Charles Oliveira (-130) vs. Jim Miller (+110)
Charles “Do Bronx” Oliveira (14-0 MMA, 2-0 UFC) is a 21 year old brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu training with Bronx’s Gold Team. Oliveira says he has been training since he was 9 years old and has a daily regimen of Muay-Thai, BJJ, takedowns and cardio practices. He is well rounded and has 7 submission and 6 knockout wins.
He has yet to receive a blemish on his record yet, but Jim Miller is quite a jump in competition for him. His previous two wins are over Darren Elkins and Efrain Escudero.
Jim Miller (18-2 MMA, 7-1 MMA) is a former wrestler who competed at Virginia Tech for one season. Miller received his black belt in BJJ from Jamie Cruz about 5 months ago.
In the UFC Miller has beaten Gleison Tibau, Mark Bocek, and Mac Danzig. The only two losses in his career are to Gray Maynard at UFC 96 and Frankie Edgar at Reality Fighting 14 in 2006.
After re-watching the Oliveira/Escudero fight a few times, I’ve decided that while “Do Bronx” has a very bright future and a ton of potential, his current skill-set is being a bit overvalued. For some reason during the broadcast Joe Rogan made a comment that seemed to exaggerate what I was seeing with my own eyes. In round 2 he refers to Oliveira “teeing off on Escudero”. What transpired I would not call teeing off. He was landing shots. Teeing off is the last 45 seconds of Lesnar vs. Velasquez. How much can the commentary affect the line in a fight? I have no idea. Even though Oliveira ended up getting a beautiful rear naked choke set up by a throw off the cage, the fight was actually pretty close up until that point. Round 1 could have been either way with Oliveira landing the better and more aggressive strikes, but Escudero had 1-2 takedowns and had some nice elbows from the top. Escudero also had a gameplan that involved standing still and taking leg shots…Jim Miller is a seasoned veteran and should be better prepared. I believe Escudero was afraid of Oliviera’s ground game, and since he isn’t really a jiu jistu player, he probably should have been. Jim Miller won’t have any reason to not try for takedowns and be comfortable in top control. I feel that a lot of the potential hype involving Oliveira here is accredited to his flashy standup style. He throws a lot of exciting kicks/knees, but landed few. Jim Miller is the exact opposite. Methodical and conservative for the most part. Even though he is a decision machine in recent years, I really want to make a “catches the kick and lands an Anderson Silva vs. James Irvin style knockout”. Unlikely to happen to say the least. A better bet and the way I envision this fight playing out is Jim Miller catching a kick, but using that to transition into a single leg takedown. I know its entirely possible for a brown belt to submit a black, but I think Miller will be safe here. I like the pick of Jim Miller via unanimous decision to hand the Brazilian his first loss. Also, a bet of 0.5 units to win 0.55 here.