Joe Stevenson (-300) vs. Mac Danzig (+250)
Joe “Daddy” Stevenson (31-11 MMA, 8-5 UFC) is a mixed martial artist fighting out of the Greg Jackson camp. Before joining the Jackson team, Stevenson worked out at Marc Laimon’s Cobra Kai school. He was awarded his black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu from the world class grappler Robert Drysdale. Stevenson also holds a black belt in Judo. He has been training wrestling since age 11 (he’s 28 now) and had his first professional fight when he was 16. Even though his last 11 fights have been at his more natural weight of 155, Joe Daddy was able to win season 2 of TUF as a welterweight.
Stevenson has an incredible amount of fights considering his age. Before he even got his contract with the UFC he beat future UFC fighters Edwin Dewees and Jeremy Jackson, and future Bellator fighter Toby Imada. Since he won the reality show his best wins are over Spencer Fischer, Nate Diaz, Gleison Tibau, Kurt Pellegrino and Melvin Guillard. In his last fight, George Sotiropoulos not only upset him but dominated the fight. The only other UFC fights he has lost were to BJ Penn, Kenny Florian, Diego Sanchez, and Josh Neer.
Mac Danzig (19-8 MMA, 3-4 UFC) also won the tv show The Ultimate Fighter, season 6. That season was welterweights as well and Danzig went back to his natural 155 after the finale. He has a good grappling background and has won 10 times via submission. Danzig trains out of Los Angeles, with Freddie Roach’s assistant, Justin Fortune. On a more trivial level, Danzig is a vegetarian and an excellent photographer. He even has his own website here.
Danzig has beaten former UFC fighters Justin Bucholz and Tommy Speer and fellow 124 combatant Mark Bocek. He has recently been choked out by Josh Neer and Matt Wiman (controversial due to Yves Lavigne stopped it before he tapped or was out). Jim Miller and Clay Guida have also won over him via decision in the last 2 years.
First off, I feel this is a do or die bout for Danzig. He has lost 4 out of his last 5 UFC fights and I find it incredible he is still in the promotion regardless of winning TUF 6. It isn’t going to be an easy task for Danzig to get by Stevenson here since they are somewhat similar fighters, but Stevenson is the better grappler and in my opinion better striker. I have a hard time finding a path of victory for Danzig here, and expect his release shortly after he loses at UFC 124. Danzig will probably want to keep this fight on the feet, but his takedown defense isn’t that impressive. Even if he does outstrike Stevenson I don’t think he has too much of a chance at stopping his takedowns. Against comparable wrestlers Jim Miller and Clay Guida, he was taken down 16 times. Stevenson is a better pure grappler than both of those guys. I expect Stevenson to get a takedown in the first round and control the fight once it hit’s the ground. Joe Daddy should be able to transition with some decent resistance from Danzig. He’ll wear him down with his ground and pound for a few minutes. ** In the second, Stevenson will stick with the same gameplan but will be able to finish with a TKO via ground and pound. Bet: 2 units to win 0.67 units.**