Many Big 10 fans are calling this, “The Week Before the Week”. I like to think of it as “The Week of Possibilities”. Sure, there are clear-cut favorites in every game, but an upset or two is completely feasible. What it really comes down to is; can the underdogs perform like they did last week? Indiana gave Iowa a run for their money, and a dropped pass as time was winding down, cost them a victory. Northwestern and Penn State looked good in their matchup, and Purdue had a halftime lead over Wisconsin before they fell apart. Does this mean that an upset is eminent? Of course not! However, in the Big 10, anything is possible.
IOWA @ NORTHWESTERN
Last week I called Iowa, “the best 2 loss team in the country”. Subsequently, they played like the best team in the M.A.C. Understandably, Iowa was without one of the best running backs in the Big 10, but, Ricky Stanzi is at a point in his college career where he should be able to soundly beat an Indiana, even with an injured backfield. This week, they face a better team, however, I believe the result will be quite different. Look for Stanzi to have a nice comeback against a secondary that can/and has been easily exploited. Sources say that Adam Robinson has been practicing, and will play, which gives Stanzi that extra weapon that he so desperately needs. The Wildcats gave up 100+ yards to two different Penn State running backs last week, so, expect Robinson to have quite a bit of success on the ground. The defense, on the other hand, played a nice game against a potent Indiana attack, and I expect them to overpower a Wildcat offense that relies solely on the play of Dan Persa. At 14.3 points per game, Iowa has one of the elite defenses in the land, and will most likely capitalize on an offense that “can” be good, but lacks consistency. If Northwestern wants to win this game, the offense has to give Persa some help. As a quarterback, he leads the offense in rushing, and a large portion of his yards have come off of scrambles, not designed runs. Running back, Mike Trumpy, and the offensive line, need to step up their respective games in order to take some pressure off of Persa. This is quite a large task against an Iowa defensive front which has been called, “the best in the nation”. Persa, however, is not completely without weapons. Wideout, Jeremy Ebert, is putting together a phenomenal season (48rec-798yds-7tds), and will have to hook up with Persa a lot and often if the Wildcats want to stay in this game.
PREDICTION:
Getting Adam Robinson back is going to be a HUGE boost for Iowa, so, don’t expect their offense to be as inept as last week. I still believe they are the best 2 loss team in the nation, (even with an Alabama loss), so, I am taking Iowa minus 10 in this game.
INDIANA @ WISCONSIN
This game absolutely reeks of “upset”. Indiana, last week, took Iowa to the wire (and should’ve won), while Wisconsin looked absolutely terrible in the first half against Purdue (it should be noted that they did play well in the second half, and even managed to cover the spread). The biggest issue Indiana has going into this game is on the defensive side of the ball, and despite playing a nice game against Iowa, should get pushed around pretty easily by an absolutely massive Badger line. Simply put; they need an equalizer. Look for Indiana to completely sell out the run and force Scott Tolzien to win this one through the air. The question is this; can a complete run sellout by the Hoosiers stop the Badger rushing attack? Many say no, but I saw some positives against Iowa last week. The linebackers played quite well, and if they can play like that in Camp Randall, the game could be interesting. Tolzien doesn’t throw a ton, but I expect him to be up in the 30 attempt area against the Hoosiers, and should have a great deal of success. Badger wideouts, Lance Kendricks and Nick Toon, have been Tolzien’s go to guys, and should have no problem capitalizing on a weak Hoosier secondary. Even if running backs, John Clay and James White, are held in check, Bucky should still put up a decent number of points. So then, how does Indiana stay in this one? Simply put, AIR RAID! Indiana needs to do what they do best…pass the football. At 302 yards per game, the Hoosiers rank 11th in the land, and quarterback, Ben Chappell, is near the top of the Big 10 with 18 touchdown passes. They need to mix in a run here or there (just to throw the Badgers off), but look for a Texas Tech type attack on Saturday. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Chappell in the 50-60 attempt range. If they can put up a big number, they can stay with Wisconsin this weekend.
PREDICTION:
Vegas has Bucky minus 23 on Saturday. Honestly, I just don’t see it. Wisconsin is certainly capable of covering, but, Indiana is riding a bit of a wave into this game. I think Wisconsin wins, but not by 23.
MINNESOTA @ ILLINOIS
Oh dear, where do I begin? This season, Minnesota has been to football what 2 ½ Men has been to comedy…an absolute and utter abomination. Seriously, I don’t really know how else to put it. They have embarrassed themselves, and the Big 10, and they need to get it turned around…quickly. At 21.3 points per game the Gophers rank 97th in the country in scoring offense. It gets worse. At 33.8, the Gophers rank 104th in the country in defensive points against. If you cannot score, but you cannot stop others from scoring, well, that isn’t a solid recipe for success now is it? Things won’t be any different on Saturday. Illini quarterback, Nathan Scheelhaase, has taken his freshmen bumps this year, but a 14/25-211yd-3td game against Michigan last week can be a catalyst for his continuing improvement through the air. If there is a worse defense than Michigan, it’s Minnesota, so look for Scheelhaase to continue to grow this week. Illinois’ strength is in their ground game, and at just over 207 yards per game, the Illini rank in the top 20 in the nation. Running against the Gophers hasn’t been very problematic for, well, anyone this year, so, expect Illinois to carve out huge chunks of yardage on the ground. After giving up 67 to Michigan, Illinois’ defense has taken a bit of a hit statistically, but, ANYONE can give up 67 to Michigan, so don’t let that influence your opinion on this defense. They are still very, very, good. For Minnesota, there is a bit of a quarterback controversy (at least in my mind). I would argue that MarQueis Gray can bring more to the table, but, Aaron Weber is a 4 year starter, and at 1-9, is it really worth pulling him? I say yes. Give Grey, a sophomore, the reigns and let him see what he can do (or at the very least, split the time). Grey has been a serviceable wideout, but, he hasn’t really been given a chance at his natural position. I say it’s time!
PREDICTION:
Vegas says 17. I say 30. Illini win big.
MICHIGAN @ PURDUE
The Las Vegas website I use did not give a point spread for this game. After last week’s offensive explosion by the Wolverines, I can clearly see why. Michigan, coming of the game of the year, has continued to play well on one side of the ball. Quarterback, Denard Robinson, is, in my opinion, the best player in the nation (and it isn’t even close). If he could’ve stayed on the field consistently this season, he would be a shoe in for the Heisman. Unfortunately for him, injuries have derailed a season that is still going to be massively impressive, nonetheless. He leads the nation in rushing (1349yds) and averages almost 7.5 yards per carry. Denard isn’t all legs though. Robinson’s 160.9 quarterback rating is 4th in the Big 10, and he has only been sacked 3 times all year. “Shoelace” really has been a one man show for the Wolverines. Their defense, however, is usually their opponent’s best player. Michigan ranks 105th in the nation in points against, and really hasn’t been able to stop anyone (to include 1AA UMASS). That should change on Saturday as Purdue’s offensive is, in a word, inept. The Boilermakers are 111th in the nation in points for (17.6 per game), and their biggest offensive output was a 31 point showing against Western Illinois. In the last three weeks Purdue has scored 13, 10, and 0, respectively, and although they will manage to score against the Wolverines, it probably won’t be near enough. The Boilermakers have yet to find a quarterback they are truly comfortable with, and will most likely let Rob Marve and Rob Henry split time on Saturday. Marve has been the better passer, but not by much. Purdue will try to control the clock with a run game that has been decent, but if the Wolverines can get just a few stops, it won’t be close.
PREDICTION:
It all really depends on how bad Michigan’s defense is on Saturday. I mean, the Wolverines can win by 20, or they can win by 50. I think this is why Vegas wants no part of this game. Either way, Michigan wins big.
PENN STATE @ OHIO STATE
Ohio State is all but out of the national title picture, but there is still a small glimmer of hope. Having said that, they have to win games like this in a very convincing fashion, because let’s face it, the B.C.S. is nothing more than a dog and pony show. On paper, Ohio State is putting together as impressive a season as anyone in the land. They rank 7th in the country in points for (42 points per game), and 3rd in points against (13.6 points per game). Terrelle Pryor has been solid, and running back, Dan Herron, is coming into his own on the ground. Although the competition hasn’t been good, Ohio State has wins of 49-0 and 52-10 since their tragic loss in Madison 3 weeks ago. The team knows what is on the line, and I expect them to come out firing on Saturday. Expect a heavy dose of Herron and Brandon Saine, while Pryor continues to be efficient through the air. Wideout, Dane Sanzenbacher, is putting together an impressive season, and has become Pryor’s go to guy. He should be on the receiving end of plenty of passes this weekend. On the flip side; if Penn State wants to win this game, they need to do it on the back of Evan Royster. Although Royster hasn’t had the season he did last year, he is still a very dangerous back, and showed it against Northwestern last week. JoPa seems comfortable with quarterback, Matt McGloin, and his 4 touchdown/0 interception performance against the Wildcats, should lock him up as starter for the remainder of the season. His numbers won’t be as good against a very tough Buckeye D, but, he should play most of the game. State is coming off of a very emotional victory, and are looking to ride that wave into Columbus. However, Ohio State simply has too much firepower, and, I expect this one to be over going into the 4th.
PREDICTION:
I just don’t think Penn State has the horses to hang with the Buckeyes. They could keep it within the 17 point spread, but, I don’t expect them to. I have the Buckeyes by at least 20.