Starting at the UFC 121: Lesnar vs. Velasquez event, I am going to be breaking the fights down 1 at a time. I will post a new fight analysis every day, leading up to the PPV. I will typically start with the 1st fight of the card and lead up to the main event. The day before the event I will also post my betting recommendations.
Brendan Schaub (+155) vs. Gabriel Gonzaga (-160)
Brendan Schaub (6-1 MMA, 2-1 UFC) was the runner up on season 10 of The Ultimate Fighter reality show. Schaub has some decent striking skills which he honed at The Grudge Training Center in Colorado. The gym is an affiliate of Jackson’s Submission Fighting. Schaub was once on the practice squad for the NFL’s Buffalo Bills.
“The Hybrid” has yet to fight out of the first round in a professional bout, similar to his training partner Shane Carwin…pre-Lesnar. (He didn’t knock out Jon Madsen until round 2 during TUF). His only career loss is a TKO against Roy Nelson. Schaub has gotten his two notable victories over Chase Gormley and Chris Tuchscherer in 47 and 67 seconds respectively.
Gabriel “Napao” Gonzaga (11-5 MMA, 7-4 UFC) holds a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Black Belt under Wander Braga. Gonzaga is arguably the most accomplished Jiu-Jitsu practitioner in the UFC’s Heavyweight division. He was able to win the gold medal at the 2006 Mundials, the worlds most prestigious BJJ tournament.
Even though Gonzaga has such a valuable ground game, he likes to stand and trade quite a bit. He holds a highlight reel knockout over Mirko Cro Cop at UFC 70 via vicious head kick. Besides Cro Cop, he really hasn’t beaten anyone of high standing: Chris Tuchscherer, Josh Hendricks, Justin McCully. Gonzaga had a title shot against Randy Couture at UFC 74, but was defeated via TKO. Fabricio “The Fedor Killer” Werdum has finished Gonzaga twice as well. In more recent fights, Shane Carwin was rocked by the Brazilian, but came back to get a 1st round knockout. Junior dos Santos also felled Gonzaga in the 1st, in his last fight.
This matchup can go two ways in my opinion. Either Gonzaga will fight a smart fight, get this to the ground and overmatch the younger Schaub with his elite BJJ. Or, Gonzaga can try to strike with Schaub, where I feel he will be on the wrong end of the exchanges. Schaub is younger, faster, and just generally more athletic. Recently “The Hybrid” has been talking some trash about Brock Lesnar’s training camp, which makes me question his mental state going into this fight. Is he focused 100% on Gonzaga? Is he overlooking this fight? Well, I think Schaub is going to pull this out. The fight starts on the feet, and between the chance of Gonzaga wanting to stand and strike and the possibility that Schaubs takedown defense is able to prevent a ground fight, he has a solid chance at getting past the veteran. I feel Gonzaga will start the fight wanting to strike, but will repeatedly get beaten to the punch by the faster Schaub. After awhile, maybe in the late 1st or early 2nd round, he will try to get it to the ground. I think the younger, likely better in shape Schaub will be able to defend his attempts at securing a takedown. With some solid counterpunching, Brendan Schaub will get a TKO in the 2nd round.