It is almost spring time and baseball stories are rolling in like waves on the Sarasota beaches. Fans are feeling optimistic about their team’s chances for the 2011 season. They are looking over their pocket schedules and trying to figure out which games to go to and what section they should sit in to catch a homerun. They are looking over the lineups and depth charts while quietly in their heads they are penciling in a new first baseman for 2012. They say, “Our team looks really good this year but it seems to me that all we need is Albert Pujols and then we will be awesome for about a decade. I know my team’s ownership will step up and show us loyal fans that we deserve the best, and the best is Albert Pujols!”

Well, I am sorry to say fans but loyalty to a baseball team only guarantees you two things: Number one- You have a one in thirty chance of winning a world series. And number two-You will have the chance to purchase playoff tickets, if you buy a ticket plan for the regular season and if your team qualifies for playoffs.

Pujols has put a deadline of spring training to agree to a new contract with the Cardinals. I am going to give a list of teams that will have a legitimate shot at signing Albert Pujols if he does not agree to an extension by then. I have looked over all major league ball clubs and weeded through them based on certain criteria that would qualify them as a candidate to land Albert Pujols. The qualifications are: Money (around $30 million per year and where it comes from), position availability (First base because I doubt anyone signs him long term to play third), and competitiveness (I was a little flexible on this because any team with Pujols on it will most likely be competitive). I have them listed here in no particular order.

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Teams with a legitimate shot at signing Pujols

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs will have around $44 million coming off the books for the 2012 season with the expiring contracts of Fukudome ($14.5MM), Carlos Pena ($10mm), John Grabow ($4.5MM) and Aramis Ramirez ($14.6MM), assuming the cubs don’t pick up his option. They get even more off the books in 2013 in the form of Dempster ($14MM), Zambrano ($19MM), and Marlon Byrd ($6.5MM). Not that money is ever an issue for the Cubs anyway, but it looks like they will have the financial means to sign their longtime nemesis and turn him into Mr. Cub as opposed to Mr. Cub-Killer. First base will be available after this season when they learn, the hard way, that Carlos Pena is a human rally killer and they let him go after the season. Competitiveness has never been an issue for this ownership, as shown by their willingness to spend money for whatever they think will improve the team. They should have done better last year but for the most part they are in contention every year and have shown that they would be willing to invest in the pieces to surround Pujols.

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Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers won’t have a boatload of money over the $30 million coming off the books but they will be losing the contracts of Furcal ($13MM), Kuroda ($12MM) and Broxton ($7MM). Their ownership group is going through some financial issues right now but things must not be as bad as they say since they just signed Lilly to a relatively lucrative deal. James Loney holds down the fort at first base right now, but trade rumors have been tossed around for quite some time and I could see the Dodgers finding a way to part with Loney for the chance to grab a ticket-selling name like Pujols. The team is competitive and Pujols should like the way the rotation looks for the foreseeable future with Kershaw, Lilly and Billingsley leading the staff.

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Toronto Blue Jays

A good portion of the money they would need to sign Albert came off the books this year with the amazing trade of Vernon Wells and his daunting contract. That move alone freed up about $21 million. Juan Rivera will be coming off the books after this year at a salary of $5.25 million. This total does not add up to the necessary $30 million plus needed but the Blue Jays have spent as much as $97 million as recently as 2008 and their payroll obligations for 2012 should be around $40 million. That would leave an estimated $57 million available and leave them some room to make moves around Pujols. The team seems to find a way to be relatively competitive even with being in the AL East and they may look at Albert as the guy to take them into the ranks of the Yankees and Red Sox. Baseball isn’t going to realign any divisions anytime soon so the Blue Jays may have to take the “If you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em” mentality and spend with the big boys if they wish to win a division crown again.

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Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox recently acquired Adrian Gonzalez but they have yet to sign him to a long term deal so until that happens they qualify to make the Pujols sweepstakes list. The BoSox have plenty of money coming off the books for 2012 with the expiring contracts of JD Drew ($14MM), David Ortiz ($12.5MM), Jonathan Papelbon ($12MM), Mike Cameron ($7.75MM) and Adrian Gonzalez ($6.3). I know they would like to lock up Gonzalez to a long term deal considering the package of players they gave up to get him, but if they lose out on signing Gonzalez, I would expect them to jump in full throttle to try to sign Pujols. The Red Sox play hard, have a loyal following and have shown they are one of the best franchises in baseball. That will be quite alluring for a player such as Pujols. Like I said though, all of this rides on whether or not they can reach a long term deal with Gonzalez. If they do, don’t look for them to sign Pujols to DH because that won’t happen.

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St. Louis Cardinals

In order for the Cardinals to land Pujols, they will have to basically do addition of getting to keep Pujols by subtraction of Chris Carpenter and Lance Berkman. A lot of times it is hard for teams to justify sacrificing your own quality players just to keep what you already have. This will weigh heavily on the minds of the Cardinals’ front office as they prepare to make the biggest decision of the franchise’s last twenty years. I definitely see them as a player in the bidding for Pujols but the Cardinals seem to keep trying to portray themselves as a small market team. Well, they aren’t and they shouldn’t. They should just put up the bucks and bring back the face of the franchise. The new Busch stadium is packed almost every night and it seems as if their fan base is growing exponentially every year. Right now the Cards run the show in the Pujols sweepstakes but they won’t after spring training starts and they’d hate to have to go through the courting process with a player that has already been there. While other teams are showing Pujols new and cool stuff he hasn’t seen before to help lure him to their team, the Cardinals will be taking him to see the same stuff he’s seen for years. I can hear it now, “And over here, Albert, we have a locker with your name on it and your stuff in it. While over here we have installed a new water fountain. Nice huh?”

Now I have a list of outside contenders. This list is not based on the money needed coming off the books at the end this year but instead it is based on 2012 salary obligations in comparence to a recent year’s payroll. I have used my own judgment to figure up arbitration amounts and whether or not options will be picked up, so by no means are these numbers exact.

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Cleveland: 2008-2009 they averaged a payroll of $80 million while 2012 salary obligations are at around $45 million. I don’t see Cleveland in a position to talk Pujols into going there and they should focus their efforts on the rebuilding process and revisit signing a big time free agent when that process starts to come to fruition.

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San Diego: 2008 payroll was $73 and 2012 obligations amount to around $25 million. The Padres seem to be strapped for cash since they couldn’t sign hometown boy Adrian Gonzalez and I would be shocked if they even made a play for Pujols. They seem to be headed in no direction whatsoever.

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Tampa: 2010 payroll was $74 million and the 2012 obligations will be around $25 million. Unless a miracle ballpark pops up in the middle of St. Pete, I don’t see the team even entertaining the thought of signing Pujols. However I didn’t think they would sign Manny Ramirez this year but that’s a different story all together.

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Kansas City: The Royals’ payroll in 2010 was $74 million (How? I have no idea) and their payroll obligations for 2012 stand around $28 million. The only thing they have going for them is that Pujols is familiar with the Kansas City area and he had lived there before. Heck, I used to live in Greensboro, North Carolina, but I’m not going back there anytime soon.

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Baltimore: The 2010 payroll sat at $73 million and 2012 obligations will leave them at around $40 million. There isn’t a whole lot of room for the Orioles to work with money wise, so unless the owner, Peter Angelos, wants to dump serious amounts of money into the club like he did in the mid- nineties, you won’t be seeing Albert Pujols mashing balls off the ugly Hilton in left field anytime soon. I am an O’s fan and I wish I could come up with a better argument for Pujols to become an Oriole but I just don’t see one.

There is the list of teams that I believe to have a legitimite shot at signing Albert Pujols. There is always a chance that some other team will come out of the woodwork and make a surprise move for him, just like the Phillies did with Cliff Lee. Below, I will rank the teams by who I think would be the favorite to sign him. Please feel free to post your thoughts and rankings as well. T-minus two weeks until the sweepstakes begin, but, until then continue to enjoy shoveling your car out of the snow and tossing down ice melt. Nothing beats a warm cup of cocoa after freezing your ass off all day. Well, nothing except everything that pertains to spring time and baseball. I hate you Southern California and your beautiful weather!

Best chance to get Pujols

  1. Cardinals

  2. Cubs

  3. Red Sox

  4. Blue Jays

  5. Dodgers

I would like to thank Cot’s Baseball Contracts for access to all the payroll amounts. Feel free to follow me on Twitter @mpwherley.