Ladies and Gentlemen, you are in for a real treat! Week 10 is going to provide more thrills and…ok, you caught me; this week is going to be weak! The Big 10 race will most certainly be exciting coming down the stretch, however, we should think of this as a break before the fun begins. If everything goes as expected, this weekend shouldn’t come close to changing the landscape of the conference championship. Be that as it may, I was absolutely terrible in my week 9 preview, and I feel as if some redemption is in order (I couldn’t have picked a better weekend).
IOWA @ INDIANA
The Vegas 17 point spread should pretty much tell you all you need to know about this game. Iowa is the best 2 loss team in the land, and could very easily be undefeated. Ricky Stanzi has been nothing short of brilliant, and his quarterback rating of 180.3 is second only to Boise’s, Kellen Moore. He has a big time playmaker in Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, and running back, Adam Robinson (806yds, 4.7ypc), helps to make this one of the most balanced offenses in the nation. However, it is Iowa’s defense that really sets the tone for this team. The Hawkeye D is 8th in the country in points per game (14.5), and extremely tough interior pressure has led to 13 defensive interceptions. Iowa has a huge advantage in the trenches, and will exploit that in order to force Hoosier quarterback, Ben Chappell, into making big mistakes on Saturday.
Indiana loves to sling it around, and at 312.9 passing yards per game, ranks 8th in the nation. However, the Hoosiers have struggled against solid defenses. Two weeks ago, Illinois forced turnover after turnover in a lopsided victory, and last week, Northwestern held Indiana to less than 6 yards per completion. It seems as if teams have finally figured it out; with no semblance of a running game whatsoever, defenses need only to focus on mid-range to deep passing, and give Chappell the underneath routes. If Indiana wants to continue to get better, they absolutely need a more significant rushing attack. On the defensive side of the ball, the Hoosiers have been flat out awful. At nearly 30 points per game, they have been diced apart by nearly every team they have faced. Again, I respect the direction this program is heading, and their air attack makes them fun to watch, however, they cannot survive in the Big 10 without defense. Hit that recruiting trail coach; you’re going to need to start ramping it up!
PREDICTION:
This one should be over quickly. Iowa’s defensive front will dominate a clearly overmatched Hoosier offensive line. This will most likely lead to several mistakes by Ben Chappell. Expect Indiana to rely on short, quick routes, in the hopes that one of their speedy wideouts can break one deep. For Iowa, Ricky Stanzi will take advantage of a weak defense and jump ahead early. Iowa won’t need to score much, but they probably will. Vegas says 17; I still say take Iowa.
MINNESTOA @ MICHIGAN STATE
Remember a few weeks ago when I talked about the Ohio State/Purdue game? Remember how I said that Purdue was in the wrong place at the wrong time, and after a terrible loss, Ohio State wanted to take it out on somebody weak? Remember how the final of that game was 49-0? Remember how Michigan State got absolutely destroyed by Iowa last week? Remember how God awful Minnesota is? Are you staring to see where I am going with this? In short, Minnesota is in the wrong place at the wrong time. For Sparty, this game could really tell a ton about this team. Will they sulk over their loss and come out flat, or will they take revenge? It’s no secret that State has been a bit overrated this year, however, they do have a nice football team and can still share the Big 10 crown. Quarterback, Kirk Cousins, has had a very productive year, and despite last week’s showing, is still one of the best in the conference. State ranks 2nd in the Big 10 in passing yards per game, and 4th in rushing, which leads to an extremely balanced attack. Defensively, Sparty ranks 2nd in the conference in sacks and interceptions, which has led to great field position week in and week out. Again, this team is more than capable of running the table, it’s a matter of how motivated they will be after a devastating loss. Expect Sparty to have a nice “comeback game” against a clearly outmatched opponent.
Oh Minnesota, where to begin. I was in attendance at last week’s game against Ohio State, and I can say one thing; the new stadium is beautiful. Now, go get a football team to play in it! At 1-8, the Gophers have been flat out abysmal. They have only been competitive in 2 of their losses, and one was against a I-AA team. At 34 points per game, there are only a few teams in the country that get scored upon more, and at 8, quarterback Aaron Weber has thrown more interceptions than anyone in the conference. Their main running threat averages less than 4 yards per carry, and their best receiver may be their backup quarterback. As much as I would love to analyze this team further, what else can be said?
PREDICTION:
Vegas has this game at 23 points, and to be honest, I am not sure that is enough. Kirk Cousins and a strong rushing attack will most certainly exploit a defense that has more holes than Swiss cheese. Look for State to jump out to a big lead early, and not look back.
WISCONSIN @ PURDUE
Boy, the marquee matchups are just pilling up this week, huh? Wisconsin has been, in a word, awesome! Their only loss came to Michigan State, and the win over Ohio State was a program changer. Bucky’s inside/out rushing attack has been nearly perfect, and quarterback, Scott Tolzien, has not met expectations…he has far exceeded them. In short, this has been the season that Wisconsin has needed. I would expect the good times to roll on Saturday, as they outmatch Purdue in just about every position on the field. Let’s just make this easy shall we? Quarterback; UW. Running backs; UW. Offensive line; UW. Wideouts/Tight Ends; UW. Defensive front; UW. Linebackers; UW. Secondary; UW. Special teams; UW. Yup, Wisconsin is better in every facet of the game! Look for the dynamite duo of Clay and White to chop up the Boilermaker defense early, with Tolzien only going to the air when necessary. Sconnie loves to chew the clock, but, I still foresee quick strikes against a terrible defense. On the flip side, there are 5 teams in the land that throw for less yards than Purdue, so, Wisconsin will simply load up the box and force them to try to move the ball with their arm. Expect an absolute rout.
Purdue is pretty much in the same situation as Minnesota. How this team is 4-4 absolutely shocks me. However, they have a decent rushing attack and a defensive stud, Ryan Kerrigan, who absolutely wreaks havoc on opposing quarterbacks. However, they really are outmatched in every facet of this game. If the Boilermakers want to have any chance at winning, they need to control the clock better than Wisconsin, and that is nearly impossible. Moving forward, this team needs to be able to pass the ball. I realize that the Big 10 is a primarily running conference, but, SOME balance is absolutely necessary, and Purdue just doesn’t have it.
PREDICTION:
Vegas is predicting another Big 10 blow out, with Wisconsin giving up 20 points. Purdue can keep it within 20, but they have to find ways to eat up large chunks of clock, and get it in the endzone. In the end, I think an unstoppable rushing attack will lead the Badgers to a 20+ point victory, and another cover for the favorites.
ILLINOIS @ MICHIGAN
Last week I predicted a Michigan upset. I was wrong. Why? Well, it seems as if I have vastly overrated the Wolverine defense (and by “vastly overrated” I mean that I thought they could make 1 defensive stop per game). Their defense is that bad. I said it last week, and I’ll say it again: If RichRod thinks that his Big East, no defense, philosophy will work in this conference, he won’t be here very long. Last week the Wolverines gave up 41 to a Penn State team that has been very average on offense. However, Michigan can score in bundles, so, they are always a threat to win. As an Ohio State fan it pains me to say this, but, Michigan rivals Oregon on the “most fun offenses to watch” list. They are incredibly balanced, averaging 242 yards per game through the air, and 275 through the ground. Denard Robinson leads the nation in rushing, and his 155.3 quarterback rating puts him in the top 25 in passing. Simply put, “Shoelace” has been the man! This run/pass combo means that defenses are always playing on their toes, and very rarely know what to expect. Michigan faces a very solid Illinois defense, however, the only thing that has been able to slow Robinson down has been injuries. If he stays healthy on Saturday, he should be able to single handedly chop up the Illini D.
Illinois is yet another Big 10 team that simply lacks balance. Freshman quarterback, Nathan, Scheelhaase, has not been effective through the air, and this allows opposing defenses to load up against the run. However, this team’s defense keeps them in ball games. The Illini impressively rank 12th in the nation in points against (16.8), and they will need a solid effort on Saturday if they want to stop Denard and company. Illinois can run the ball efficiently, so they will attempt to utilize the run as a way to control the clock. Look for the Illini to chew up huge chunks of time while exploiting a Michigan defensive front that is flat out awful.
PREDICTION:
This is the most intriguing matchup of the week in the Big 10. Both teams have a legitimate shot at winning, and Vegas’ 1 point spread (Michigan is favored) is a testament to that. Michigan will score on most possessions, but, Illinois will have success killing the clock against an overmatched defensive front. This game will be very close, however, I believe that Michigan will be able to create some stops against the “one trick pony” that is the Illini offense. I think Michigan wins a close one, but, this game really is a coin flip.
NORTHWESTERN @ PENN STATE
How can you not love Northwestern? This school has had a less than stellar football history, and is known more for producing doctors than football players. Head coach, Pat Fitzgerald, has done an amazing job with this program, and at 6-2, the ‘Cats have a legitimate shot to play in a major bowl. Wildcat quarterback, Scott Persa, has been impressive, and his 162.7 rating ranks third in the Big 10. Persa also leads the Northwestern rushing attack which doesn’t put up gaudy numbers, but always seems to come through when needed. Defensively, Northwestern is led by Vince Brown, whose 6 sacks are 2nd in the conference, and by Quentin Davis, who is tied for the conference lead in interceptions. Look for these two to have a big day against a Penn State offense that is getting better by the week, but still nowhere near where they want to be. Persa will have a difficult time against a tough Nittany Lions D, however, there will be opportunities to beat them through the air. Penn State is 10th in the conference in sacks, and Persa should have plenty of time to throw the ball. He will have to have an efficient game through the air if Northwestern plans on winning this Saturday.
Penn State has had, by school standards, a pretty rough year. This is the first time JoPa has started a freshmen quarterback in about 30 years, and it showed early. Again, when you lack balance, it allows opposing defenses to completely sell out, and it forces teams to play outside of their comfort zones. Defenses have absolutely loaded up on running back, Evan Royster, and his drop in productivity from last season is living proof. The Lion’s pass game, however, is improving by the week, and it looks like they are setting themselves up to make a strong end of the season run. The defense, on the other hand, is a solid as usual, and at 20 points per game is in the top 30 in the nation. This number is a bit skewed, in that Penn State’s defense has had a tremendous amount of pressure put on them due to a lack of offensive clock management. As offensive clock management improves, so will the Lion’s D.
PREDICTION:
Vegas says this is a coin flip. I love Northwestern’s story, but Penn State has the better team. I truly believe that. Look for Evan Royster to have a monster game, and propel State to victory. This game will be close, but, the Lion’s just have too much talent for the Wildcats.