John Lackey took a little flack the other day from Red Sox fans and Boston media for saying he’s only won more than 14 games once. This is in response to the lack luster performance in 2010 compared to the expectations.
After 2009 the Sox signed Lackey to a five year, $82.5 million deal. The reception was mixed but the expectations were high. At this salary most fans were expecting Lackey to insert as a solid #3 and hurl 16+ wins. Fans often weigh our expectations based on salary but in this case, like many others, are way off base.
It’s true, Lackey went only 14-11 last season posting a 4.40 ERA. The last time he won as many was in 2007 when he wet 19-9 with a 3.01 ERA. He has the ability to put up strong numbers but he is simply just not ace material when you look at his career numbers:
W 116 L 82 G 267 IP 1716 ERA 3.89 CG 14 SHO 8 SO 1357 BB 513 WHIP 1.32
Lackey is also historically bad against the AL East. Before joining the Sox he boasted a 5.25 career ERA against them. His career ERA against the Yanks is 4.43, and Toronto 4.48.
The fact of the matter is, Lackey is an average starting pitcher at this point who could put up solid numbers in the low/middle part of the rotation. Should Beckett or Dice-K bounce back strong that’s all he needs to be. My expectations for Lackey is to be nothing better than a very good #4. If he can pull his ERA down closer to his career number he should be fine in achieving that, if he doesn’t though, don’t be surprised.