I. The Past
The story of Boise State, effectively, begins in 2004. Many people forget that before bowls, Boise State was undefeated (along with USC, OU, Utah and Auburn). 2004 was a completely different era of the BCS, and no non-BCS teams had been invited to a BCS bowl. This changed in 2004, however Boise was not the catalyst of change: Utah was. Further, Boise lost their bowl game to Louisville (at the time a candidate as “BCS buster,” having lost only once, at Miami when that meant something, after their starting QB went down to injury).
With almost all of the media attention shed on the controversy of Auburn being left out of the championship game, and what little remaining attention focused on Utah winning their BCS and Vince Young’s Rose Bowl performance, Boise was a complete afterthought. Boise followed up this season with a 2005 year which kicked off in Athens, Georgia. On this fateful day, Georgia…had their way with the boys in blue. With approximately 11 minutes left in the third quarter, UGA was up 38-0. The star of the Broncos, Jared Zabransky, was benched after throwing 4 interceptions (he later had to undergo psychological counseling due to the beating he took in this game…literally). They finished the season 9-4 after losing to Boston College in their bowl game. Georgia played another part in this tale in 2005, finishing the year losing to upstart West Virginia (a BCS conference champion, but seen by the average fan as non-factor in the big picture, thus associating them with the likes of Utah, Boise State, and Hawaii).
Then 2006 happened. Boise ran through the WAC with a 12-0 regular season record and conference title. With the new rules of the BCS, along with the national sympathy gained by Utah and West Virginia, Boise was granted a berth in the BCS. They faced the historic program and BCS conference champion Oklahoma (more on this squad in a bit). In a game that in many ways mirrored the Sugar Bowl following the 2005 season, BSU squeezed every trick out of their playbook to win the game. We all know the story: the hook and lateral to set up the tying score at the end of regulation. OU roaring back and scoring first in OT. BSU scoring, going for 2, and then the fateful statue of liberty play to win the game. Ian Johnson proposed to his cheerleader girlfriend after scoring the game-winning touchdown. Pure Disney bullsh…magic.
The nation fell in love with the team and the program after the theatrics of this game. With 1-loss Florida claiming the national title over Ohio State, many began the arguments that Boise State should be named national champion (this argument did not begin until the loss disparity occurred. In 2004 and 2005 there was no loss-disparity between the Cinderella and the national champion). The national pundits kept up this ruse, with the AP ranking BSU at #5 in its final poll (with BSU receiving 1 first place vote no less). This momentum did not carry into 2007, as Boise barely scraped into the AP’s preseason top 25 (#24, 1 spot ahead of soon to be Sugar Bowl-bound Hawaii). 2007 was a mediocre year for the program, ending 10-2 without a conference title (which was won by the aforementioned Hawaii, who was the Cinderella of 2007). Boise’s athletic disadvantages were felt in their bowl game, with the Chris Johnson-led East Carolina winning 42-38. Even with a 2-loss national champion, the Cinderella entitlements were not echoed in the discussion over the champion after the 2007 season.
2008 was a strange year for the elite of the non-BCS. Boise entered the year unranked, but by the end of the year, two non-BCS teams ended the season undefeated. The new BCS required only a single invitation, and the superior resume of the Utes pushed them into the BCS (where they went to beat Alabama). Boise squared off against another elite Cinderella (2-loss TCU) in its bowl, and BSU lost yet another non-BCS bowl.
With the national champion (Florida) having 1-loss, there were even more arguments for the Cinderella being the national champion. However, most, even in the national media, referenced the 2006 BSU squad (and not the 2004 Utah squad) as the architect of the argument. It is a curious, yet very important note to make. Utah was the first non-BCS program to win a BCS bowl, not Boise. Utah was the first non-BCS program to win 2 BCS bowls, not Boise. However, even after the Ute upset over the 1-loss Alabama team, Boise was still being used as the argument in the face of this victory.
And then we come to 2009: the similar story, supersized. 2009 saw the first bowl season with 2, non-BCS schools invited to participate. 2009 saw the first BCS bowl which involved 2 non-BCS schools. The season began with Boise ranked 14th in the AP preseason poll and an early win over highly-ranked Oregon. The season ended with a very boring BCS game. Boise State pulled off a late victory over TCU, avenging their loss in the previous year’s bowl. In true Boise fashion, this late rally was secured with another trick play (a fake punt). The national media took their lowest common denominator arguments to the next level, with some arguing that Boise State should be recognized over an undefeated BCS team who had just won the national championship (beating another undefeated BCS team).
And with the scene set, Boise State enters the 2010 season at 5 in the USA Today/Coaches’ Poll. Typically, Boise would begin the year in the 15-30 range, which was a counterweight to the extremely easy schedule Boise would face during the season. If BSU performed well in their second-rate schedule, they would end the year in the top-10 (with a good chance of a BCS bowl). Now, BSU has been given the preseason benefit of the doubt, with a real threat that a 1-loss Boise squad may be forced into a BCS bowl. With the history of Boise presented, the question must be asked: does Boise State deserve this much love? And if they do not, then why are they receiving it?
II. The Program
Before analyzing the 2004-2009 seasons of Boise State, I feel that a generic discussion of the program itself should be given. For those who only see Boise when they make the BCS, I feel some general explanations of their program should be given.
Talent: Boise State is not what anybody would call a recruiting power. BSU’s recruiting is anything but elite. Following the 2004 season, here are the Rivals’ rankings of the BSU recruiting classes:
• 2005: 64
• 2006: 70
• 2007: 68 (this is the recruiting class after the OU victory)
• 2008: 89
• 2009: 72
• 2010: 82
Now many will argue that the “results on the field speak for themselves,” as the indictment of recruiting rankings, however this argument is not as strong as you would believe. Here is a listing of the “first day” (first 3 rounds) NFL draft picks BSU has produced since 2004 (all information from the various Wikipedia pages for each draft):
• 2005: 0 (none drafted at all)
• 2006: 1 (Daryn Colledge, #47 overall – only Bronco drafted)
• 2007: 1 (Gerald Alexander, #61 overall – 4 Broncos drafted overall)
• 2008: 1 (Ryan Clady, #12 overall – 2 Broncos drafted overall)
• 2009: 0 (none drafted at all)
• 2010: 1 (Kyle Wilson, #29 overall – only Bronco drafted)
The NFL does not discriminate against particular teams or conferences. If the NFL deems you good enough, you will be drafted. This information shows that BSU does not have anywhere close to elite talent. Less than 1 player drafted in the first 3 rounds on average, and an average of 1.33 players per draft.
With the talent disparity, one has to ask how the team can perform at a high level against more highly-talented teams. The style of the team and the coaching staff are the answers to this question. There is a typical pattern BSU follows during the season, and this pattern is a result of the style of play.
Coaching Staff: Boise State is led by Chris Peterson, who has been with the program since 2001. Prior to being promoted to head coach in 2006, Peterson was the offensive coordinator for the Broncos. This continuity was paramount in sustaining the success of this offensive-led team through the departure of Dan Hawkins (who built this program to its current heights).
Bryan Harsin is the current offensive coordinator, and he has been a coach on the team since 2001 (when he was a graduate assistant). Assistant head coach Brent Pease has been with the program since Peterson took over in 2006. Offensive line coach Chris Strausser has coached in Boise in 2 separate stretches. Initially he coached from 2001-2005 as offensive line coach, and he returned in 2007 to perform the same role. There has been a single offensive system from 2001 until the present day, guided by Peterson. There has been minimal turnaround at the top as well. This continuity at the offensive coaching positions has been crucial in the development of the subpar talent BSU recruits.
Style: Speed is the name of the game, and size is seen as passé. BSU scans the west (namely its home of Idaho and the talent-rich California) for smaller positional players who do not have the body types for BCS ball who are quick and fast. And being in the WAC (and playing most of its schedule against WAC teams), BSU essentially needs to have elite WAC speed.
Kyle Wilson was a first round draft pick in the 2010 NFL draft, and he fits this pattern very well. Wilson plays a position which does not require size, and at 5-10 he is still a “small” cornerback. Another good example of the Boise style is Ian Johnson (yes, the guy who proposed to his girlfriend after beating Oklahoma). After 2006, Johnson was hyped as a Heisman dark horse and “potential first round draft pick” by those “journalists” who wanted to continue the Cinderella story. Where was Johnson drafted? He wasn’t. He was not big enough to handle the running load in the WAC, suffering injury after injury in his final 2 years. He weighed in at a very small 212 lbs at the NFL combine, and was simply not big enough to be a starting running back in the NFL.
In the trenches, Boise State has shown an adept eye at recruiting offensive lineman. Like with its positional players, these OL are typically small, quick, and explosive. With the system and coaching stability the program offers, recruits are allowed to grow into their positions on the line. This is a crucial stepping stone when development and coaching (as compared to talent) are paramount.
What does this all mean, and why is it important? With size being deemphasized, and elite speed for the WAC taking precedence, BSU is a small, explosive team almost across the board. Why does this matter? Over the course of a season, BSU will wear down a great deal. At the poles of a season, however, BSU will be a different team. When given an offseason to recover or a 4-5 week period of no games, BSU is a completely different team than in a 5- week stretch of game after game. Where has Boise made its mark? At the poles of each season. We do not have much evidence of how Boise would perform against top-level teams towards the end of their season while worn down. Also when we factor in the weak talent and size Boise faces week in, week out, we can only speculate on the exponential effects of playing in a conference like the SEC or Big 12.
III. The Past: Revisited
The pundits and the “average joe” they pander to will tell you how impressive Boise State has been against the “big boys” during their history (and I implore you to listen to their arguments, as most don’t even bring up the 2004 BSU squad which I graciously included). I have provided the mostly unbiased, factual history of Boise from 2004 onward, however it is important to look at their accomplishments in more detail to fully put these in perspective.
Bowl Performances: Here is a year-by-year breakdown of how BSU has performed in bowl games from 2004 onward.
• 2004: Liberty Bowl, Loss to UL (44-40)
• 2005: MPC Bowl; Loss to BC (27-21)
• 2006: Fiesta Bowl; Victory over OU (43-42 in OT)
• 2007: Hawaii Bowl; Loss to ECU(41-38)
• 2008: Poinsetta Bowl; Loss to TCU (17-16)
• 2009: Fiesta Bowl; Victory over TCU (17-10)
Boise’s overall bowl record in this time span is 2-4. Let me repeat this: Boise’s overall bowl record since 2004 is 2-4. And somehow OU and OSU have been labeled “chokers” over this time period (while both have made multiple national title games against the respective #1 teams in the nation). Since 2004, BSU has beaten 1 BCS team in a bowl (OU in 2006). Since 2004, BSU has lost to 3 non-BCS teams (UL in 2004, ECU in 2007, and TCU in 2008).
BCS Record from 2004: Here is a year-by-year analysis of BSU vs. BCS teams. I am including the record for the year, and weeks of victories below:
• 2004: 1-0 (Week 2)
• 2005: 0-3 (Week 1, 2, and bowl game)
• 2006: 2-0 (Week 1, bowl game)
• 2007: 0-1 (Week 2)
• 2008: 1-0 (Week 3…I must add that BSU only won b/c dirty play took out Masoli)
• 2009: 1-0 (Week 1)
So the mighty Boise State Broncos have accumulated an awe-inspiring 5-4 record against BCS teams from 2004 onward. The past 3 seasons, BSU has played 1 BCS team in its regular season, all located in the confines of the Pacific Northwest. Boise has not travelled east to play a BCS opponent since UGA slaughtered them in 2005 (they make their return this year against VT). One can blame the lack of BCS opponents in bowls, however with a 2-4 record in bowls since 2004, I don’t think this would help their record against the BCS.
Boise has recently hired a PR firm and immediately started playing the “nobody wants to play us” card. However, in response Nebraska publicly stated that they offered a reasonable 2:1 deal to BSU, which BSU refused. Other WAC teams have had little problem scheduling BCS opponents (Fresno State being the biggest example), and if you look at the schedules of Utah and BYU over the past 5 seasons, you will see many BCS opponents played gasp out of their region.
The “scheduling” angle is one great example (which I will touch on in the next article) of Boise wanting its cake and eating it too. They want the public support of the “little man” program, but they refuse to schedule like the big boys. Most major programs pay up to $1M to secure a solid BCS opponent in a home game. Boise refuses. Boise also has refused at least 1, 2:1 deal with a BCS program. The Broncos need to make up their mind as to what level of program they really are.
2006 Oklahoma: And finally, the 2006 Fiesta Bowl. The Boise State Broncos made their mark on American culture on January 1, 2007 in the Fiesta Bowl. America had already forgotten about the exploits of Utah only 2 years prior, and a “David vs. Goliath” match was on the national stage. The theatrics of this game are now legendary in college football lore, and I honestly believe most Americans will continue to refer to this game alone subconsciously when defending the place of the non-BCS onward. Theatrics aside, and, well, game aside, we need to look at BSU’s opponent in this game.
2006 Oklahoma was the first team past Bomar-gate. Rhett Bomar was the talented, soon to be sophomore who had led OU through a rocky transition period post-Jason White. He was kicked off the 2006 OU squad for his “employment” with a Norman automobile dealership. Where did this leave Oklahoma? Relying on a converted wide receiver (who the then inconsistent freshman Bomar unseated early in 2005) in Paul Thompson, OU had a rocky road through the first half of 2006.
Oklahoma lost 2 of its first 5 games (to Oregon and Texas), struggling to a 7-2 record in the Big12 prior to the final quarter of the season. During this time, Oklahoma lost its best player (and possibly the nation’s best player), Adrian Peterson, to a broken collar bone. The injury happened in garbage time against Iowa State on October 14. Most everyone wrote off the Sooners at this point in the season.
Everything changed on November 11, 2006. On this night UT’s super freshman Colt McCoy injured his throwing shoulder against Kansas State, leading to a Texas loss in Manhattan. Oklahoma squeezed out a win on this day against Texas Tech. After beating Baylor on November 18, Texas and OU both had 2 losses (1 conference loss, and 1 non-conference loss) with UT having the edge to the conference title game (due to beating Oklahoma before).
Texas and Oklahoma both had 1 remaining game. Both had to play their hated in-state rivals (Oklahoma State and Texas A&M respectively) to finish out their regular seasons. Colt McCoy was not 100% during the Texas-Texas A&M game, and Texas lost. Oklahoma squeezed out a 27-21 victory over the Cowboys, propelling them to the Big12 South title and shot in the Big12 title game against a weak Nebraska side. While both teams suffered injuries to their star players, OU had to replace a running back, while Texas had to replace a quarterback. Due to this lucky bounce, Oklahoma slid into the Big12 title game with back-to-back UT losses. This cannot be stated strongly enough.
OU entered its game against a well-rested Boise State squad with a less than 100% Adrian Peterson in what would be his last game as a Sooner. AD was not in rhythm, and the wide receiver playing QB had his typical meltdown early, putting the Sooners down early. Eventually OU came back, only to lose to the Spielberg-esque theatrics of the Broncos. Let me rephrase the matchup: the one notable victory of the BSU era came against a team with a wide receiver playing quarterback and its less than 100% star player being forced into the action, who only made the BCS because the top team in its conference sustained an injury to its starting quarterback. This opponent was the “mighty” Oklahoma team that Boise State defeated on January 1, 2007. Doesn’t sound so impressive when you bring up the facts, does it?
IV. The Future? This leads us to the following questions: (1) why do we care so much about Boise State (namely, as opposed to other non-BCS programs) and (2) what chance do they really have to play for the title in 2010? I tried to keep this half of the article based in facts without much opinion or speculation. The next part of my argument will involve an admittedly biased focus against the Broncos (and, well, non-BCS programs in general). However the preseason top-5 ranking Boise received warrants this, as well as the complaining that will undoubtedly occur when/if an undefeated Boise does not make the national title game in 2010.
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