This week’s slate of games in the SEC has some great matchups both in and out of conference. There are some potential upset games as well as the opportunity for the SEC to assert its continued dominance against the other conferences around the nation. Ole Miss can try to regain a little bit of pride by beating a tough Fresno State team. LSU can carry the SEC banner by beating a ranked West Virginia team from the Big East.
Inside the conference, the divisional standings will really shape up. The SEC West could be decided on Saturday as the winner of the Arkansas vs. Alabama game features two top 10 teams. The winner would essentially have a two game lead over the loser because of the head to head tiebreaker. South Carolina and Auburn face off in the other SEC matchup that pits two ranked teams against each other. Both are considered contenders for their divisional titles. Florida faces their toughest test when they host Kentucky in the biggest upset alert game of the week. Georgia tries not to go to 0-3 in the conference as they travel to Mississippi State to face the other Bulldogs of the conference as well as the cowbells.
University of Alabama Birmingham Blazers AT Tennessee Volunteers
The University of Tennessee is a tough team to get a good grasp of. They looked like a real contender in the first half against Oregon, but were completely blown out and shut out in the second half. Tennessee looked good at times against the Florida Gators, but rather inept at others. It begs the question, which UT team is the real deal? Can they be solid for four quarters? The Vols have played one team that was inferior competition and handled their business accordingly. The Blazers are inferior competition and I expect the Vols will put up four quarters of solid football. Vols win this one, pulling away.
14-34 Vols
Kentucky Wildcats AT (9) Florida Gators – UPSET ALERT! –
The Gators better not be looking one week ahead to playing Alabama. The Kentucky offense has been a buzz saw early this year. They average more than 44 points per game and more than 240 yards rushing per contest. Their defense has been solid against the pass, but rather soft against the run. Florida’s offense, on the other hand, has been spotty at best even against inferior opponents. Running back Jeff Demps is their most viable option for big plays and will be needed for the Gators this week. Luckily for the Gators, their defense has more than made up the slack. They have forced 12 turnovers already this season, easily first in the SEC and tied for the most in the nation. Kentucky, on the other hand, has yet to turn the ball over via fumble or interception, the only SEC team to have that claim. If Kentucky protects the football and can be disruptive enough to keep Gator quarterback John Brantley from having a breakthrough performance, Kentucky could well walk out of Gainesville with their first win in the last 24 tries against the Gators. Law of averages says Kentucky wins one…right?
27-24 Wildcats
Fresno State Bulldogs AT Mississippi Rebels
Inexplicably, The Ole Miss Rebels are favored by the Vegas betting lines by 2.5 points. The Bulldogs from Fresno State have already beaten Cincinnati and a Utah State squad which played Oklahoma extremely close. Ole Miss already lost to Jacksonville State and Vanderbilt, and both losses were at home. The Rebels have yet to produce a game where they were truly balanced on offense, and their defense has surrendered 30 points a game. The latest comments from Houston Nutt leave people wondering if Jeremiah Masoli will be the latest quarterback victim in a long line of field general casualties in Nutt’s history. Fresno has looked too impressive and Ole Miss too horrible to pick the SEC squad in this one.
38-28 Bulldogs
Georgia Bulldogs AT Mississippi State Bulldogs
Which dog has more bite? My guess is that the team with the most to lose will come out swinging. That is without question the Bulldogs from Athens, Georgia. The truth is that this Georgia team is still pretty good. They showed the ability to make some plays in the passing game even without A.J. Green against Arkansas. They showed toughness as they fought back from being down two touchdowns to tie the ballgame. Most importantly as it pertains to this game against Mississippi State, Georgia looked very solid in stuffing the run. Mississippi State might be the worst passing offense in the SEC. If Georgia can take away the run, they should shut the Mississippi State offense down. On the road in the SEC, special teams are crucial, and Georgia’s special teams are very, very good.
30-17 Georgia Bulldogs
(22) West Virginia Mountaineers AT (15) LSU Tigers
Let’s not beat around the bush. LSU’s offense is not very good. They have less than 1000 yards total offense through three games. LSU’s strong suit the last couple of years has not been their ability to put the ball in the end zone. They have lived and died off the strength of their defense. And boy, is their defense good again this year. The Tigers are playing superb defense and causing turnovers. Their running game is effective enough to make them a formidable football team. West Virginia is a bit more balanced. Quarterback Geno Smith and running back Noel Devine have both started the year strong, and their ability to move the chains has helped the Mountaineer defense play very well in the early going. LSU is still more talented position for position, and the Tiger defense is the more dominating of the two. Add in that it’s a night game at Death Valley, and the Tigers have to be the favorites to win this game.
14-20 Tigers
SEC Co-Main Event
(12) South Carolina Gamecocks AT (17) Auburn Tigers
This is a pivotal game for both teams if they want to stay at the top of their divisions in the SEC. While both teams would still control their own destiny to win their respective divisions if they lose, Auburn would have to win out to have any chance of winning the SEC West, and South Carolina still has Arkansas and a trip to Gainesville on their slate.
The Auburn Tigers lead the SEC in passing efficiency. Despite this, the Auburn Tigers have passed the ball less than any other team in the SEC. Gus Malzahn, the Auburn offensive coordinator, has relied on the Auburn running backs and Cam Newton’s ability to make plays with his legs on run-pass options. Newton has been impressive so far with solid outings in all three games, but has yet to have a true breakout game against tough competition. Last week against Clemson, Newton only completed 7 of 14 passes with two interceptions. He did throw two touchdowns to help offset the picks, but the Clemson defense is not as strong as the South Carolina defense will be this Saturday. Auburn will continue to run to set up the pass. Unfortunately, they will be playing into the strength of a very good Gamecock defense.
South Carolina has a very balanced attack and it starts with the running game. Marcus Lattimore has been the SEC’s top freshman this year playing running back for the Gamecocks. After watching Clemson slash big runs against the Auburn defense, I expect Marcus Lattimore to have another big game for South Carolina. In addition, Stephen Garcia can make big plays when the running game is working well. The weakness of the Auburn defense is their pass defense. South Carolina could put up big offensive numbers, especially if Lattimore gets going early. I suspect he will.
31-17 Gamecocks
SEC Main Event
(1) Alabama AT (10) Arkansas
The Crimson Tide has earned the mantle of being considered the best team in college football. Bama has faced one significant test this year in Penn State. They took the Nittany Lions apart one play at a time, and they did it without their best player, Mark Ingram. His reemergence last week after being held out the first two weeks due to injury proved that he is every bit the player that won the Heisman trophy last year. Alabama running backs are averaging almost 7 yards per carry. Alabama is throwing the ball a bit more this year, and the balance has created a more potent offense. Tide quarterback Greg McElroy is completing passes at more than a 70% clip. He’s thrown seven touchdowns to only one interception. Statistically, Alabama leads the SEC in total offense and points per game. Even still, it is the Bama defense that has gotten most of the press.
Alabama replaced almost their entire defense and did replace their entire secondary. Despite the wholesale changes, the Crimson Tide defense is still a brick wall. They are giving up just over 250 yards of offense per game and not even seven points per game. The Tide held Penn State to just a field goal in a game that could have been much uglier than it ended up being.
The Razorbacks are a team that some still question. With Georgia starting 0-2 in the SEC, there seems to be some uncertainty about the legitimacy of the Arkansas Razorbacks. That is understandable, but the numbers seem to indicate that the Hogs are the real deal. The Hogs boast the best vertical passing game in the nation. Their offensive line, despite more than 100 passing attempts, has only given up four sacks in three games. The Hogs use the short passing game and screens as an extension of their running game very effectively. Few people argue that Hog signal caller Ryan Mallett is the best quarterback in the SEC, if not the entire nation. Perhaps no team in the nation can boast more weapons for a quarterback to throw to than the Razorbacks. Greg Childs, Joe Adams, and tight end D.J. Williams are all ranked in the SEC’s top five for receptions. Adams leads the league in receiving yards per game, and Childs leads the SEC in touchdown catches. The Hogs can score.
The question mark surrounding the Hogs was defense. The Razorbacks are right behind the Crimson Tide in most statistical categories. Arkansas is tied for second in scoring defense, giving up only 11 points per game. The Hogs are second in total defense- only two yards behind Alabama. The Hogs defense has improved dramatically from last year. Currently, they are ranked tenth nationally in total defense. That’s one position behind the Crimson Tide.
More so than any other game on the SEC slate, this game will be determined in the trenches. If the Arkansas offensive line provides time for Ryan Mallett, he will get his yards and his touchdown passes. If the Arkansas defensive line gets blown off the ball, Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson will have big days running the football. Arkansas should be able to protect Ryan Mallett. The Hogs have only given up four sacks this year, and Bama is last in the league at getting to the quarterback with just two sacks to their credit. The Hogs lead the SEC in that statistic with twelve. These two teams are much more evenly matched than most people think. In a close game in the SEC, it is usually best to pick the winner based on who has the best quarterback and home field advantage. The Hogs have both.
30-34 Razorbacks
