Imagine, if you will, an MLB home run derby that consisted of Albert Pujols who had a hypothetical 41 homers at the All-Star break, Ryan Howard with 28, Paul Konerko with 20 and Ichiro with one. Those numbers may seem skewed (actually selling Ichiro short because he’s never hit fewer than six in a full season), but they are as close as you can get to matching the respective number of dunks thrown down by the four players who will be competing in this year’s NBA dunk contest.
Last week’s announcement of the participants initially brought forth a bag of mixed emotions for most; excitement for Blake Griffin and disinterest in the other contestants. At first it might seem like the league’s most exciting young player has the road to victory paved for him by the likes of Javale McGee, Serge Ibaka and Brandon Jennings. The way the event shapes up may not be exactly that simple.
With the exceptions of Dwight Howard and Larry Nance, big men have historically been horrible in the contest. Who doesn’t remember Chris Anderson taking more than 20 feeble attempts to throw an amazingly unspectacular alley-oop to himself? Most tall participants’ dunks don’t look as impressive simply because they are tall. Whether it’s unfair to discount taller players because they start closer to the rim is beside the point. The contest is about oohs and aahs, not equality.
For this reason McGee seems to have already been eliminated. The judges undoubtedly know beforehand that “This guy’s tall, he’s going to have to do something really special,” but don’t underestimate the seven-footer’s ability to do just that. This is the guy who attempted, unsuccessfully, to dunk from the free-throw line in a game against the Kings. That play has inspired more laughs than “WOW”s, but it does give some idea to the confidence McGee has in his own athletic ability.
While he may not be able to do much as far as ball tricks, expect some world-class displays of height and/or length; most likely some variation of a free-throw line dunk, a two-handed power dunk with a twist and maybe a statue of liberty 360. To continue the baseball analogy, McGee is Ryan Howard; he could do something spectacular and take the title home, but is just as likely to whiff his way through the first round and bow out early.
Ibaka almost fits into the same big guy mold as McGee, but doesn’t have quite the same level of athleticism. Youtube evidence shows that Ibaka has never really posterized anyone. No doubt he has the jumping ability, but with little-to-no ball skills and the lack of any defining characteristic he is the contestant almost sure to be eliminated in the first round. Just like Konerko, he might put a few decent ones out of the yard but no tape-measure shots that will get the crowd roaring.
Jennings is obviously the enigma of this contest. He has all of two dunks on his resume this season and is currently recovering from a broken foot. The injury should be fully healed within the next couple weeks. Lebron has continued to claim throughout his career that the contest is too risky to take part in, but Jennings is willing to be a contestant less than a month after returning from the first serious injury of his career.
Hopefully the foot won’t hobble the young point guard, because he will surely be looking to prove doubters wrong. Yes, Jennings stands just 6’1” and has no existing highlight reel of NBA dunks, but he is one of the most creative players in the league with the ball in his hands and was dunking through his legs during Oak Hill Academy warm-up routines three years ago. Ichiro may only hit a few home runs a year, but if you go to Mariners batting practice you will see him knock ball after ball over the fence.
Which brings us to the Pujols of the conversation. In less than half of a season of NBA playing time Griffin has firmly established himself as the best in-game dunker since late-90’s Vince Carter and the most powerful since Shawn Kemp. The three dunks he threw down in one game against the Knicks were all arguably better than any performed by any other player in the league this season.
So a Griffin victory is basically a foregone conclusion, correct? Not so fast. While the buildup and the fact that All-Star Weekend is in L.A. this year make the competition his to lose, Griffin doesn’t have quite the perfect recipe for dunk contest success. His otherworldly hops and unmatched ferocity toward the rim both lend themselves more toward embarrassing opponents than winning competitions whose victors are often determined by creativity.
This is not to say that Griffin can’t be creative, but throw Timofey Mozgov out on the court to try and block the dunks and Griffin would impress much more than he can on the floor by himself. Put it this way, if McGee and Jennings are able to maximize their talents, nail the dunks they come up with and Griffin hiccups even the slightest bit an underdog will be walking away with the trophy.
Those are a lot of ifs, and it would be crazy to bet against a guy who could win the contest based simply on his elevation. Griffin’s competition is much better than they seem at first glance though, and this year’s contest will, undoubtedly, be better than last.