Andrew Luck is widely accepted to be the first round overall pick if he declares. He certainly could be. He has everything that NFL scouts will look for. He has a strong arm, decent escapability, and excellent intelligence. He’s clearly a leader. What isn’t so clear is why Carolina, who looks to be a near lock to have the first pick in the NFL draft, would draft a quarterback.
Are the Panthers going to be so quick to end the Jimmy Clausen experiment? It wasn’t exactly a Tim Tebow type of draft pick. In fact, he was drafted with amazing value halfway through the first round. While the Panthers could trade down, I don’t expect them to draft a quarterback with the first pick if they hold on to it. So there goes surprise number one in the first TSJ Mock Draft.
1. Carolina (1-12) – Da’Quan Bowers DE Clemson 6-4, 277
Andrew Luck would be the popular pick here by many, but I have a feeling that the Panthers would like to give the highly rated Jimmy Clausen a real chance. Remember, Clausen is just a rookie and was predicted by some to be a top 10 pick last year. The Panthers have a ton of needs, and the defensive line should be near the top. Carolina could trade down for more picks, but if they hold on to it, Bowers makes a lot of sense. He is a sack machine and plays the run very well. His 24 tackles for loss is extremely impressive. Bowers was the best defensive player in college football in 2010. In addition, Bowers is a great regional pick as he comes from Clemson.
2. Cincinnati (2-11) – Andrew Luck QB Stanford 6-4, 235
The Bengals may have considered going defensive line, but with Bowers off the board, Luck basically falls into their lap. The Bengals would love to find a way out of paying Carson Palmer the big money he is expected to earn next year. Andrew Luck would be a long term solution with a ton of upside. The Stanford quarterback has a lot of positives. He is exceptionally smart and has a lot of experience playing in a pro style system. The Bengals could go in a lot of different directions. They could draft A.J. Green if they part ways with either Ochocinco or Owens. They could go defense. They have a lot of holes.
3. Denver (3-10) – Patrick Peterson CB LSU 6-1, 211
Champ Bailey isn’t getting any younger, and the Broncos secondary is need of a lot of help. In addition, it is looking more and more likely that Bailey won’t return to Denver next year. Patrick Peterson may be the best player entering the draft regardless of position, and he would be filling a need for the Broncos. Peterson is a classic, shutdown corner, but he doesn’t shy away from contact. He is an excellent tackler as well as pass defender. He is absolutely electric when he gets the ball in his hands and will score more than his share of defensive touchdowns after picks. He might be the best special teams return man in the draft as well. Denver could go quarterback, and that would likely mean Mallett or Newton. It is hard to imagine that Luck would still be on the board, but both teams ahead of Denver have a ton of gaps to fill, so anything is possible. Marcel Dareus or Nick Fairley is also a real possibility here as well.
4. Detroit (3-10) – A.J. Green WR Georgia 6-4, 207
Wide receiver is not a pressing need for Detroit, but Green should be the clear cut best player remaining on the board. Keep in mind wide receiver was not a pressing need for the Vikings some years ago when they drafted Randy Moss when they already had Cris Carter and Jake Reed. With Randy Moss, the Viking offense absolutely exploded. A.J. Green may be the most anticipated talent at wide receiver since Randy Moss. With Stafford’s arm strength and continued improvement, the Lion offense could become a monster with Green on one side and Calvin Johnson on the other. He has elite level speed, hops, size, and runs impeccable routes. The Lions could draft defense here. The likely choice would be to add Dareus or Fairley to battle alongside Suh or draft Nebraska cornerback, Prince Amukamara.
5. Buffalo (3-10) – Ryan Mallett QB Arkansas 6-7, 238
With Andrew Luck off the board, Buffalo’s prospects for drafting a quarterback are down to Mallett, Locker, and Newton. Newton is a bit of a wild card and Buffalo needs more of a sure thing. Locker has been less than stellar, while Mallett has really blossomed against SEC competition. Mallett has a monster arm and throws a tight spiral with lots of RPMs. That is monstrously important in bad weather Buffalo. Mallett will awe the scouts at the combine with the strongest arm throwing footballs. His footwork has improved dramatically, and his progression analysis is a proven commodity in Bobby Petrino’s offense. Buffalo will have to fill a ton of gaps in the draft and free agency. Buffalo could draft anywhere from the top offensive tackle on their board to Prince Amukamara if he is still available.
6. Arizona (4-9) – Prince Amukamara CB Nebraska 6-1, 202
It is pretty rare to have two cornerbacks taken this high in the NFL draft, but these aren’t your typical cornerback prospects. Amukamara is a coverage machine that will be the epitome of the shutdown corner. He has been superbly coached by one of the best defensive minds in college football and has spent many games out on an island against some of the nation’s best wide receivers. Deciding Arizona’s draft choice is a tough one. They not only have a lot of needs, they are desperate in a lot of positions. The best choice for Arizona may be to address quarterback through free agency. They could take a flyer on Newton if Mallett is already off the board. No chance that Luck falls this far. Offensive line and interior defensive line are also pressing needs for the Cardinals.
7. Dallas (4-9) – Marcell Dareus DE/DT Alabama 6-3, 306
Most teams would select Nick Fairley before Marcell Dareus, but Dareus is the perfect fit for their 3-4 defensive scheme. He is a more versatile player than Fairley. He figures to be a defensive tackle at the NFL level, but his ability to play both on the interior line and outside makes him a more attractive option for the Cowboys. If Prince Amukamara is still on the board, Dallas would probably select him, however. It is also possible that Jerry Jones will fall in love with a player at the combine. If that happens, all bets are off. The Cowboys could draft anyone. Cam Newton is the type of flashy, physically gifted player that Jerry Jones could find very intriguing.
8. San Francisco (5-8) – Nick Fairley DT Auburn 6-5, 310
Whether or not Mike Singletary is still the coach of the 49’rs, I don’t think they hang their hat on Cam Newton. Singletary will not want to draft him when such a good defensive player is on the board, and a new coach will not want to take a JaMarcus Russell bust type of risk this early in the draft. If Nick Fairley is still hanging around the draft board at pick 8, San Francisco almost has to take him. Most draft boards will have him as the number one defensive lineman, and many big boards will have him in the top five. The 49’rs also need to sure up that defensive front, and big Nick Fairley is an excellent way to do that. He is a high motor guy in the middle that is not only a great run defender, but he gets excellent pressure on the quarterback from the defensive tackle position that NFL coaches covet. He has Warren Sapp-type of talent. If Fairley is off the board, that means someone like Dareus or Amukamara has slipped to them. It is very possible that Ryan Mallett also is still on the draft board. The 49’rs would be much more likely to take a shot with a pro-style passer with proven passing credentials like Mallett.
9. Tennessee (5-8) – Robert Quinn DE North Carolina 6-4, 267
Quinn could be the first pick in the draft. Many considered him, not Bowers or Dareus to be the top defensive lineman in the country before he was ruled ineligible all year by the NCAA. A year layoff did not do much damage to Dez Bryant’s draft status, so it would not be surprising to see Quinn drafted anywhere in the top 10. The biggest question regarding his draft status will be what kind of shape he is in during the combine and personal workouts. With his tall frame and lighting fast burst around the end, Quinn has the capability to fill up the defensive stat sheet with sacks, forced fumbles, and tackles for loss. If Tennessee does not resign Jason Babin, drafting a defensive lineman, particularly a defensive end, becomes almost a necessity. This could be the point where Titan fans see how committed to Vince Young the Titan’s owner, Bud Adams, truly is. If the Titans draft a Mallett, Newton, or Locker, Young’s time in Nashville will be short lived, Fisher present or not.
10. Washington (5-8) – Julio Jones WR Alabama 6-4, 211
Julio Jones is one of the most improved players in the nation. That’s a very telling statement because he was already one of the best players in the country at his position a year ago. Two of the criticisms about Jones were his ability to concentrate to catch every ball and his route running. Both have improved dramatically. The Redskins are desperate for a high caliber wide receiver, and if Jones is available here, he would be an absolute steal. Jones is a big, powerful outside threat that is dangerous both over the middle and deep. He is ideal for the Shanahan passing game. The Redskins could go in several directions with their pick. They are definitely in need of a long term solution at quarterback, regardless of the deal they gave McNabb. Running back is an option, but Shanahan believes he can place any runner in his system and if blocked right, can make them adequate. They have deficiencies on the defensive and offensive lines as well.
11. Houston (5-8) – Akeem Ayers OLB UCLA 6-4, 251
If the Houston Texans do not draft defense with their first pick, they should fire…everyone. The Texans can score with the best of them, but their defense makes the word “atrocious” not even applicable. They can’t sustain a pass rush, and their secondary wouldn’t be that good even if they could. With so many of the high-end defensive linemen off the board, along with Peterson and Amukamara, the Texans could go linebacker. Ayers will dazzle the scouts with his vast athleticism. His ability to get to the quarterback is phenomenal from the outside linebacker spot. He may be ideally suited for the 3-4 defense, but his size and speed combination make him very desirable no matter the defensive scheme. The Texans could look to draft on the defensive line. If the ones already predicted to be drafted slip to them, they could jump on that prospect. They could also take a chance on another corner like Janoris Jenkins out of Florida.
12. Minnesota (5-8) – Cam Newton QB Auburn 6-6, 250
Cam Newton makes a lot of sense for Minnesota. Drafting a quarterback in the first round isn’t a certainty, but drafting one in the first three rounds is a must for the Vikings. Favre is retiring for sure this time. There is no guarantee that T-Jack gets retained. It is entirely possible that the Vikings part ways with both quarterbacks, and it makes a lot of sense if they intend to draft the future with a high pick in April. The Vikings may draft their future star and sign a veteran to play next year. A new coach would certainly appreciate the short term fix with the long term security. Newton has all the physical tools to be a big time player in the league. He’s a more athletic Daunte Culpepper, and he led an extremely high powered offense in Minnesota. The offense is ready if they get solid quarterback and offensive line play. The Vikings could draft defense, particularly along the defensive line. They will desperately need both an interior and defensive end presence as they seem to have so many of their defensive linemen coming up on free agency.
13. Cleveland (5-8) – Ryan Kerrigan DE/OLB Purdue 6-4, 259
As tempting as it would be to draft Justin Blackmon, the wide receiver from Oklahoma State, the Browns are desperate for some help on defense. Ryan Kerrigan is the ideal specimen to fit the 3-4 scheme at outside linebacker. He has played the majority of his time at Purdue at defensive end, but he has amazing closing speed with a knack for making tackles behind the line of scrimmage. Cleveland may grade out a player like Von Miller higher who has played in the system and is also a great fit at outside linebacker in the 3-4. They may elect to choose a pure defensive end like Adrian Clayborn of Iowa. Or, they may get flashy and get Colt McCoy a big-time target like Blackmon.
14. New England – from Oakland (6-7) – Adrian Clayborn DE Iowa 6-3, 282
Mark Ingram is an obvious choice, but Belichick sees beyond the obvious. Green-Ellis and Woodhead have done the job in New England this year. Also, Belichick loves to draft and pick up players on the cheap. If Ingram is the first running back taken, his value will be higher than the typical 14th overall selection. Belichick has not been satisfied with the pass rush from his front seven, and this Hawkeye can certainly help with that. He is a big, powerful defensive end with a nasty bull rush. He has the ideal size and strength to play defensive end in the 3-4 scheme while still keeping the speed to provide a pass rush. He’s an ideal candidate for the Pat’s defense. The Patriots could surprise and draft Ingram. He’s not a burner, but he has amazing vision and is a powerful runner that has great tread. His running style would be perfect for the nasty winters seen in many December and January AFC East games.
15. Seattle (6-7) – Anthony Costanzo OT Boston College 6-7, 306
Most mock drafts have Seattle drafting defense, and those assumptions are well-founded. Seattle has been torched, especially against the pass. With the depth of great defensive lineman, Seattle could hold off and get some talent later on the first day. The entire offensive line could be retooled in Seattle. Both of their best tackles are free agents, and neither of them are pro bowl caliber players. There aren’t many players that can play left tackle and play it at an elite level in the draft, so I have a feeling that the Seahawks will jump on the best one in the draft if he’s still around. Costanzo has a great frame for left tackle. He has long arms and a solid base. He has quick feet and good athleticism. An offensive coach like Pete Carroll may not be able to pass up a guy that could hold down a quarterback’s blind side for a decade. The Seahawks certainly could draft defense here. They may also draft a player like Locker or even Ryan Mallett if he somehow slips to the Seahawks.
16. San Diego (7-6) – Von Miller LB Texas A&M 6-3, 243
San Diego must do something about their defense, and Miller is a perfect fit for their 3-4 scheme. He has the ability to be an elite pass rusher from his standup position as well as the speed to cover running backs and big enough to cover tight ends if called upon to do that. It wouldn’t surprise to see the Chargers draft a right tackle. Elite left tackles are in short supply in this draft, so a pick like Sherrod from Mississippi State, Solder of Colorado or Costanzo if he has not been drafted would not surprise. Vincent Jackson likely will not be returning to San Diego, so drafting a talented receiver like Blackmon would not be totally surprising either, though the emergence of Malcom Floyd makes it less likely.
17. Indianapolis (7-6) – Derek Sherrod OT Mississippi State 6-6, 305
Indianapolis will almost certainly address either the offensive or defensive line with their first pick. Defensive line may be more pressing, but the Colts current starter at left tackle, Charlie Jackson, is a free agent. Sherrod could be an instant upgrade for the Colts and a much better long term investment. The winning window for guys like Manning and Wayne may be closing, and they would hate to have it shortened because of an injury to Manning. Protecting his blind side is the best investment the Colts could make. Sherrod is extremely athletic for a 300 pounder. He will be very impressive at the NFL combine. He also run-blocks very well.
18. Miami (7-6) – Mark Ingram RB Alabama 5-10, 215
There is a shortage of great backs in the draft this year. Nobody really does everything well. Ingram is great between the tackles, but he isn’t going to outrun defensive backs in the NFL. For Miami, that isn’t a problem. They rely on tough running and great vision. Nobody in college football runs as hard or has the vision of Mark Ingram. It is entirely possible that both Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams are playing their last season in Miami. That makes Mark Ingram all the more important to the Dolphins on draft day. If the former Heisman winner is available, the Dolphins will have a hard time passing him up. Miami has problems at quarterback, so drafting a Newton, Locker or Mallett if they drift this far is possible.
19. Tampa Bay (8-5) – Justin Blackmon WR Oklahoma State 6-1, 208
A bit of a flier here, but if Blackmon is still available at this pick, I think the Bucs have to draft him. Their running backs have all been effective enough no matter who they plug into that spot. Josh Freeman is a young quarterback on the rise with a good wide receiver and a talented tight end. If they had another legitimate threat to compliment Mike Williams on the outside, the Buc offense could turn into a monster. Blackmon is already a polished wide receiver. He has good size and upper body strength for the position. His speed is plenty good for the NFL level. Tampa Bay could still go defense, but their needs are mostly at linebacker. All of the elite linebackers will probably have been drafted by now. I think this makes the Blackmon pick more likely.
20. Green Bay (8-5) – Janoris Jenkins CB Florida 5-11, 188
The biggest concern for Green Bay is going to be their interior offensive line, but they won’t draft a guard this high. With the top three wide receivers off the board, they won’t take a flier to possibly replace an aging Donald Driver. This means the Packers will be looking at defense, and Jenkins is every bit as good at man to man coverage as the two corners taken ahead of him. If he were an inch or two taller and had another 15 pounds on his frame, he could be a top ten pick. As it is, he is undersized. Even still, teams can put him on an island and expect him to hold down the fort. Green Bay could look at other defensive positions, more specifically, defensive end or linebacker. Jenkins will be a much higher rated overall prospect than any linebacker or defensive end left on their draft board at this point. Keep in mind that Charles Woodson will be 35 before the start of the 2011 season.
21. St. Louis (6-7) – Jon Baldwin WR Pittsburgh 6-5, 225
The Rams have so many deficiencies on defense …they have to choose an offensive player. Sam Bradford is making all the right strides and the Rams are trying to put together an offensive line that will keep him in one piece. But right now, the Rams don’t have a legitimate number one target for the young quarterback. The Rams need to address this area in a big way and walk away from the draft with a target for Bradford for the years to come. Baldwin is a huge target with his size and weight and really has an amazing skill set. If he played on a different team in a better scheme and with a better quarterback, he could be much higher on the draft board. It is possible that the Rams draft to provide some stability along their defensive front, but if there is a wide receiver they really like sitting there on draft day, the Rams will likely draft him.
22. Jacksonville (8-5) – Ras-I Dowling CB Virginia 6-2, 200
Jacksonville has a glaring weakness in their secondary. They desperately need someone to man the corner opposite Rashean Mathis. Dowling is a project, but he has all the physical tools that NFL scouts and coaches covet at the cornerback position. He has unbelievable height for a corner and is very long with an exceptional wingspan. He doesn’t shy from contact, but could use some coaching up on his tackling and technique. Dowling is as athletic a player as any of the corners drafted ahead of him. He’s a raw talent, but the upside is tremendous. Jacksonville could use an upgrade at safety, but it’s doubtful the Jags would draft one in the first round with other obvious needs. A quarterback selection in the first round looked possible until Garrard stepped up his play.
23. Kansas City (8-5) – Bruce Carter LB North Carolina 6-3, 225
If Bruce Carter had not suffered a knee injury at the end of the season, he might have been the first linebacker taken in the draft. In fact, he still could be if a general manager believes in the wonders of modern medicine. Carter has plenty of speed to play sideline to sideline and his coverage skills are arguably the best of any linebacker in the draft. Kansas City has two starting outside linebackers scheduled to hit the free agent market this offseason, including the aging veteran Mike Vrabel. Odds are the Chiefs will not retain both Vrabel and Tamba Hali, and Carter would be an excellent investment at outside linebacker. The Chiefs could look to add a weapon opposite of Dwayne Bowe, but they have more pressing issues on defense. If a defensive tackle they really like is on the board, they could fill a gap there as well.
24. Chicago (9-4) – Nate Solder OT Colorado 6-9, 313
Chicago must upgrade their offensive line. They are not a good running team despite having very serviceable backs. Speaking of back, Jay Cutler has been spending way too much time on his this football season. The Bears’ offensive line may be the worst in the league. Nate Solder has improved dramatically since he was moved from tight end to left tackle. He still needs to add some weight, but he will be the most athletic offensive lineman in the draft. The 300-pounder runs the forty yard dash in under 4.9 seconds. He might be a bit of a project, but he is a very coachable player. Chicago could draft any number of linemen, including one they project at right tackle. If for some strange reason the Bears do not draft offensive line, they could look at wide receiver. Michael Floyd would be the likely pick if they do.
25. New York Giants (9-4) – Gabe Carimi OT Wisconsin 6-7, 327
The Giants are one of the teams that don’t have a glaring need. They have the luxury of picking the best players on their draft board regardless of position. I don’t know if Carimi will be the best available, but he will be a very attractive option for the Giants. Both of the starting tackles for the Giants are on the wrong side of 30. Carimi is somewhat of a project. He is an absolute beast in the run game, but still has some work to do with pass protection. He could turn out to be an outstanding right tackle, and suits the offensive scheme of the ground and pound Giants. The Giants certainly don’t need to draft an offensive lineman. They could draft an interior defensive lineman like Drake Nevis of LSU or a linebacker like Travis Lewis out of Oklahoma.
26. New York Jets (9-4) – Cameron Jordan DT/DE California 6-4, 282
Cameron Jordon absolutely exploded late in the season for Cal. The physical tools have always been there, and finally, the senior put it all together. The Jets and Rex Ryan will love this guy on their draft board. His versatility to play both inside and at the end spot will be valued highly for Ryan and his multiple set schemes. The Jets could address their offensive line, most notably guard by grabbing up Pouncey out of Florida. I just have an inkling that Ryan will want to sure up his favorite side of the ball first. If there is a linebacker or wide receiver the Jets really like, it would not be surprising to see them go in that direction.
27. Baltimore (9-4) – Brandon Harris CB Miami (FL) 5-11, 195
It is hard to believe that Baltimore has a big gap in their defense, but there certainly will be one (or two) in Baltimore. There may not be an elite corner talent left on the board, but Brandon Harris is man’s man. He’s a football player’s type of football player. He loves to hit and plays very physical even with wide receivers that shadow him physically. He is always around the ball and has become very adept at run coverage and blitzing from his corner spot. Keep in mind that run coverage and blitz ability are something the Ravens demand out of their secondary. Other corners on the board such as Aaron Williams of Texas and Jimmy Smith of Colorado may have better measurables, but Baltimore scouts will absolutely love what they see on film from Harris.
28. New Orleans (10-3) – Stephen Paea DT Oregon State 6-1, 290
New Orleans will be drafting a lot of defensive players in April. Their front seven is in need of several upgrades, especially in a division that runs as much as theirs does. Stephen Paea isn’t going to be much of a pass rusher, but he is so strong that he can manhandle a lot of interior offensive linemen. He posted a surprisingly good forty yard dash time, coming in under five seconds. He will ooh and ah the scouts at the combine. He is expected to break the combine records for reps at bench press. That will garner some attention.
29. Philadelphia (9-4) Mike Pouncey OG Florida 6-4, 320
Mike Pouncey started at guard for the Gators this year, but he projects as offensive guard in the NFL. Of course, he’s versatile enough to play center or tackle which makes him a hot commodity. Andy Reid will be looking to upgrade the interior of the offensive line and Pouncey is the best interior offensive lineman in the draft. Reid won’t worry too much about upgrading the skill players on draft day. They will spend some time solidifying the defense, but when you have a quarterback that moves around as much as Michael Vick, putting together a top flight offensive line is a necessity to keep him upright for the whole of the season. Philadelphia could give Arkansas prospect DeMarcus Love a higher grade and draft him here. He has played tackle for the Razorbacks his entire career, but some project him as a guard because of his athleticism and footwork. It’s unlikely, but if the Eagles find an outside linebacker they grade higher than Pouncey or Love, they could go defense in the first round.
30. Pittsburgh (10-3) – DaMarcus Love OL Arkansas 6-6, 310
The Pittsburgh offensive line, especially tackle, will need some love and care on draft day. Both starting tackles are coming off injuries. Right tackle Willie Colon will be a free agent and is not expected to be resigned. The Steelers also have to evaluate the play and depth of their interior line. DaMarcus Love is athletic enough to play either guard or tackle spot, though he is not as technically proficient as some others in the draft. Despite the technical issues, DaMarcus Love is amazingly athletic and is packaged in an NFL-ready frame. His versatility to play several positions on the offensive line will be attractive to the Steelers who have to be concerned about…several positions on the offensive line. It would not be a huge surprise if the Steelers drafted a cornerback with their first selection, but it is unlikely that anyone left on their board wows them at that position.
31. Atlanta (11-2) – Allen Bailey DT/DE Miami (FL) 6-4, 288
Bailey could be the most versatile defensive lineman in the draft. He has the power and size to man the middle in a 4-3 defensive scheme. He has the speed and burst to play outside in either the 4-3 or the 3-4. He has put together a very solid season, and put to rest the ideas of inconsistent play. Defensive coordinators love defensive lineman they can line up inside and out, left side and right side, in order to create mismatches in blocking schemes. Bailey is exactly that type of option. He could possibly start opposite of John Abraham next season at defensive end, and even Abraham is getting a little long in the tooth. Atlanta would like to draft a cornerback here, but if Bailey or a comparable player on their draft board is still there, they will take the best available player. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Atlanta draft a player like Michael Floyd to play opposite Roddy White.
New England (11-2) – Ryan Williams RB Virginia Tech 5-10, 205
There may be some debate if Ryan Williams is the best running back on the board. If Mark Ingram is the best back in the draft, Ryan Williams is right behind him. I don’t know if even Bill Belichick can pass up a stud running back two picks in a row. Ryan Williams is a great fit for the Pats. He doesn’t mess around getting to the hole, but he has the patience to let the play develop. He is one of the better pass catchers in this running back class. Williams possesses good speed and he’s tough to tackle in space. He has also proven to be very durable at Virginia Tech. With the running back carousel that keeps rotating in New England, it might give Belichick some peace of mind at that position. Kevin Faulk and Fred Taylor are always injury risks. It is hard to believe that all the running backs will return for New England when Ryan Williams is Fred Taylor, Kevin Faulk, and Green-Ellis all rolled into one. Still, it is New England, and they could just as easily draft a linebacker, corner, or defensive lineman.
