It’s getting down to crunch time in the Big 10, and although the big picture seems quite scattered, this weekend should help to answer our ultimate question: Who is going to step up and win this conference? Right now, Michigan State is in the driver’s seat, but a loss at Iowa would potentially make the Big 10 an absolute mess coming down the stretch. Picture this; If Iowa, Purdue, and Ohio State win on Saturday, there will be 5, Big 10 teams with only 1 conference loss. Understandably, Purdue has not played well, and a brutal end to their schedule all but eliminates them from this conversation. However, with the way most scenarios play out, there will be a 3 way tie for the Big 10 title at the end of the year. As far as I can see, the only way a team could win the conference outright is if Michigan State finishes clean. Thank goodness we won’t have to deal with this next year!
NORTHWESTERN @ INDIANA
Indiana’s 43-13 loss to Illinois last Saturday is a tad bit misleading. The Hoosiers were able to move the ball on a solid Illini defense, however, Indiana turnovers led to 24 Illinois points. Quarterback, Ben Chappell, continues to impress through the air, and despite have no semblance of a run game, Indiana can put plenty of points on the board. The Hoosiers are 6th in the nation in passing yards per game, however, their quick strike offense puts a ton of pressure on an already decimated defense. In short, they can score, but, they can be scored upon…a ton! To win this game, Ben Chappell needs to cut down on the turnovers, because Northwestern will score on their D. For Northwestern, a more balanced attack than they have shown in the past is a must. Dual threat quarterback, Dan Persa, is the team’s leading passer and rusher, but look for the Cats to go to their running backs a bit more as they try to control the clock and keep the ball away from Chappell. Northwestern has been solid on defense this year, but, Michigan State’s, Kirk Cousins, absolutely ripped them through the air last week, as I expect will Ben Chappell. All in all, this game has the potential to be a great, high scoring shootout, and one of the more entertaining Big 10 matchups this weekend.
PREDICTION
Look for Ben Chappell and the Hoosier air attack to exploit a weak Wildcat secondary. Northwestern will put up points on Indiana, however, I think the Hoosiers cut down the turnovers and pulls the upset at home. If you like offense, this should be your Big 10 game of the week.
PURDUE @ ILLINOIS
Was there a Big 10 fan in the country that didn’t feel bad for Purdue last week? After an embarrassing loss at Wisconsin, Ohio State took their frustration out on a Purdue team that simply had no chance. I wouldn’t use last week as a measuring stick for the Boilermakers, as they were simply in the wrong place at the wrong time. Having said that, Purdue has to find a way to effectively move the football if they want to beat an Illinois team whose defense seems to get better by the week. The Illini caused 5 turnovers in a blowout win over the Hoosiers last week, and Purdue’s offense is nowhere near as good as Indiana’s. Look for an Illini offense that averages almost 200 rushing yards per game, to wear down an undersized Boilermaker defensive front. Purdue, on the other hand, is almost dead last in the country in points per game. It won’t get any easier for them this week, as they face an Illini D that is 15th in the country in points against. Let’s be honest…On one hand, you have a team who is great defensively, runs the ball well, and is 114th in the nation in passing yards per game. On the other hand, you have a team who is 102nd in points per game, 109th in passing yards per game, and whose defense is pretty solid as well. The end result should be an absolute snooze fest.
PREDICTION
Well, I would argue that this is a simple numbers game. If Purdue is 102nd in points per game, and Illinois is 15th in points given up per game, it doesn’t look like Purdue will score more than 10. I don’t think the Illini will blow up on offense, but, they will score enough to make this one a “no doubter”. Vegas says 14…I still take Illinois.
OHIO STATE @ MINNESOTA
We all know that I am a religious Buckeye fan, but, I try to keep my analysis as unbiased as possible. Having said that, I still think Ohio State has the best team in the Big 10. After a 49-0 blowout over Purdue last weekend, the Buckeyes seem to be back on the right track, and all signs point to another Big 10 title (well, a share of the title anyway). However, for Minnesota, things just keep getting worse. At 1-7, the Gophers have lost 7 straight, and a midseason firing of Coach Tim Brewster, has made things even messier for this ball club. Truth be told, here is all you need to know about Saturday nights game; Ohio State is 6th in the nation in points for…Minnesota is 100th in the nation in points against…Ohio State is 9th in the nation in points against…Minnesota is 79th in the nation in points for. I really don’t know how much more analysis is needed. Look for Terrelle Pryor to continue his “post Madison” comeback as the Buckeyes win HUGE in Minneapolis.
PREDICTION
Last week I said that the game would be over by the half. I was wrong. Ohio State had the game wrapped up at the end of the 1st. Expect no different on Saturday. The Buckeyes are giving up a whopping 26 points in Vegas, and I would still take them.
MICHIGAN @ PENN STATE
Michigan Coach, Rich Rodriguez, has taken his exact West Virginia blueprint and implemented it in Ann Arbor. That blueprint is simply this; we care nothing for defense, so long as we score on almost every single possession (I’m paraphrasing of course). Well, it has worked…against the unranked teams that they have played. Unfortunately for RichRod, their two losses came to ranked teams who do emphasize defense, and they were able to contain the very high powered Wolverine attack. This isn’t the Big East, and if RichRod wants to build Michigan back up, he has to focus more on the defensive side of the ball. Period. Having said that, I don’t think the Wolverine’s lack of defense will be a problem against Penn State. this Saturday. At 20 points a game, the Lions are 99th in the nation, and a good (not great) defense will most likely struggle with the Michigan spread. Whether it be Denard Robinson, or Tate Forcier, I think Michigan can jump out to a big lead, something Penn State is not capable of coming back from. Penn State’s only real chance is controlling the clock. They NEED to chew up large chunks of the clock and keep the ball away from that powerful offensive attack. The Lions do have one of the most talented running backs in the conference in Evan Royster, and if he can exploit this Wolverine D, they may be able to stay in the game long enough to make it competitive.
PREDICTION
Vegas has this game at 3 points, and to be honest, I was kind of shocked by this. I see Michigan winning this game by at least a touchdown, based on their ability to score in bunches, and Penn State’s inability to move the ball with any type of consistency. Yes, the Wolverine defense is bad, but, I think they get enough stops that will allow them to pull away late.
** **
** **
BIG 10 GAME OF THE WEEK:
MICHIGAN STATE @ IOWA
So, here’s the million dollar question: Is this Spartan team for real? The answer: Well, we will know come Saturday. With Minnesota, Purdue, and, Penn State down the stretch, this is the last “real” test for Sparty. A win on Saturday would all but lock up a Big 10 title, and give Michigan State a very good argument as to why they should play for the national championship. A loss would most likely mean a 3 way tie at the end of the season between Ohio State or Iowa, Michigan State, and Wisconsin. Simply put, it’s not just teams on the field that are taking interest in this one. This game provides one of the best quarterback matchups that the Big 10 has to offer. For Iowa, Ricky Stanzi has been brilliant. In last week’s heartbreak loss to Wisconsin, Stanzi threw for 258 yards and 3 touchdowns, committing no turnovers. However, it is a brilliantly balanced offense that gives Iowa its pop. Running back, Adam Robinson, averages nearly 5 yards per carry, and barring injury, will most certainly hit the 1,000 yard mark this season. As for their defense, well, the Hawkeyes give up an astonishing 16 points per game, which makes them 11th in the land. Don’t let the 2 losses fool you. This team could very easily be undefeated. On the flip side of the coin, the Spartans have been getting it done on the back of standout quarterback Kirk Cousins. In an amazing comeback victory against Northwestern last Saturday, Cousins threw for 329 yards and three touchdowns, committing 0 turnovers as well. On the ground, State has been extremely effective, employing a two back attack. Halfbacks Edwin Baker and Le’Veon Bell have split time, and both have rushed for well over 500 yards a piece this season. Statistically, these two teams almost mirror each other. Just take a look…
Passing Yards
Michigan State-34th (255yds per game)
Iowa-38th (253yds per game)
Rushing Yards
Michigan State-28th (193yds per game)
Iowa-53rd (159yds per game)
Points For
Michigan State-26th (34pts per game)
Iowa-30th (30pts per game)
Points Against
Michigan State-18th (18pts per game)
Iowa 11th (16 pts per game)
PREDICTION
Again, this game looks SO close on paper, but, I think after a devastating loss to Wisconsin, Iowa pulls out a close one at home. Vegas says Iowa by 4 1/2. That may be a tad bit too much, but I would agree that Iowa wins. Look for both Stanzi, and Cousins to have big games, but in the end, Stanzi will lead his team to victory.