1. Cliff Lee – Philadelphia Phillies – 5 years/120 Million
The long term implications here aren’t as important as the fact that the Phillies have potentially formed the most dominant staff in Major League Baseball since the Braves staff of the early 90’s that featured Maddux, Smoltz, Glavine and Avery by pairing Lee with Halladay, Hamels and Oswalt. It is important to note that Hamels and Oswalt are free agents after the season with Oswalt having a team option at around 17 million so this may only be a one-season thing but the potential for dominance is certainly there. It was possible this was the best staff in baseball one through five before signing Lee. Now even if the Phillies turn around and trade Joe Blanton and the remaining two years and 17 million on his deal they most certainly are the best staff in baseball even if they don’t declare a fifth starter until Spring Training breaks. While I am not sure I would necessarily take Lee and Halladay over Lincecum and Cain it is certainly a closer call then Halladay and Oswalt as the one-two punch for the Phillies. The Phillies may regret this move by year three or four of the deal if Lee declines quickly but the hope is by then that they will have secured a championship or two, which as a fan that is all you can ask of your team that they show a willingness to make the bold moves to put you over the top. In a division filled with strikeout heavy teams such as the Mets, Marlins and Nationals this move could result in a 105-110 win season in Philadelphia.
Verdict: It pains me to do this as a Mets fan but this move is an A all the way even if the contract does at some point prove burdensome. Aces cost bigtime cash and the Phillies got one even if he is nearing the end of a players typical prime years.
2. Adrian Gonzalez – Boston Red Sox – No contract terms released yet
I posted my thoughts on this move on the board after the trade was made. This should have the same effect for the Red Sox that Mark Teixeira had for the Yankees lineup. Indeed, Adrian Gonzalez qualifies as the type of bat that transcends a good lineup to a great one. With a Wins Over Average Replacement (WAR) of 5.7 last year and an OPS over 900 the last two years Gonzalez qualifies as an elite offensive force and with actual lineup support around him, Gonzalez could very possibly improve on those numbers. The other part of the equation is that being out of Petco Park and in the shorter porches in Fenway and his new AL East rivals he could very well hit his way in to MVP contention this year. Gonzalez will cost the Red Sox dearly to sign beyond this year (rumored to be 8years/161 Million) as he is in the prime of his career, but the contract extension is, as of now, just speculation and not official to my knowledge.
Verdict: In the last season of a bargain (by MLB standards) contract, the move has to be graded on what we know and what we know is that the Red Sox got themselves a hell of a good player for prospects which are slightly above average. I can’t blame them for working the system when their rivals in New York certainly do it. It is a great move for the Red Sox. A+
3. Carl Crawford – Boston Red Sox– 7 years/142 Million
The Red Sox needed an outfielder pretty badly coming in to this offseason and had previously discussed bringing in Carlos Beltran and the final year of his deal. Would that have been more cost effective? For now, yes, even at 18 Million this year. I am not sure how wise it is giving a player whose game revolves almost entirely around speed a 7-year deal worth more then slightly more then 20 Million per season when he is entering his age 30 season and when he has a career 781 OPS and came off a season where he had a few hamstring injuries. While I certainly respect Theo Epstein’s ability to evaluate talent and admit when his roster needs a bit of an overhaul, if the Mets give Reyes this kind of contract next offseason Ill be quite annoyed even if he is a better player and a more valuable player then Crawford. Crawford is coming off a career best in home runs, RBI and WAR. That he did it in a contract year could be both comforting and alarming at the same time in that his game may be changing, part out of necessity and part out of maturity.
Verdict: Bringing a player aboard of Crawford’s value is always a good thing when payroll is not a primary concern. While the contract is a bit absurd for a player who is good not great, Crawford fills two primary needs at leadoff hitter and Leftfield. Still, the move is shortsighted at best as there were good options available for significantly less money even if the Sox didn’t want to go the trade route. I just cant give this higher then a B and I think that is being fairly generous.
4. Jayson Werth – Washington Nationals – 7 years/126 Million
Really? Do we even need to discuss this? For a complimentary player, even one carrying a 900 average OPS the last two years and an average WAR of 4.6, this is more then a bit outlandish. In Washington he wont be surrounded by names like Howard, Utley, Rollins, Ibanez or anyone else most fans have heard of aside from Ryan Zimmerman. The only outfielders to ever get a bigger contract are Alfonso Soriano, Vernon Wells, Manny Ramirez and the aforementioned Carl Crawford. Thus far only Ramirez’s deal worked out while the others have proven to be a liability except for Crawford’s which is to be determined. Factor in the larger stadium, lack of lineup support and pressure to perform and I just cant see how this isn’t the worst contract of the offseason and one of the five worst in baseball. Werth isn’t a bad ballplayer or even a bad guy but just two years ago he was a bench player.
Verdict : If you have nothing nice to say, don’t say it. D-
5. Adam Dunn – Chicago White Sox - 4 years/56 Million
While his WAR is slightly less then some of the other players discussed, Dunn is a consistent OPS performer and solid bat in the middle of a lineup. His potential to hit the ball out of any park and high walk rate usually impact his teammates in a positive fashion. While his propensity to strike out a lot is a well known fact and he is a defensive liability, the market for 40 home run hitters was thinner then Calista Flockhart this offseason. Three things going in Dunn’s favor; he is going to a hitter friendly park in U.S. Cellular Field, his lineup support should be better then it was in Washington, and he will not be asked to play defense, except when giving Paul Konerko a rest or subbing in left field.
Verdict: While Dunn’s batting average will likely remain mediocre at best, he could very well see his home run totals and walk totals rise. B
6. Troy Tulowitzki – Colorado Rockies - 6 year/118 Million Extension
Shortstops are hard to find and the Rockies have a gem when he is healthy. While injuries are a concern, Papi Tulo has established himself as one of the most consistent sluggers at his position and has shown the ability to carry his team offensively for weeks at a time. He is a consistent defensive performer who also brings leadership to his team. It seems in line with what other players of his caliber have signed for while keeping Tulowitzki a Rockie for the majority of his playing career.
Verdict: With a WAR of 6.2 and an OPS of about 940 over the last 2 combined seasons, it’s a wise move to lock up Tulowitzki as he hasn’t even reached his prime yet. B+
7. Brewers acquire Zack Greinke – Milwakee Brewers – No contract extension
While Milwakee is not a perennial contender like say Boston or the Yankees, they at least have an actual team unlike the poor folks in Kansas City. Now they have a great 1-2 of Gallardo and Greinke and pitching was certainly a sore spot for them last year. They gave up good prospects to get Greinke, just one season removed from a Cy Young season but Greinke still has 2 years on his deal and has a good support in Milwakee. For the first time in his career he wont be the lone all-star on his team as Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun and Yovani Gallardo will have some say in that as well. The trade also sends a message to Brewer fans that they are really trying as Greinke’s contracts calls for 27 Million over the next two years. This could be an opportunity for Greinke to really flourish as he will be playing meaningful games late in to the season for a change.
Conversely for Kansas City, the trade could potentially make them better…in a couple of years. I like Lorenzo Cain’s speed and defense. He showed he could hit major league pitching in his call up last year. At 24 he should be ready to contribute regularly for a major league club. Alcides Escobar, immediately becomes the best shortstop the Royals have had in a long time. While he struggled at times with the bat, he was spectacular with the glove. Escobar has potential to be a good hitter but plate discipline and pitch selection are issues. Jake Odorizzi and Jeremy Jeffress also were included. Odorizzi was perhaps the Brewers top pitching prospect and should be ready to contribute in two years or so while Jeffress was solid in a short call up last year. Jeffress may be ready to help sooner then later. Both players are still very young and possess nice upside.
Verdict: From Milwakee’s perspective, this move rates well. You gave up players, that outside of Escobar, were not ready to help your team now while Prince Fielder is still there. This move has to rate as an A from their side as long as Greinke holds up his end of the bargain. For Kansas City, it was a good package they got back but the verdict is largely going to be based on future performances of young players. And while prospects are good for the payroll, they aren’t always good at performing. Still, they landed 4 potential contributors, which is a very respectable job, and worthy of a solid B with the potential for it to be come a higher grade down the road.
8. Victor Martinez – Detroit Tigers – 4 years/50 Million
A bold move by Mike Illitch to go and get the best hitter available in free agency will help an offense that outside of Miguel Cabrera and Magglio Ordonez (when healthy) struggles to perform consistently. While Martinez’s catching days are probably numbered, his bat is still working which means that we can still expect to see more 300-20 homer/100 rbi seasons with an OPS consistently in the 850-900 range. While the signing alone probably does not make the Tigers serious contenders, it does fill a glaring need for lineup support around Cabrera. It’s a fair contract for the first 2-3 years of the deal and could at any time go south if Martinez’s age becomes a factor sooner then later.
Verdict: I give it a B with downward potential. As long as Martinez stays healthy, the contract is fair for both sides and in line with players who perform on Martinez level. Since he is defensively challenged, the second he stops hitting at a high level, the worse the contract becomes.
9. Derek Jeter – New York Yankees – 3 years/51 Million (4th year player option)
While the Yankees have given Jeter plenty of cash over his career there would have been a public uprising had the team not resigned “El Capitan”. From a performance standpoint, Jeter is coming off his worst season. If he continues along that same path the contract may become more of a burden then expected. Personally, I tend to believe that Jeter will rebound. He has had a couple of seasons in his career that were not on par with the rest and each time rebounded nicely so despite his advanced age, I just don’t think its wise to bet against Derek Jeter. The guy has five World Series rings and has been a key reason his team has won each of them. You don’t bet against a player like that, especially when his lineup support is excellent at worst. A player of Jeter’s caliber understands the term accountability and I believe he is aware that his 2010 performance was below the standards he set for himself.
Verdict: Derek Jeter brings more to the table then raw stats but he cannot continue along the same path as he went down in 2010 and justify the contract given. I think he is aware of that and I expect he will revert back to his normal performance for at least another year or two. If he doesn’t though this has the potential to be a bad contract. B- for now with the potential to be a better or worse looking deal based on performance.
10. Braves Acquire Dan Uggla – Atlanta Braves – 5 years/61 Million (rumored)
Atlanta was sorely in need of a middle of the order bat and they got the first second baseman in history to have four straight thirty-homer seasons. Anyone who watches baseball knows Uggla was acquired for his bat not for his glove but he has gotten better in that respect in recent years. He brings with him respectable WAR and OPS numbers that show variance especially in OPS. The move solidifies Atlanta’s infield while giving them a big bat at a position that you don’t find many hitters at. Atlanta has in recent memory been a well coached team and while Bobby Cox isn’t there anymore, Fredi Gonzalez is a guy Uggla has played for before and performed under.
Verdict: It’s a solid move and Atlanta didn’t give up much to get it done. Tough to give this anything less then an A when you strengthen your own team and weaken a division rival in the process.