drafted a lineman in the first round, and I have a hard time believing that the first offensive lineman to draft in the first round wouldn’t be a blind side tackle. The Cowboys will make a solid pick in Cameron Jordan. It is a huge need. While the outside backers are good at creating pressure, the defensive front has been horrible. Jordan will provide a huge boost in that area and has already proven he can play in the 3-4 scheme that Dallas uses. Even still, they should draft Amukamara. There are two elite cornerbacks in this draft, and this is their last chance to get the one that is left. The Cowboys secondary was absolutely atrocious last year. Prince could lock down one side of the field. Terence Newman is the best corner the Cowboys have, and he’s aging, seemingly by the day.
10. Washington Redskins (6-10)
What they will do: Nick Fairley – DT – Auburn
What they should do: Nick Fairley – DT – Auburn
With Albert Haynesworth almost certainly not in the picture for the Redskins next year, the Skins will need a defensive tackle that can play in the middle of the 3-4 defense. Fairley may be the next Albert Haynesworth in a variety of ways. He could be the same dominating presence that destroyed opposing lines in Tennessee, or he could be the same disruptive presence that destroyed the Redskin locker room in Washington. If Fairley puts forth full effort on every play, he could be the most dominating defensive lineman in the league over the next decade. Despite the effort concerns, he is an absolute steal for the Redskins at pick 10.
11. Houston Texans (6-10)
What they will do: Aldon Smith – DE/OLB – Missouri
What they should do: Prince Amukamara – CB – Nebraska
Wade Phillips is bringing his 3-4 scheme to Houston. Both players fit an area of need, and Aldon Smith has a ton of potential. Phillips will probably expect the same results with Smith that he got out of Demarcus Ware in Dallas by converting him from a defensive end to an outside rush linebacker. Smith is off the charts physically and should make the transition to linebacker with ease. However, Amukamara is an elite caliber corner and is also a huge area of need. As deep as this defensive line class is, the best option would be to take Amukamara in round one and address defensive end or rush linebacker in the second round.
12. Minnesota Vikings (6-10)
What they will do: Jake Locker – QB – Washington
What they should do: Prince Amukamara – CB - Nebraska
Brian Billick stated it best about Locker. If you don’t produce in college, you probably won’t produce in the NFL. The Vikings need to address the quarterback position and Locker is a tremendous athlete with a great attitude. He has pretty good mechanics, and that is actually a concern. When you are as inaccurate and unproductive as a passer as Locker proved to be for the Washington Huskies, how do you make him more productive if you don’t have his mechanics to fix? Throw in putting him in a more complicated offense than he already runs, and you have the recipe for a bust. According to reports, Minnesota’s front office has fallen in love with Locker and will probably draft him if Gabbert is indeed off the board. Locker isn’t even the best quarterback on the board. That would be Ryan Mallett. As far as value, the Vikings should draft Amukamara. He fits a huge need for the Vikings, and the Vikings could still get a quality arm in the second round if they target an Andy Dalton or Christian Ponder.
13. Detroit Lions (6-10)
What they will do: Tyron Smith – OT – USC
What they should do: Tyron Smith – OT – USC
The Lions will have a tough decision to make as both Prince Amukamara and Tyron Smith are both great values and both hit an area of need. Strictly from a football standpoint, Amukamara might be the biggest need. Their secondary was horrendous last season. From a business standpoint, however, they have to keep their young quarterback upright. The offensive line was as bad as the secondary, and Stafford paid the price. The Lions like the skill players on offense and believe their offense is very close to being elite. The offensive line must improve for that to happen, and Tyron Smith could be a staple at left tackle for quite some time.
14. St. Louis Rams (7-9)
What they will do: Ryan Kerrigan – DE/OLB – Purdue
What they should do: Trade back to someone who wants Amukamara
The Rams evidently believe they can convert Ryan Kerrigan to be a standup, rush linebacker in the 3-4. He has looked rather awkward on film when working in space, so I’m not sold. If Kerrigan pans out as an outside rush linebacker, he would definitely fit a huge need for the Rams. The Rams would love to draft a wide receiver, but there isn’t one with the value necessary for this pick. With Amukamara still on the board, multiple teams could be scrambling to trade up to pick 14 to get him. If the Rams could increase their pick count while moving back late in the first, the Rams could take a flier on Randall Cobb of Kentucky or Jonathan Baldwin of Pittsburgh.
15. Miami Dolphins (7-9)
What they will do: Ryan Mallett – QB – Arkansas
What they should do: Prince Amukamara
The Dolphins have done their homework on Mallett and aren’t buying the smear campaign that seems to continue week after week. The Dolphins have had several discussions with Mallett, and it’s interesting to note that the Dolphins don’t have a second round pick. While Henne is not a long term option, the Dolphins do have needs. Amukamara represents the best value and would start from day one in Miami’s secondary. Mallett would definitely be an upgrade, but after Sparano is out of Miami- and it’s hard to imagine he’ll be there after this year- who knows what offense the new coach will want to run? Great corners can play in any system. He’s the safest pick. The Dolphins could trade back. Many are predicting Mike Pouncey to be drafted here, but it’s way too early in the draft to be drafting an interior lineman.
16. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-8)
What they will do: Prince Amukamara – CB – Nebraska
What they should do: Prince Amukamara – CB – Nebraska
The Jags will do a happy dance if Prince Amukamara is still on their board. While Jacksonville would love to go defensive line, the secondary has been arguably the league’s worst over the last couple of years. With Rashean Mathis and Prince Amukamara on opposite sides, the Jags could be set…at least at the corner positions. There is still a lot of work that needs to be done with the safeties, however.
17. New England Patriots (14-2)
What they will do: Cameron Heyward – DL – Ohio State
What they should do: Akeem Ayers – OLB – UCLA
Heyward is arguably the most versatile defensive lineman in the draft. He’s a football player that has a lot of variety in how he attacks blockers, and the Patriots could use his versatility better than any team in the league. While the Patriots have a lot of concerns along the defensive front seven, he doesn’t answer the biggest concern the Patriots have like others remaining on the board. The Patriots must get more pressure on the quarterback next season, and Ayers will make an immediate impact in that area. Ayers is as versatile as an outside linebacker as Heyward is as a lineman.
18. San Diego Chargers (9-7)
What they will do: Muhammad Wilkerson – DL – Temple
What they should do: Muhammad Wilkerson – DL – Temple
Wilkerson doesn’t represent the best value, as he could probably be drafted late in the first. However, he gives the Chargers what they need, and that’s an end in the 3-4 scheme that can be effective against the run and provide a pass rush. Cam Heyward or Cameron Jordan would be ideal for the Chargers, but I don’t believe they’ll be on the board. The Chargers are a team that could trade back for value.
19. New York Giants (10-6)
What they will do: Gabe Carimi – OT – Wisconsin
What they should do: Anthony Castonzo – OT – Boston College
Some believe that with Ingram not going to the Dolphins at pick 15, that the Giants will draft him here. While the Giants don’t have elite runners behind the quarterback, they are serviceable. What isn’t so serviceable is the offensive line. The interior line is a huge concern, and the Giants will give some thought to drafting Mike Pouncey. But the Giants have issues across the entire line. Both tackles are aging and could be upgraded. Right tackle is the biggest concern which is why I believe they’ll draft Carimi. Carimi is the best right tackle prospect in the draft. Nobody run blocks better. Castonzo, however, is the better left tackle prospect. Castonzo should be drafted and play right tackle until he makes the shift to left tackle. Or, he may just start at left tackle from the beginning.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-6)
What they will do: Adrian Clayborn – DE – Iowa
What they should do: Adrian Clayborn – DE – Iowa
The Bucs, while winning 10 games last season, still have a lot of work to do. The offense wasn’t as explosive as championship teams tend to be, and they desperately need to add some pressure from the defensive end position. I’ve had Adrian Clayborn slotted here since early March, and the reports coming out of Tampa are that they believe he fits the scheme perfectly. He’s the best pass rusher left on the board.
21. Kansas City Chiefs (10-6)
What they will do: Corey Liuget – DT – Illinois
What they should do: Akeem Ayers – OLB – UCLA
For a team that looked so good at times last year, the Chiefs have a ton of question marks. Both tackles need to be upgraded to keep their quarterback, Matt Cassel, healthy. Tamba Hali was a free agent before the Chiefs threw the franchise tag on him. There is no guarantee that Hali comes back after next year, and they need to upgrade the other OLB anyway. Outside linebacker makes the most sense, but I’m not sure that Scott Pioli can pass up Corey Liuget who is an ideal 3-4 defensive tackle. This is also an area of need, but in a group this deep of defensive linemen, they possibly could have answered that question with a second or third round draft choice.
22. Indianapolis Colts (10-6)
What they will do: Anthony Castonzo – OL – Boston College
What they should do: Anthony Castonzo – OL – Boston College
Nobody knows for sure how much longer Peyton Manning is going to play, but the winning window for the Colts is starting to close. As long as the Colts have Manning under center, Indy will always be competitive. That’s why it is so imperative that the Colts make sure they address left tackle to protect the face of their franchise. The Colts have looked at a number of left tackles including Solder, Sherrod, Carimi, and Castonzo. Castonzo impressed everyone with his combine workout, and probably has the best technique in the bunch.
23. Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)
What they will do: Jimmy Smith – CB – Colorado
What they should do: Jimmy Smith – CB – Colorado
The Eagles could look to upgrade their offensive line. They need help both on the interior and the outside. Both spots to the right of center need to be upgraded. That being said, Philadelphia needs to upgrade both corner positions. I have had Jimmy Smith in this slot since early March. If Jimmy Smith were to be off the board, then I believe the Eagles would wait until the second round and try to snag one of the second tier talents available. If it weren’t for character concerns, Jimmy Smith would likely be a top 10 to 15 pick. Andy Reid has a history of forgiving those with a shady past- see one Mike Vick.
24. New Orleans Saints (11-5)
What they will do: J.J. Watt – DE – Wisconsin
What they should do: Marvin Austin – DL – North Carolina
There are a lot of people predicting DaQuan Bowers to fall here. If DaQuan Bowers’s knee is as 100% as he and his agent say that it is, then Bowers should go well before pick 24. However, a lot of doctors are saying that they are finding the reports from his camp too good to be true. It’s scaring a lot of teams away. It would scare me out of the first round. However, if his knee is back to full strength and he keeps it healthy, then this would be an absolute steal. J.J. Watt is considered by many, a top 15 caliber pick, but I don’t buy it. I think I’ll be proven right on draft day when he slips here. I think the Saints will draft Watt based on that perceived value. While defensive end is a need for the Saints, defensive tackle could be a bigger need. The signing of Shaun Rogers three years ago would have been a great move, but Rogers only started one game last year and only racked up 17 total tackles. Marvin Austin is a very versatile player that can play the three technique or the five. He addresses a huge need and comes with less injury risk. He had a phenomenal combine and workout as well.
25. Seattle Seahawks (7-9)
What they will do: Marvin Austin – DL – North Carolina
What they should do: Jonathon Baldwin – WR – Pittsburgh
The Seahawks can’t go wrong with Marvin Austin. He hits an area of need, and is the best player at that position on the board. With the top four quarterbacks gone, the Seahawks won’t take a reach on an Andy Dalton or Christian Ponder. I think the best pick is for the Seahawks to target a big wide receiver that Pete Carroll covets. Baldwin is a huge guy that makes the difficult catch. Plus, it’s only a matter of time before the changing of the guard happens at quarterback, and the new guy needs at least one wide receiver that is a legitimate playmaker.
26. Baltimore Ravens (12-4)
What they will do: Aaron Williams – CB – Texas
What they should do: Derek Sherrod – OT – Mississippi State
The Ravens are looking at a mess at cornerback. They have a ton of free agents they will need to sure up after the CBA gets agreed to, and they weren’t that great at corner even when they had them all. The Ravens will be looking to upgrade and Aaron Williams probably grades out as the highest rated corner on their board. However, I’m not sure that Aaron Williams is demonstrably better than anyone they could target in the second or even third rounds. Derek Sherrod is one of two remaining tier-one tackles, along with Solder. I like Sherrod for the Ravens even though Solder projects as the better left tackle. Sherrod could play either left or right tackle very well. Michael Oher can also play either position, so they could tinker with both and see which combination works out best.
27. Atlanta Falcons (13-3)
What they will do: Jonathon Baldwin – WR – Pittsburgh
What they should do: Nate Solder – OT – Colorado
The Falcons desperately want to get a downfield threat to stretch the defense. None of their current wide receivers have been particularly effective at doing that. Baldwin is a big, tall guy that most corners will have trouble playing jump ball with. That being said, the Falcons could make a heck of a pick by snagging Nate Solder, who might be the best pure left tackle prospect in the draft. Sam Baker, who plays left tackle now, could move back to right tackle which is the weak link on the line. Upgrading two positions with one pick is tremendous value.
28. New England Patriots (14-2)
What they will do: Akeem Ayers – OLB – UCLA
What they should do: Mark Ingram – RB – Alabama
The Patriots will be very tempted to select Mark Ingram, who is probably only slipping this far due to concerns over his knee. In the end, however, I think the Patriots will select Akeem Ayers. The former Bruin has the ideal physical skill package to play rush linebacker in a 3-4 scheme. He’s the perfect answer to the question they have about gaining an outside pass rush from their linebacker position. Even still, I like the Ingram pick better for the Patriots. The Patriots could probably cut a running back or two off the opening day roster by adding Ingram to the fold. The Pats mix and match running backs, each with a specific skill they do better than the others. Ingram can block, catch, and is the best pure runner in the draft. He’s a more powerful Emmitt Smith, but does have considerable injury concerns. This late in the first round, he’s worth the risk.
29. Chicago Bears (11-5)
What they will do: Nate Solder – OT – Colorado
What they should do: Nate Solder – OT – Colorado
Chicago fans will have an absolute conniption if the Bears don’t address offensive line concerns in the first round, especially if both Nate Solder and Derek Sherrod are both on the board. The reaction from the fans will pale in comparison to that of Jay Cutler. This is an obvious choice. If either Solder or Sherrod is off the board, they draft the other one. If both are gone, then Mike Pouncey becomes a very real choice. Forget the talk about drafting a number one wide receiver or a defensive lineman. Yes, those are areas of need, but the Chicago Bear offense is an area of dire straits.
30. New York Jets (11-5)
What they will do: Phil Taylor – DL – Baylor
What they should do: Justin Houston – DE/OLB – Georgia
Now that Kris Jenkins has been cut, Rex Ryan will probably want to address the nose tackle position. Ryan’s first priority is to always stop the run, and Taylor is the prototype for a run-stopping defensive tackle for the 3-4 scheme. That being said, the Jets really need to provide the pass rush from the outside. I really like Justin Houston at this spot for the Jets. If Justin Houston manages to slip here, he might represent the best value because of his position. Houston has most of his experience playing defensive end, but his size and speed dictate that he’s destined for rush linebacker in a 3-4 scheme. He has the pressure ability of a defensive end and the tackle count at Georgia of a linebacker.
31. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)
What they will do: Mike Pouncey – OL – Florida
What they should do: Mike Pouncey – OL – Florida
Most have Mike Pouncey falling somewhere in the middle of the first round, and while it does happen, teams that draft in the first 2/3rds of the first round don’t typically draft interior offensive linemen. If Pouncey does indeed slip to Pittsburgh, he will almost certainly be the pick. The Steelers are desperate to improve right guard, and Pouncey is the best interior lineman in the draft. He also has experience working with their current center, Maurkice Pouncey, who just happens to be his twin brother.
32. Green Bay Packers (10-6)
What they will do: Brooks Reed – DE/OLB – Arizona
What they should do: Derek Sherrod – OL – Mississippi State
I do like the Brooks Reed pick for the Packers. They need to add someone opposite of Clay Matthews to provide pressure from both sides. As stated earlier, Reed fits the bill for a classic 3-4 rush linebacker, so the Packers would be addressing a need. At this point in the draft, however, I think Derek Sherrod is of such value that he’s hard to pass up. Sherrod is probably behind only Castonzo of Boston College as the best all-purpose offensive tackle on the big board. He can play left or right tackle with equal effectiveness. While offensive tackle is not an immediate need for the Packers, left tackle Chad Clifton is 34 years old. The Packers would be wise to get out in front of his retirement and get his future replacement with such great value with the last pick in the first round.
