The Ultimate Fighter 12: Team GSP vs. Team Koscheck takes place on Saturday on Spike Network.  A middleweight contest featuring Demian Maia vs Kendall Grove will be the 2nd fight of the main card.  Here is my analysis and prediction of this upcoming fight.

Demian Maia (-360) vs. Kendall Grove (+305)

Demian Maia (13-2 MMA, 7-2 UFC) has some of the best Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu in the middleweight division.  Maia is a 2nd degree black belt under Fabio Gurgel.  While competing at the prestigious ADCC submission grappling tournament, Maia was able to get to the finals twice, winning once.   4 out of his 7 UFC wins have resulted in “Submission of the Night” honors, while 8 of his total 13 wins have been via submission.

Since Maia has joined the UFC his only two losses have been a 21 second knockout to Nate Marquardt and a lackluster fight against Anderson Silva.  The fight with Silva was a decision loss for the middleweight title.  The most notable fighters he has beaten would be: Chael Sonnen via triangle choke at UFC 95, decision over Dan Miller at UFC 109 and a decision over Mario Miranda at UFC 118.

Kendall “Da Spyder” Grove (12-7 MMA, 7-4 UFC) was the winner of season 3 of “The Ultimate Fighter”.  Grove was a wrestler in Hawaii before he began training to fight.  He trains at BJ Penn’s gym and is listed as a muay-thai/BJJ fighter.  In an interview he stated his favorite technique is to “stand and brawl”.

Grove has beaten former UFC fighters Goran Reljic, Jake Rosholt, Jason Day and Evan Tanner in the last 3 years, while being knocked out against Mark Munoz and Jorge Rivera.  He also lost via decision to black belt Ricardo Almeida.  

I normally don’t like to bet on fighters if they are greater than -300 favorites, but I feel Maia’s line has some value.  I really cannot envision Grove winning this outside of a “lucky shot”, and I am giving him the so called “punchers chance” here.  The fight starts out standing and that is exactly where Grove needs it to stay.  Maia’s standup has been looking a lot better and I don’t think that Grove even has an edge there, besides the obvious reach advantage. (Grove is 6’6 with a 79 inch reach; Maia is 6’0 with a 72 inch reach).  But I really don’t see this fight staying standing long.  Grove has average takedown defense.  I see this fight playing out quite a bit like Miranda vs. Maia, except I feel Maia can get the finish here.  Maia is going to get the takedowns and I just can’t see Grove getting away, sweeping or keeping this fight on the feet.  Maia will use his superior ground game to control Grove.  At some point Grove is going to get frustrated with the grappling ability of Maia and will make a mistake.  ** I believe Demian Maia will submit Kendall Grove in the 3rd round.**