The SEC standings took an interesting twist on Saturday. Most people expected South Carolina to suffer their second defeat at the hands of Alabama, strengthening the Tide’s stranglehold on the SEC West. That would have been excellent news to Florida who was predicted to handle a floundering LSU squad at home. Instead, with LSU knocking off Florida in the Swamp, the pair of upsets put LSU and South Carolina in the driver’s seat for their respective divisions. While Alabama and Florida still control their own destinies within their divisions, their paths now have very little room for error.

While the SEC boasts only one matchup of top 25 teams this week, Kentucky’s near upset over Auburn proves that the depth of the SEC means upsets can come from unexpected places. Ole Miss had an extra week to prepare for Alabama, and Mississippi State, who has been impressive as of late, travels to Gainesville to take on the Gators. Kentucky will try a second time at a massive upset as they play host to South Carolina. Georgia tries to build off their win against Tennessee by hosting a Vanderbilt team that looks more and more competent every week. LSU gets the lone breather of the week as they host FCS opponent, McNeese State. The main event of the week is seventh ranked Auburn hosting twelfth ranked Arkansas.

McNeese State Cowboys at (9) LSU Tigers

The Tigers are a different animal with Jarrett Lee at quarterback. Jordon Jefferson, while a playmaker with highlight runs, is mistake prone when he actually has to put the ball in the air. With a talented running back like Stevan Ridley, the Tigers can afford to play the less mobile Lee behind center. It would appear Les Miles finally found this tidbit out against Florida. The LSU defense has been superb all year. They rank first in total defense in the SEC and fifth nationally. McNeese State isn’t good even by FCS standards. Regardless of who plays quarterback for the Tigers, LSU will win this one easily.

3-45, Tigers

Vanderbilt Commodores at Georgia Bulldogs

Georgia looked like a team worthy of the preseason hype of being an SEC East contender this past Saturday against Tennessee. Unfortunately, their poor performances through the first half of the season have all but ended their hopes of winning the division. At this point, the Bulldogs are fighting for bowl eligibility. The Commodores have looked like a formidable opponent all season long. They have some hard fought losses to future bowl teams that include LSU, Northwestern, and UConn under their belt. Their upset at Ole Miss by two touchdowns certainly raised some eyebrows. In this game, it looks like Georgia has finally put something together. They have more talent. They are playing at home. Freshman quarterback Aaron Murray is starting to emerge as a very good SEC quarterback. One has to assume that Georgia keeps the ball rolling.

17-31, Bulldogs

Mississippi Rebels at (8) Alabama Crimson Tide

There may not be another coach in the nation that pulls off just enough upsets to keep their job than Houston Nutt. He has made a career out of underachieving while leaving that glimmer of hope that keeps enough of the fan base and decision makers happy with surprise upsets. One might think this could be one of those upset wins for the Rebels. They are coming off a bye week and have had an extra week to prepare. Ole Miss leads the SEC in scoring offense with more than 37 points per game. They have a mobile quarterback that can be a nightmare for young defenses. Unfortunately for Ole Miss, the Crimson Tide is already coming off a loss. Nick Saban’s squad will be firing on all cylinders this Saturday. Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson will be playing with a chip on their shoulder after combining for only 64 yards rushing against the Gamecocks the week before. The Tide is ranked first in the SEC in scoring defense. They will be hungry and at home. They are simply a much better football team than Ole Miss and will make a statement.

14-42, Crimson Tide

(10) South Carolina Gamecocks at Kentucky Wildcats – Upset Alert –

South Carolina shocked the nation with their upset win over Alabama. The shock did not come from the fact that South Carolina won the football game as much as it did from the fact that South Carolina dominated the football game. South Carolina was balanced and efficient on offense. Their defense shut Alabama down. Kentucky, meanwhile, nearly pulled off an upset that would have been just as stunning. The Auburn Tigers needed a field goal to beat the Wildcats as time expired. This was the same Auburn Tiger team that beat South Carolina in a fairly convincing fashion earlier in the year. With Derrick Locke and Randall Cobb, Kentucky has two of the most versatile offensive players in the SEC. With playmakers like Locke and Cobb, combined with the Gamecocks riding into a road game with an emotional high after a huge win against Alabama, the recipe is there for an upset. I’m not certain it will be enough as the Gamecocks run the football very well, and defending the run has been the Achilles heel for Kentucky all year. I think the Wildcats are in this one until the last with a chance to win, but the Gamecocks do just enough to pull it out.

24-21, Gamecocks

Mississippi State Bulldogs at (22) Florida Gators

The Bulldogs rank ahead of the Gators in both scoring offense and scoring defense. Who would have predicted that going into the seventh week of the season? The Bulldogs have had an orgy of offense the last two games, piling up over 1100 yards. The Gators, on the other hand, have looked remarkably average. Maybe worse than average. Alabama throttled the Gators two weeks ago, and most recently, LSU put forth their best offensive performance of the year. It does leave some doubt as to whether or not Urban Meyer will be able to hold back his protégé, Dan Mullen, from scoring points by the bushel. This game is in Florida, and it’s a night game. Florida plays very well at home, despite the latest outing against LSU. Florida is still more talented and their losses have come to two top 10 teams. Mississippi State’s ability to run the football and play solid defense helps to keep this one close, but the Gators win this one to right the ship.

24-27, Gators

SEC Main Event

(12) Arkansas Razorbacks at (7) Auburn Tigers

Suddenly, this football game takes on some serious importance outside of just being two top ranked teams. With Alabama’s loss, the SEC West looks to be a free for all with the Hogs back in the race. Auburn, of course, was never out of it as they remain undefeated. LSU still looms as a fourth team with the talent and the record to make a run for the SEC West title, so jumbled division standings might be inevitable. Auburn, LSU, and Alabama have not had the pleasure of facing each other. Alabama’s victory over the Hogs put a damper on things in Fayetteville, but with the Tide’s loss to South Carolina, the Razorbacks have reason to be optimistic. If they win out, the worst they can do is share the SEC West crown. Of the four teams, the Razorbacks are the only team that does not control their own destiny to represent the West in Atlanta. The winner of this game probably has the inside track to a BCS bowl should Alabama win out and get that trip to Atlanta. That is how important this game is. There are BCS and conference title consequences on the line.

The Auburn Tigers have been the media darling of the SEC. They have an exciting quarterback that can make plays with his arm and is extremely dangerous as a runner. Auburn has some modern tradition that people remember. They have recruited very well, and to this point, Gene Chizik’s squad has not disappointed. They are undefeated (6-0) and with a victory over South Carolina under their belt, they have a quality win.

The Tigers offensively have been extremely impressive. Auburn leads the SEC in total offense with 483 yards per game. They average over 35 points per game. Their ability to gain yards on the ground is second to none in the conference with over 276 yards per contest. Auburn is in the middle of the pack in passing offense, but Cam Newton leads the SEC in passing efficiency and ranks behind only Kellen Moore of Boise State nationally. As good as Newton has been passing, he leads the SEC in rushing.

Other than Cam Newton, the Tigers struggle to find playmakers. Onterio McCalebb and the freshman Michael Dyer provide quality runners, but are not dynamic, breakaway threats. Dyer, the starting running back, has only one carry of more than 25 yards this season. Darvin Adams is the leading receiver in yards and receptions, but only has two touchdowns to his credit this season. Auburn goes as Cam Newton goes. To this point, defenses haven’t found a way to contain Cam Newton.

And it’s a good thing for Auburn. The Auburn defense is not stellar. The Tigers rank last among the SEC West contenders in total defense and tenth in the conference in pass defense. The Tigers are tied for third most rushing touchdowns allowed among SEC teams. Perhaps the biggest sign that Auburn’s defense isn’t championship quality is the number of first downs they give up per game- a whopping 21.5. That is dead last in the SEC. And all of this is against the softest schedule to date of any SEC West team.

The saving grace for Auburn’s defense is that they are stingy in giving up rushing yards. Opponents are averaging less than 100 yards per game on the ground. The defensive front does get after the quarterback, and the Tigers rank fourth in the conference in sacks. Auburn is led defensively by Nick Fairley. Fairley has racked up five sacks and leads the SEC in tackles for loss with 12.5.

Defense has not been a problem for the Razorbacks. The experts lauded the Razorback offense before the season started, but questioned the defense that had finished last in the SEC the year before. So far, the questions have been answered with an exclamation point. The Hogs rank second in scoring defense in the SEC and thirteenth nationally as they only surrender 15 points per game. The Hogs are a top 20 defense nationally in total defense as opponents average 302 yards of offense per contest. Arkansas has applied pressure this year, sacking opposing quarterbacks 17 times. Arkansas has been good, but not great in run defense. They have excelled in defending the pass. The Razorbacks rank third in the conference in pass efficiency defense, and opposing offenses have only passed for 167 yards per game.

The Hogs have playmakers at every level. Jake Bequette anchors the defensive line. Anthony Leon and Jerry Franklin have been solid at linebacker. Tramain Thomas continues to come up big in the secondary.

For the Razorbacks, the defensive improvement couldn’t have come at a better time. The Razorbacks have accumulated very impressive numbers in terms of yards, but putting the ball in the end zone has been more difficult than expected. Arkansas ranks second in the conference, behind Auburn, in total offense. Despite averaging almost 500 yards per game in offense, the Hogs only manage 30 points per game, eighth in the conference.

The biggest concern for the Hogs has been untimely turnovers and penalties. Arkansas has turned the ball over more than eight teams in the SEC. They are the most penalized team in the SEC. Their own mistakes are the culprit to missing points on the scoreboard.

If the Hogs can minimize drive killing mistakes, their top ranked passing offense matches up extremely well against Auburn. The Razorbacks know they can get back into the SEC West mix with a win on the road at Auburn. Ryan Mallett can get back into the Heisman discussion with a big game on national television. Mallett and the Razorbacks will have plenty of opportunities for big plays in the passing game against this Auburn defense.

Whether or not Auburn has opportunities for Cam Newton to make big plays remains to be seen. Arkansas will provide the best defense that Auburn will have seen this year, and the Hogs looked very solid against Cam Newton Lite last week against Texas A&M’s Jerrod Johnson. Cam Newton is a different animal, and the Razorback defense will be tested by a quarterback in ways they have yet to be tested. Auburn would like to see this turn into a Cam Newton versus Ryan Mallett shootout. Newton has come up big for them in the past in situations such as that.

When the final buzzer sounds, the matchup favors Arkansas. They ran the ball better last week, and their passing attack is the best in the SEC. Arkansas and Auburn both were deficient on defense last year and rode on the tails of their offense. This year, it would seem that Arkansas’ defense has done some catching up while Auburn’s still has a ways to go. This looks like a game where Auburn could get exposed. After the loss to Alabama, the Hogs need a statement win. This might be it.

38-28, Arkansas