The New York Mets are poised to become the darling team of the National League and they don’t even know it. It is hard to believe that a team with an approximate payroll of $138 Million can be called a “miracle” team, however, based on the trend the team has followed the last couple years it would be a miracle were they to even make a run at the playoffs. I have never seen such despair among a fan base as I do with the New York Mets entering the 2011 season when all the team really needs is average production from some of their star players. If Jason Bay, Carlos Beltran and Luis Castillo can put up average numbers by their standards the offensive output will increase by 12%. That equates to .48 more runs per game.
Here is how these numbers were reached:
The three man platoon of Jason Bay, Carlos Beltran and Jeff Francoeur totaled 112 runs and 128 RBI for two outfield positions. If you take the seasonal averages of Jason Bay and Carlos Beltran, the run production would increase to 178 runs and 180 RBI. If you also take in account the two man platoon of Luis Castillo and Alex Cora combined to score 42 runs at the second base position and trade that in for an average yearly production from just Castillo of 67 runs then that would increase the run total by another 15 runs. The total runs scored from those three positions would provide the team with an additional 79 runs. That would mean the total runs scored would increase from 4.05 runs per game to 4.53 runs per game.
If the pitching staff can pitch at the same level they did last year, yielding 4.02 runs per game then that would mean the team should improve their chances of winning by 12.7%. This number is conceived by taking the difference between the runs scored per game of 4.53 subtracted by the runs given up per game of 4.02 and then dividing that number of .51 by the runs scored per game by the opposition, again 4.02, to figure up a percentage of improvement of 12.69% over last year’s record. Last year the Mets had 79 wins, so if you improve that number by 12.69% the win total then becomes 89 games.
What does all this mean? All though it doesn’t guarantee them a shot to take down the almighty Phillies, it does put the Mets in contention for the wild-card spot. Last year the Braves secured the wild-card with a 91 win season. The Mets went 7-11 versus the Braves in 2010 and a 12% increase on that record would change that record to 8-10 and equal a win total of 89 for the Mets and a 90 win total for the Braves. Although it still gives the Braves a one game advantage when it comes down to the numbers, I’d like to say the loss of Bobby Cox as manager will cost the Braves at least a game or two in its own right. I’d also like to think the managerial transition between Jerry Manuel and Terry Collins is at worst a wash.
I understand that statistical analysis of a team’s production does not equal real wins and losses but it does give insight to a team’s chances. Based upon the offseason acquisitions and losses by other teams, I find it hard to leave the Mets out of the mix for the wild-card. The most improved team, in my mind, is the Milwaukee Brewers. Even with all their improvements, I find it hard to believe the Brewers have increased their win total buy 13 games over last year’s 77 win squad. The San Diego Padres, who won 90 games in 2010, have lost their top offensive weapon in Adrian Gonzalez so I really don’t see them playing at that level in 2011. I don’t think any other team in the National League has improved enough to significantly increase their win total based on numbers alone. That means the Mets should be considered when discussing playoff caliber teams in the National League.
The “miracle” for the Mets might be if the threesome of Bay, Beltran and Castillo can actually stay healthy for a whole season and if guys like R.A. Dickey can continue to perform at last year’s level. But if they do, the Mets could turn into the “miracle” team of 2011. The Mets could become the highest paid “miracle” team of all time but none the less will be regarded as a miracle in the eyes of their own fan base and the rest of baseball. I have already begun printing the shirts that say “Miracle Mets of 2011” and they can be purchased for $19.95 plus $3.95 S&H. I’m already counting my money.