Brock Lesnar (-135) vs. Cain Velasquez (+130)
Brock Lesnar (5-1 MMA, 4-1 UFC) is back in the cage after withstanding Shane Carwin’s alleged roid rage at UFC 116. If you don’t know Lesnar, I’ll fill you in. He is a former NCAA Champion for the Minnesota Gophers. His junior year, he was beaten by Stephen Neal in the finals. Neal went on to start at guard for the Patriots and won 3 Superbowls. According to Maggie Hendricks, he had never played a down of football before that. How’s that for athleticism? Before Lesnar was at the University of Minnesota, he won a NJCAA title with Bismark State. After college, Lesnar went on to becoming a huge draw for the WWE. Even though its scripted sports-entertainment, it takes an incredible amount of athletic ability. After his WWE endeavor, Lesnar tried out for the Minnesota Vikings, and was offered a contract in NFL Europe, but he declined.
After he transitioned to MMA he quickly showed his abilities as a powerful wrestler with devastating ground and pound. He won a quick fight over Kim Min-Soo, a Judo Silver Medalist at the 1996 Olympics. Shortly thereafter Lesnar was signed by the UFC. He was literally thrown to the wolves in his 2nd professional fight versus former UFC Heavyweight Champion Frank Mir. In the bout that ensued Lesnar stormed Mir with a takedown and ground and pound. Referee Steve Mazzagatti ruled that Lesnar was striking the back of Mir’s head, deducted a point, and stood them back up. Lesnar quickly dropped Mir again, but in his greenness of the sport, allowed Mir to snatch his leg and apply a kneebar. After the loss, matchmaker Joe Silva gave Brock a more fitting opponent for his lack of experience in the sport, Heath Herring. Brock landed a great straight right quickly which caused Herring to do a complete backwards somersault. He then had his way with Herring for the next 15 minutes. Although he was not able to finish the fight, it was a complete domination. Brock then took on UFC Hall of Famer Randy Couture for the UFC Heavyweight title. Lesnar won via TKO in round 2. He then had a rematch with Frank Mir to consolidate the belts. In Lesnar vs. Mir II, there were no flash submissions by Mir, as he was manhandled until the inevitable TKO via ground and pound. This set up his first undisputed title defense against Shane Carwin. Carwin was 12-0 going into the fight with 12 first round finishes. Brock caught an uppercut early in the fight that wobbled him bad, and Carwin capitalized. Carwin relentlessly threw strikes while Brock was on his back and referee Josh Rosenthal threatened to stop it. Lesnar recovered and came back in round 2 with a arm triangle choke over a noticeably gassed Carwin.
Cain Velasquez (8-0 MMA, 6-0 UFC) in another high level wrestler but has 7 wins via TKO/KO. Velasquez won the Arizona High School state title twice, then went onto Iowa Central Community College and picked up a NJCAA Title. He then transferred to Arizona State University and was able to become an All-American twice. Velasquez placed 5th his junior year, and 4th his senior year. Both years he was defeated by new Bellator Heavyweight Champion Cole Konrad, as well as Michigans Greg Wagner. Cain has trained at AKA (American Kickboxing Academy) under Javier Mendez since he graduated ASU.
Cains career path in MMA was a bit different than Lesnars, as he got a few “cans” to warm up on before treading in deeper waters. In his 4th UFC fight he took on Cheik Kongo and was tagged multiple times while standing, but the combination of his elite wrestling and Kongo’s lack thereof was too much to overcome as he pulled out a unanimous decision over the UFC veteran. He then took on Ben Rothwell who at that point hadn’t really beaten too many stalwarts besides Roy Nelson, an aging Ricco Rodriguez and an undersized Krzysztof Soszynski. Cain’s speed and athleticism were too much and he won via TKO in the 2nd round. In Velasquez’s last fight he took on Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, and knocked him out on the feet with a beautiful right hand in the 1st round.
Cain Velasquez has been undersized his whole wrestling and MMA career. Taking on a guy the “weight” of Brock Lesnar won’t be anything new for him. Problem is Brock’s weight is different than anyone elses weight at 265. Brock Lesnar is not your normal 265 pound fighter. If this was a wrestling match, I’d probably take Velasquez. Even though he doesn’t have an NCAA title, Lesnar never had a guy like Conrad on his chart the year he won his. I feel too much is being made of Cain’s “gas tank”. Exactly when has Brock gassed? What happens if and when Brock does not tire? I realize Heath Herring does not have the skillset that Velasquez has, but Lesnar looked pretty fresh in minutes 10-15 of that bout. Another thing that seems to be being pushed is how great Cain’s hands are. Two things: First, his standup was nothing special against Cheick Kongo. Secondly, his fight with Nog is overrated. True, he knocked out Nogueira, but Big Nog was badly hurt by Tim Sylvia on his feet at UFC 81 and Frank Mir at UFC 92. Brock may not have the boxing technique that Cain has, but I feel he more than makes up with it with raw power. I think this fight will spend quite a bit of time clinched up against the cage with Lesnar trying to secure a takedown and Cain defending it the first couple of rounds. By the third round, when both of the fighters are a little winded, I see Brock securing the takedown and opening up on top. It only takes a few shots from Lesnar’s “lunchbox hands” to get the referee to stop it. Brock Lesnar retains the belt with a 3rd round TKO.
Since this is the final fight of the pay-per-view and my last breakdown of the main card, I am going to post my bets and links to all other breakdowns.
UFC 121 Official Main Card Picks:
Brock Lesnar over Cain Velasquez via TKO 3rd Martin Kampmann over Jake Shields via Unanimous Decision Paulo Thiago over Diego Sanchez via Split Decision Matt Hamill over Tito Ortiz via TKO 3rd Brendan Schaub over Gabriel Gonzaga via TKO 2nd
Official UFC 121 Bets:
After winning another 1.15 units at UFC 119, my total since the start of thesportsjury.com is up to +6.2 units. Again, I’d like to note that I use odds as of the time of writing. Brock Lesnar 0.67 units to win 0.5 units Martin Kampmann 0.5 units to win 1.0 units Matt Hamill 1.86 units to win 1.2 units Brendan Schaub 0.6 units to win 0.93 units
Total= 3.63 units risked to win 3.63 units.
Good Luck!