Boston Celtics Predicted Record: 54-28
Team Overview: Many will cite the Celtics having a healthy Marquis Daniels, as well as a full season of Nate Robinson and the offseason additions of Jermaine and Shaquille O’Neal as reasons the Celtics would be better this year and I wouldn’t dispute that. I would argue that losing Kendrick Perkins, their best center created a clear hole in the middle that neither O’Neal could fill at this stage of their career. I also think that Ray Allen, Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce being another year older hurts their ability to be relied upon for 82 games. The depth is as good as any team in the league but still a clear step back from the starters. Overall, I would say few, if any starting fives work better together but the age and injury history of the unit are the biggest issues I have with giving them higher expectations.
Ranking the Starters: PG: Rajon Rondo – 8.9/10- Rondo has outstanding quickness, probably the fastest player with the ball in the entire league. He is tremendous in transition, in passing lanes and off the dribble in a half court set. His highlight reel looks like an And1 video. His jump-shot is improving but has to continue to improve and extend range wise.
SG: Ray Allen – 8.8/10 – No longer a superstar, Allen still has the prettiest shot in the NBA. His range basically goes from wherever he steps on to the court. Watching Allen work offensively is an exercise in basketball fundamentals, specifically how to use a screen and how to shoot a jump shot.
SF: Paul Pierce – 9.1/10 – He falls just short of a superstar at this point in his career but he is still an all star and emotional team leader. Best actor/Best at drawing fouls in the NBA. Frustrates defenses with a variety of moves. Average defender.
PF: Kevin Garnett – 8.5/10 – Still a great defender and rebounder but his legs are going so his offensive game has become more limited. The explosion he once had is still there but only in very small spurts. He’s become a better jump-shooter as time has gone on but he has a lot of miles on his body at this point and his days as a primary option offensively are gone.
C: Jermaine O’Neal – 6/10 - O’Neal still provides steady play at times when his legs allow him to but he has more then lost a step and his jumping ability, rebounding and short area quickness that allow a player to explode to a hoop have all diminished. His points come nowadays from hustle points and the occasional jumper. Still a good defender and shot-blocker.
Key Reserves: Marquis Daniels – 6.5/10 – Daniels is the top reserve when healthy and he can play either the two or the three. Daniels is a very good on ball defender who has long arms so shooting over him is difficult. He also has a good mid-range jumper.
Nate Robinson – 6.4/10 - Provides instant offense off the bench and is always a highlight reel waiting to happen…sometimes for you and sometimes at his coach’s behest. Does not hustle on defensive end regularly.
Kendrick Perkins – 7.5/10 – Out for a while with a bum knee. The Celtics would probably be another couple of wins better with him healthy for a full year. Steady defender, rebounder and shot blocker who chips in with 10-15 points most nights. Not a superstar but still an effective player. *** ***
***Rating scale ****9.8-10 - Elite **9.0-9.7 – Franchise player **8.5-8.9 – All-star caliber **8.0-8.4 – May make all star game occasionally, usually very good **7.5-7.9 – Above average starter **7.0-7.4 – Average starter **6.5-6.9 – Below average starter/high quality reserve **6.0-6.4 – Good reserve can start in a pinch 5.0-6.0 – Good reserve, ideally should not start *
New York Knicks Predicted Record: 43-39
Team Overview: The only thing that could have gone better for the Knicks this offseason was landing Lebron James. Still, landing Amar’e Stoudemire, Ray Felton, Roger Mason and rookie Timofey Mozgov are an outstanding consolation prize. Trading David Lee for more cap friendly deals of Ronny Turiaf, Keleena Azubuike and youngster Anthony Randolph removed the face of a losing franchise for potential and cap space instead of Lee’s ridiculous 6 year and 86 million dollar deal which sounds a lot like the rest of the Knicks roster in 2006. This team will go as far as the development of young players like Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler, Toney Douglas, Mozgov, and Randolph take them.
Ranking the Starters: PG: Raymond Felton – 7.7/10 – Progressed well under Larry Brown as a PG, but now goes from the ultra conservative Brown to the more laid back Mike D’Antoni. Must continue to become a better jumpshooter to play in this offense. Defense is solid, quickness in the passing lanes is even better. Few players in the league are faster with the ball.
SG: Wilson Chandler – 7.3/10 – Wilson astounds you with his inconsistency. Has nights of brilliance and then confuses you with silly mistakes like you were watching a different player. Jumper is improving; can hit threes but not consistently. Best in transition playing above the rim. Very good in ball denial and guarding a player with the ball but does not anticipate well so steals and blocks are not reflective of how good a defender he is.
SF: Danilo Gallinari – 7.9/10 – Gallinari is often overlooked among young players but at 21 coming off his first full season, you have to think that a player who averaged 16 and 5 and had stats comparable to Dirk Nowitzki’s age 21 season will have raised expectations. Wanted the challenge of guarding the opposing teams best player late in the year and played well.
PF: Amar’e Stoudemire – 9.2/10 – Dominating offensive player with very efficient game. Best player in the league from five feet in, many of which end in dunks. Good jumpshooter. Defense is a matter of effort which has been an up and down part of Amar’e’s game. Blocks shots but not great on the ball. Getting him could be the first piece in the NBA’s next great trifecta.
C: Timofey Mozgov – 7.0/10 – Little known Euro player signed as an undrafted free agent. Had very good camp, so rating is based entirely off that. Still adjusting to NBA rules, especially picks. Good shooter. Tough interior defender who will block shots.
Key Reserves: Anthony Randolph – 7.0/10 – Limitless potential coming off a very bad preseason. He shows poor court recognition too frequently and an unwillingness to pass. Instead of trying to play from 15 feet out, he should be playing from 15 feet in. Should be locked in a room to watch video of Marcus Camby until the light goes on since that is who his game and body type are similar to. Good weakside shotblocker, above average rebounder.
Toney Douglas – 6.7 – Excellent defender who is great at ball denial, anticipation, and staying in front of his man. Understands that defense is played with your feet, not hands. Can score the ball but needs to develop more as a PG. Similar to former Knick, Charlie Ward.
Keleena Azubuike – 7.1/10 - Excellent three-point shooter with athleticism. Coming off a serious knee injury and will not be ready for at least another month or two base on reports but an ideal fit for a D’Antoni team. Tough defender.
New Jersey Nets Predicted Record: 35-47
Team Overview: This team got crushed by injuries last year and for a team that was never that talented to begin with it was devastating. This year the team should be in better position to get better results. They made a few good free agent signings like Jordan Farmar who will solidify the backup point guard role and Anthony Morrow who will give the team a three-point shooter. Then they made a head scratcher signing Travis Outlaw to five years and thirty-five million. There was another bright spot with the trade for Troy Murphy, one of the more underappreciated players in the league. He should team with Brook Lopez to form a solid inside/outside presence that will give opposing frontlines fits. Having Devin Harris back in the mix will most certainly help as he is one of the better scoring point guards in the NBA. One player I am excited to see is Terrence Williams who finished up last year very strong and looks like he could be a triple-double threat on any given night. Love his overall game.
Ranking the Starters: PG: Devin Harris – 8.0/10 – Jump shot is very inconsistent from outside of 18 feet, otherwise a complete offensive player. Tends to score too much and not involve teammates enough at times. Defensively gets overpowered because of his height and frail frame but gets steals due to speed and anticipation.
SG: Terrence Williams – 7.7/10 – Tentative ranking based on role which is still being determined and upward potential. Gets after it defensively and uses lateral quickness to stay in front of his man. Excellent passer. Good three point shooter who can finish. Mid range game needs work.
SF: Travis Outlaw – 6.6/10 – Can score inside or out but not a very good defender. Very good athlete who can finish and block shots because of athleticism.
PF: Troy Murphy – Aggressive rebounder. Not a great athlete by NBA standards but can score in the post or from the perimeter. Three point threat. Not a good shotblocker; mediocre defender.
C: Brook Lopez – 8.7/10 – One of the more intimidating players in the NBA. Blocks and rebounds very well. Good jump shot with developing post game. Defensively he gives even the best players fits. Biggest area for growth is developing a go to post move.
Key Reserves: Anthony Morrow – 6.3/10 – Streak shooter who can carry a team at times. Never seen the defensive side of half court, seems to get lost going that way every time.
Jordan Farmar – 6.7/10 – Lack of confidence in his jumper and overall game is obvious at times. At his best he is good at making the defense collapse and kicking the ball out to a shooter. Can hit the three but shoots a low percentage. Shows flashes of being a very good defender then regresses.
Derrick Favors – 6.5/10 – Tough to rate a third overall pick who probably wont play a whole lot this year due to his need for development. Could easily end up being an all-star caliber player with a Garnett-like upside. Great athleticism and intimidating shotblocker. Needs to develop a post game and jumpshot.
***Rating scale ****9.8-10 - Elite **9.0-9.7 – Franchise player **8.5-8.9 – All-star caliber **8.0-8.4 – May make all star game occasionally, usually very good **7.5-7.9 – Above average starter **7.0-7.4 – Average starter **6.5-6.9 – Below average starter/high quality reserve **6.0-6.4 – Good reserve can start in a pinch **5.0-6.0 – Good reserve, ideally should not start *
- *Philadelphia 76ers Predicted Record: 33-49
Team Overview: Some things are inexplicable, Like the silliness the 76ers showed in dealing Samuel Dalembert’s expiring contract for Spencer Hawes. Dalembert was the teams best defender, certainly their best interior defender, best shot blocker and rebounder by a long shot. I expect the 76ers to struggle mightily against teams with talented big men like Miami, Orlando and even New York. This team lacks anything resembling starting quality at Center and PF…and no Elton Brand does not qualify at this point in his career. I love the potential in the backcourt with Jrue Holiday and Evan Turner, though Turner had a poor preseason and likely will not start. Andre Iguodala is a good, albeit inconsistent player who is brilliant in transition. This team has the foundation of a good team but the overall team itself needs work and may take a step back because the conference has improved and the growing pains of first time starter Holiday at the point. Their lack of three point prowess bit them at times last season as did their general ability to hit jumpshots consistently. Second overall pick, Evan Turner, could eventually help in that area but I question how much that happen this season.
Ranking the Starters: PG: Jrue Holiday – 7.7/10 – Begins his first season as a full time starter over 82 games but played very well at times last year when he was given the opportunity. Game is most similar to Russell Westbrook which makes sense since he was Westbrook’s understudy at UCLA. Jumper needs work but improved throughout the year last year. Devastating quickness on both ends of the court means he could be a candidate to lead the league in broke ankles.
SG: Andre Iguodala - 8.1/10 – Reports have varied as to where he will start but for now I’m putting him here and Turner on the bench until Turner shows something. Too many nights where he just disappears in half court sets to be considered a premier player. Outstanding athlete who plays above the rim. Must continue to work on his jumper. Overplays passing lanes too frequently in anticipation of steals; needs to choose his spots better in that regard.
SF: Thaddeus Young - 8.1/10 – Teams most consistent jumpshooter. Good finisher around the rim. Could become a legitimate go to scorer if he continues to assert himself and develop three point shot. Average defender.
PF: Elton Brand – 7.3/10 – Brand could still revert to form but based on what I saw last year those days are gone. Watching him last year he had no explosion and looked like Larry Johnson after his back surgeries robbed him of his athleticism. Brand was never overly explosive to begin with but now his contract is a hindrance to the teams ability to improve.
C: Spencer Hawes – 7.0 – Good post player who can finish around the hoop. Good rebounder but shotblocking and defense are issues. Good passer. I expect him to start once he comes back.
Key Reserves: Marreese Speights – 6.9/10 – See Hawes. Not as good a passer or shotblocker though making his presence on that end a real concern.
Evan Turner – 7.2/10 – Fits the ideal size requirement you want for a SG. Must become more consistent and adjust to NBA defenses. Great upside but also could be a role player in the long run if he does not pan out.
Lou Williams – 7.5/10 - Score first combo guard could start for a lot of teams if he had a natural position. A lot like Jamal Crawford in that he handles the ball like a PG but shoots so frequently he is really a SG. Prime trade candidate if the team can get an upgrade on the interior.
Toronto Raptors Predicted Record: 19-63
**Team Overview: **There was only one team hurt more by the departure of their superstar this offseason and that is the Toronto Raptors. While Amir Johnson will bring more of a defensive presense and shotblocking presence as a starter then Chris Bosh did. The Raptors still have a nice core with Andrea Bargnani and Demar DeRozan. They should receive steady point guard play from starter Jarrett Jack and reserve Jose Calderon. Offseason addition Linas Kleiza will bring a perimeter presence. But the guy I ma most anxious to watch is Bargnani as he could easily assume more of a primary scoring role and launch himself in to star status. I expect a poor year this year but the future is bright in Toronto with Bragnani and DeRozan.
Ranking the Starters: PG: Jarrett Jack – 7.6/10 – Developing offensive game and improving jumpshot put him in position to take the starting job last year from Jose Calderon. Can get to the basket and finish. Jack is an aggressive defender who has always shown great anticipation for steals and a love for denying points to the opponent.
SG: Demar DeRozan – 7.3/10 – One of the most athletic players and best leapers in the league is an exciting finisher. Has to become a better shooter and I am sure there will be growing pains along the way. Has to get stronger in the upper body to become a better defender. Could become what Vince Carter once was if his jumpshot develops and the consistency is there.
SF: Linas Kleiza – 7.0/10 – Good scorer who can shoot from deep or drive to the hoop. Not a real athletic player but picks his spots well. Not a very good defender but in the past the effort was there. Returns from a year overseas.
PF: Amir Johnson – 7.2/10 – Offensive game is still developing. Starting to show a jumpshot on occasion and always hustles for put-backs. Can finish around the hoop. Good shotblocker with long arms. Good jumper and rebounder.
C: Andrea Bargnani – 8.5/10 – Can play inside or out. Has a variety of moves from the perimeter and can handle and finish. If he develops a better back to the basket game he could become unstoppable. Good shotblocker but rebounding must improve.
**Key Reserves: **Jose Calderon – 7.4/10 – Pass first guard who can run a layup line when he can distribute freely and play in transition. Reluctant to shoot and looses confidence in his shot too much. Defense is a bit soft.
Sonny Weems – 6.2/10 – Highlight reel looks like an And1 video. Can really finish around the hoop but watching him shoot jumpers is like watching Superman sit near kryptonite. Below average defender in ball denial and in guarding his man but shows anticipation and gets steals because of it.
Ed Davis – 7.0/10 – Potential is there to become a star but its going to take time. Davis had the potential to be a #1 overall pick but his lack of a work ethic dropped him down some boards. Could be a better player at the NBA level since he has shown some ability to play with his back to the basket. Will have to become a better rebounder and defender.