Strikeforce San Jose: Diaz vs. Noons II should be an exciting card with a solid mix of up and comers and solid veterans.  2 belts are on the line, the Strikeforce Welterweight strap and the 135 pound women’s title.

Nick Diaz (-230) vs. KJ Noons (+215)

Nick Diaz (22-7) makes his first title defense after dispatching Marius Zaromskis at Strikeforce: Miami.  Diaz has a very active standup game, throwing his jab constantly.  He is a lanky fighter and is pretty successful on his feet.  His big strength is on the ground though.  Diaz is a black belt under Cesar Gracie and has subbed 7 opponents.

KJ Noons (10-2) is coming off of a highlight reel knockout of Jorge Gurgel.  He was losing to Diaz at an Elite XC contest, before a cut stopped the fight, giving the win to Noons.  Noons is one of the better boxers in MMA, and has a 12-2 pro boxing record.  

  I predict Diaz to work his jab and hold his own on the feet.  Noons will have a hard time pulling out a win unless he gets a clear knockout.  If he rocks Diaz, he will have to attack on the ground, and Diaz could be playing possum ala Fabricio Werdum.  At some point this fight is going to hit the ground, where Noons is outclassed.  Nick Diaz via submission round 2.

Sarah Kaufman (-275) vs. Marloes Coenen (+250)

Sarah Kaufman (12-0) won her last fight by picking Roxanne Modafferi off of the ground and viciously slamming her, securing the knockout.  

Marloes Coenen (17-4) last was in the cage against Cristiana “Cyborg” Santos and received a solid beating.  I wouldn’t hold that against her too much, as Cyborg is destroying any woman put in her path currently.  Before losing to Cyborg, she submitted Roxanne Modafferi in the first round.  

I think Kaufman should be able to pull out a win, but at these odds the value might be in Coenen.  I think the line is skewed a bit due to Kaufman’s “Sportscenter top 10” knockout, and Coenen’s last fight being beaten bad by Santos.  My official pick will be Kaufman via Unanimous Decision.

Josh Thomson (-160) vs. JZ Cavalcante (+150)

Josh Thomson (17-3) is looking to get another title shot against Gilbert Melendez after being defeated by him in December.  Thomson’s last fight went well, getting a rear naked choke in the 3rd round against Pat Healy.  

JZ Cavalcante (15-3) has been fighting over in Japanese promotions for quite awhile.  His last fight he beat a very game Katsunori Kikuno.  Before that win, he lost to Shinya Aoki and Tatsuya Kawajiri, both very respectable opponents.

Thomson might have the better standup, but I give the edge to JZ on the ground.  This is a hard fight to call, but I think JZ will be able to control Thomson on the ground at least 2 of the 3 periods.  I think there is some solid value in a wager on JZ.  JZ Cavalcante by Unanimous Decision.  

Tyron Woodley (-240) vs. Andre Galvao (+235)

Tyron Woodley (6-0) is a 2 time NCAA All-American for Missouri.  He obviously brings a real strong wrestling game into the cage, but in his last fight appeared to gas pretty heavily.  

Andre Galvao (5-1) is a highly accredited Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu practitioner.  He won world titles as a black belt in 2005 and 2008.  His only loss is a somewhat controversial decision defeat at the hands of Jason High in Dream.  

The way mixed martial arts have been going, you would have to think Woodley is a pretty safe bet.  I am sure this fight will hit the ground, but will Woodley be able to apply ground and pound while avoiding a submission?  I think so, but I feel this fight is a lot closer than the line suggests. My official pick will be Tyron Woodley via Unanimous Decision, but there is a very high chance the elite BJJ practitioner will be able to submit him.  I actually think the most value betting wise on this card is in Galvao.  I want to pull the trigger on picking Galvao, but the more conservative pick is Woodley.  

Official Picks

Nick Diaz Sarah Kaufman JZ Cavalcante Tyron Woodley

Strikeforce Bets

Cavalcante 0.5 units to win 0.75 units Galvao 0.2 units to win 0.47 units