Here is a breakdown of the rotation for the Orioles 2011 season. This breakdown will be totally subjective even though I am an Oriole fan. I would say this list is as of now and does not reflect any future changes but I don’t see any changes coming so here you go:

  1. Jeremy Guthrie- RHP- Age 31 in April- Guthrie should be the number two starter for this team but he has earned the right to start opening day. In 2010 he started off extremely slow in the first half (3-10 4.77 ERA) but was able to rebound big time in the second half (8-4 2.76 ERA). His ERA ended up settling at 3.83. That ERA would warrant 15 wins with the New York Yankees but it will only garner 10-12 wins with the Orioles. Jeremy has been extremely consistent since he joined the Orioles besides his terrible 2009 season, which I totally blame on a pay cut the Orioles gave him when renewing his contract that year. That is right, Guthrie made $770,000 for the 2008 season when he went 10-12 with a 3.63 ERA then the Orioles cut his pay to $650,000 for the 2009 season when they renewed his contract. Andy MacPhail said that brought his pay down to where it should have been with the service time he had put in, when really it was a 15% pay cut at the age of 30. Nobody hitting age 30 would like to take a 15% pay cut while doing a superb job, so I blame that season on the Orioles organization’s handling of the pay situation for their top pitcher. I am sure the Orioles will do their best to rake Jeremy over the coals in arbitration this year but he should still settle in at a pay of around $4.5 million. This pay will hopefully help Jeremy instill confidence in himself this year and pitch up to his abilities.

Prediction: 12-12 3.75 ERA 200 IP 125 K

  1. Brian Matusz- LHP- Age 24- Brian Matusz also had polar opposite splits last year. The first half he went 3-9 with a 4.77 ERA and in the second half he went 7-3 with a 3.63 ERA. Lots of people think Buck Showalter was the reason for the Orioles turnaround from August 1st on but maybe Buck’s success was the byproduct of Guthrie and Matusz finally putting things together. Matusz has top of the rotation stuff and he seems to have the demeanor to excel at this level. He is not afraid to challenge hitters and he has supreme confidence in his stuff. Those attributes can lead to a successful career at the major league level. I think Matusz is still one year away from being the ace that he can be but he should do extremely well in 2011 considering the low run support he will be provided. I assume the Orioles will be very careful with his pitch count over the length of a non-contending season so his decision total will be low compared to games started.

Prediction: 13-9 3.63 ERA 175 IP 160 K

  1. Brad Bergesen- RHP- Age 25- Brad Bergesen had major setbacks in 2010 all starting with a strained shoulder he incurred while shooting a commercial during the offseason. I believe Brad saw that the window of opportunity for a pitcher with his stuff is limited so he tried to just pitch through the pain. I guess the pain subsided after a couple of months since he went 5-3 from August through the end of the season. Bergesen isn’t going to strike out enough players to win games that way with a career 4.48 K/9 and he only has a career 1.02 ground ball to fly ball ratio. Bergesen lives off of changing speeds and location to keep hitters off balance. Wieters seems to be an average game caller so maybe the best guy in this rotation to have a “personal” catcher would be Bergesen. If the game is well called and Brad keeps the ball in the park, he can have some sort of success. I wouldn’t place any Cy Young bets but reasonable numbers are attainable.

Prediction: 10-12 4.15 ERA 195 IP 98 K

  1. Jake Arrieta- RHP- Age 25- Jake Arrieta really had an inconsistent debut in 2010 with results that disguised his difficulties. Arrieta finished 2010 with a respectable 6-6 record and a 4.66 ERA while posting a horrendous 1.53 WHIP and an uninspiring 1.08 SO/BB ratio. Arrieta will be given the chance to turn these trends around and pitch up to his capabilities. His control has become an issue for some reason and unless he fixes it he may become just an average major league pitcher. Maybe someday he will live up to his potential but for now we will temper our expectations. Jake will also be limited in his innings due to his age.

Prediction: 9-13 4.75 ERA 170 IP 115 K

  1. Rick VandenHurk-RHP- Age 26 in May- I don’t think the Orioles acquired VandenHurk to be a reliever, this is shown in his three starts at Norfolk (AAA) and his one start for the big league squad late in the season. It seems to me the Orioles have begun to sour on Chris Tillman as a starter and may want to move him to a relief role to see if he can get his control problems in check. As a byproduct of this move, VandenHurk will get first crack at the fifth spot in the rotation. He has had marginal success in eight seasons in the minors and shows decent potential at the major league level. Since he was born in the Netherlands, he may be a couple of years behind in development. So, although he will be 26 in 2011 it is more like he should be at age 23 from a developmental standpoint. This bodes well considering he averaged 8.5 K/9 over his minor league career. I don’t think he will become a star but I do think he can become a serviceable option in the fifth spot in the rotation.

Prediction: 10-14 4.25 ERA 170 IP 155 K

I am not sure if the success of the Orioles over the final two months of the season was a result of Buck Showalter coming on board or if it was a result of the starting pitching overcoming minor injuries and finally finding their groove. Either way there is some room for optimism in 2011 but not too much. As long as Guthrie throws 200 innings, Matusz stays confident in his stuff, Bergesen keeps the ball in the park, Arrieta get his control problems under wraps, and VandenHurk pitches effectively enough to keep the Orioles in games, then the rotation may become just below average. That would be a success considering all things but it would also be a stretch if any of these pitchers get hurt because depth is not a strong point in the organization. As with last year, the rotation will go through some rough spots but maybe they can at least form an identity of their own and make something to build upon.