With the first overall pick in the 2011 MLB Draft, the Pirates have selected RHP Gerrit Cole out of UCLA. Safe choice? Surely. The best player in the draft? We all know that only time will tell with that question. Out of every draft in professional sports, the MLB’s selection process is by far the biggest crapshoot. With tons of variables-we’ve got high school kids 4 years away from the majors that have the most upside, guys that are bound for college unless they get BIG money-the development of a player can only be scouted and predicted to a certain extent.
But let’s get one thing straight. Gerrit Cole is not Steven Strasburg. He’s probably not going to see playing time in 2011, especially seeing that his agent is Scott Boras, and he won’t be signing anything that man can squeeze all the money he can out of the Pirates. My guess is around 10 million, given that he’s a college pitcher that is already fairly developed; nothing like Jameson Tallion’s high school arm that got him 6.5 million (For the record, the 19 year old has 7.1 strikeouts/9 innings in 8 starts so far this year).
For the Pirates, an organization that has struggled with #1 overall picks, Neil Huntington is praying to Babe Ruth Almighty that Cole isn’t anything like their 2002 pick Bryan Bullington, or even 1996 pick Kris Benson, remember him? Benson’s best record is for most sacrifice bunts in a game (4) by a pitcher in MLB history-well worth his then-record signing bonus of 2 million.
For Huntington, Cole is a proven pitcher that has three pitches that are major league material with a little development.
“You see the size, you see the strength, you see the competitor, you see the 100 mph fastball, the slider, the changeup that all can develop,” Huntington said to the MLB Network about his first-round prize possession.
The biggest problem with Cole is that his 2011 season was a complete disappointment compared to his 2010 performance. He went 6-8 with a 3.31 ERA, numbers that aren’t exactly dominant on the college level for an arm that is supposedly almost MLB-ready; he went 11-4 in 2010 with a slightly higher ERA of 3.37. So why the digression, and how did he get those numbers with a repertoire including a high-90’s fastball, stinging slider and a decent curve? There are so many variables to a pitcher’s in-game performances and situational pitching that scouts tend to look past that, and focus much more on Cole’s repertoire of pitches. That is, after all, what they get to work with-not UCLA’s roster or game management. Although some would also argue that Cole’s teammate Trevor Bauer gave the 2011 performance deserving of the first pick, Bauer’s repertoire doesn’t compare to Cole’s trio of pitches. Heck, even he fell to third overall, with the Mariners making Danny Hultzen the #2 pick.
The other common complaint about the Pirates’ selection is that Cole isn’t 3B slugger Anthony Rendon. Last year, Rendon was considered by far the top prospect in the draft, but his stock fell considerably due to repeated injuries to his ankle. Thankfully for the Pirates, five other teams passed on him as well, we can only assume for the same reason. Personally, I’m happy the Pirates took the player that balanced the most talent and least risk. Selecting Rendon would’ve been an audacious move, but the team simply can’t afford to waste a #1 overall pick on a player that could be injury prone, especially since they haven’t drafted a productive player with that pick since Jeff King in 1986. Another argument against Rendon is that he’s a position player, a talent that is much easier to acquire rather than draft. As I said in my piece on the Pirates’ current pitching, talented arms win you championships. The Phillies took note of the Giants’ championship rotation, and went out to compile what some consider is the best rotation in MLB history. This is a rotation that already has 6 complete games and 7 shutouts under its belt. Phenomenal pitching can win any game, regardless of the lineup you’re facing.
We could see much of the same on day two of the draft, seeing that last year the Pirates used 32 of their 50 picks on pitchers-I believe the term is “stockpiling.” Management will probably do its best to see if LHP Daniel Norris is signable, although he has claimed that he is destined for Clemson. Outfielder Josh Bell is by far the most talented left on the board, but he also sent a letter to MLB teams asking not to be drafted, as he will be attending UT in the fall. After that, the second round is even more of a crapshoot than the first. Balancing signability, team needs and available money, the draft at this point is full of tough decisions.
For now, Pirates fans can only dream of a playoff rotation that features Cole and Taillon. Last year’s 2nd round pick Stetson Allie wouldn’t be a bad closer, either. For the sake of Neil Huntington’s job, Pirates fans’ sanity and Bob Nutting’s wallet, we can only hope that Cole is as good under pressure as same-named Jay-Z protégé J. Cole professes: “Cole under pressure, what’s that make? Diamonds.” The Pirates are desperate to find treasure, after all.