Starting at the UFC 121: Lesnar vs. Velasquez event, I am going to be breaking the fights down 1 at a time. I will post a new fight analysis every day, leading up to the PPV. I will typically start with the 1st fight of the card and lead up to the main event. The day before the event I will also post my betting recommendations.
Diego Sanchez (EV) vs. Paulo Thiago (-115)
Diego “Nightmare” Sanchez won Season 1 of The Ultimate Fighter when he defeated Kenny Florian at middleweight. Sanchez has a high school state wrestling championship to his credit and is well versed in Greg Jackson’s own martial art, Gaidojutsu. Diego also has attained the rank of brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.
When Sanchez was at lightweight he was able to beat Clay Guida and Joe Stevenson before falling short in his bid to become the UFC champion when he was beaten badly by BJ Penn. After the Penn loss Sanchez returned to welterweight, where he had moderate success with wins over Nick Diaz, Karo Parisyan and Joe Riggs. He was 17-0 before being decisioned in consecutive fights against Josh Koscheck and Jon Fitch. In his first fight back at welterweight “Nightmare” was thoroughly dominated by John Hathaway.
Paulo Thiago (13-2 UFC, 3-2 MMA) is a member of BOPE, the Brazilian elite police force. Thiago has a strong Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu background and has received his black belt from Ataide Junior. He also has a black belt in Judo. For the most part, Thiago trains at Constrictor Team in Brasilia.
Since he signed with the UFC, Thiago has achieved a huge knockout over Josh Koscheck, a fight in which he was a +350 underdog. He has also beaten former University of Minnesota standout Jacob Volkmann and Mike Swick as well. His only losses are decisions to Jon Fitch and Martin Kampmann.
In my opinion, this is the hardest fight on the main card to make a pick. In Diego’s last fight, I became convinced that he did not belong at 170. I still feel he is a bit small for welterweight. Hathaway’s reach gave Sanchez fits, and while Thiago is 3 inches shorter, his reach is only 1 inch less. Neither one of these fighters have great striking by any means, so I think the reach will once again come into play while standing. If this fight goes to the ground I would like to give the advantage to Thiago with his black belt in BJJ, but he was handled pretty easily by Martin Kampmann on the mat. I don’t think either guy will be afraid of this going to the floor, so I see this as a wash. I really think it comes down to Thiago’s reach advantage standing. At these odds, and the confidence I feel in this pick, there will definitely not be a wager made! I’m predicting Thiago will have a slight edge when they are up, and if and when it hit’s the ground scoring could go either way. I will go with Paulo Thiago via Split Decision.