The biggest game of the year before the bowl season is shaping up to be Auburn traveling to Alabama. With Alabama’s strength of schedule, this projection jumps Alabama over undefeated Boise State, and TCU/Utah in the BCS rankings if they defeat Auburn. They will likely be ranked in the top three or four in the human polls and the computers love the Crimson Tide. That means assuming the Crimson Tide or the Auburn Tigers escape the SEC gauntlet with only one loss, the winner of the Iron Bowl will play for the BCS National Championship.
These projections point out some interesting trends. With Southern Cal’s post-season ban, these projections predict that the Pac-10 will not field more than five bowl teams. This is the lowest of the automatic qualifier conferences. Even the Big East fields six according to the following projections. To add insult to injury to the Pac-10, Conference USA is expected to field more bowl teams than the power conference on the west coast. The SEC and Big XII lead the way with nine projected bowl teams. The Big Ten and ACC both are projected to field 8. With the likelihood of two “BCS busters” playing in the BCS, Stanford and Oklahoma/Nebraska will probably be on the outside looking in when the biggest of the bowl games are played. The SEC and the Big Ten are projected to be the only conferences with two teams playing in the Bowl Championship Series.
New Mexico Bowl
BYU vs. Ohio
Comment: BYU has the schedule to make a run to be bowl eligible. It is a run the Cougars desperately need before going independent in 2011. The Bobcats are already bowl eligible and should add at least another win or two to their total before the end of the season. The WAC has a tie in to the New Mexico Bowl, but is expected to have exhausted their bowl eligible teams, making room for Ohio.
uDrove Humanitarian Bowl
Toledo vs. Fresno State
Comment: Outside of an inexplicable loss to Wyoming, Toledo has done exactly what is expected. They have losses to Boise State and Arizona but have remained unblemished in the MAC. With a projection to lose at Northern Illinois, the Rockets should slide down to the third selection for MAC teams. Fresno State has been equally predictable with losses only to Hawaii and Ole Miss. A brutal stretch against Nevada, Boise State, and then hosting Illinois a few weeks later means the games against Louisiana Tech and Idaho are extremely important for their bowl standing.
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
SMU vs. Troy State
Comment: The Mustangs have put a hurting on Conference USA this season. With June Jones, SMU has posted some big numbers on the scoreboard throughout the year. They can score points and are an exciting pick for the New Orleans Bowl. Troy State has owned the Sun Belt Conference recently, and they look primed to take the title again.
Beef ‘O’ Brady’s St. Petersburg Bowl
Tulsa vs. UConn
Comment: The Huskies have not lost a home game all year. That is good news because they have not won a road game yet. UConn sits at 4-4 with two games at home and two games on the road left on the schedule. The stretch is not an easy one for UConn, but they are projected to win two of their last four to be bowl eligible and represent the Big East for their tie in. Most project Southern Mississippi here, but this projection has Tulsa beating Southern Miss at the end of the season as that game is in Tulsa. That should give the Golden Hurricanes a slight boost in the bowl selection.
MAACO Las Vegas Bowl
Washington vs. Utah
Comment: The Huskies will likely have to win their last three games to be bowl eligible. Fortunately, they host UCLA before playing road games at Cal and Washington State. It is as manageable a string of games as you could hope for to reach six wins. With Southern Cal’s post season ban, Washington is probably the Pac 10’s b
est chance for a fifth bowl eligible team. Utah, of course, still has BCS aspirations. If they defeat TCU, they’ll be headed to one of the BCS games, most likely the Rose Bowl. The difference? Try a $16,000,000 payout in bowl revenue. No pressure, boys.
S.D. County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
San Diego State vs. Navy
Comment: Navy will be assured of this bowl bid as soon as they hit six wins. They are only one win away with four winnable games ahead of them on the schedule. San Diego State likely gets the nod over Air Force because the game is held in San Diego. Plus, bowls aren’t a big fan of rematches, and Air Force and Navy have already faced off this year.
Sheraton Hawaii Bowl
East Carolina vs. Hawaii
Comment: Both teams score a ton of points, and both teams love to toss the ball all over the yard. Combined, they are close to 800 yards passing a game. This would be a fun, fun game to watch between two mid-major programs.
Little Caesars Pizza Bowl
Northern Illinois vs. Miami (OH)
Comment: NIU’s only losses this year have come on the road at Iowa State and Illinois. The proximity to the host city is good for Northern Illinois as well. The Big Ten is projected to run out of bowl eligible teams as we do not feel as comfortable about Purdue’s ability to win two more games as some others. The result is an open spot for Miami (OH) which is a pretty good geographic fit. They are a pretty good football team as well and could have as many as eight wins before the bowl season starts.
AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl
Georgia Tech vs. Air Force
Comment: This would be old school football at its best. Both teams love to run the option, and there could be upwards to 600 yards rushing in this contest. Air Force and Georgia Tech were both aiming higher for more prestigious bowl games, but this one has some history. If this is the matchup, it could be over in about two hours. The game clock will just run and run and run…just like the offenses.
Champs Sports Bowl
North Carolina State vs. Syracuse
Comment: Syracuse has been a pleasant surprise for the Big East which was in desperate need of one this year. North Carolina State has likewise leapfrogged teams such as Miami and Georgia Tech to be a contender in the ACC. Both projected teams have exceeded expectations and should be proud of heading to Orlando to play in this bowl.
Insight Bowl
Oklahoma State vs. Penn State
Comment: The Nittany Lions are in position to jump a few teams that have better overall and conference records in the Big Ten at this time. Games against Northwestern and Indiana at home should be victories for Joe Pa’s squad. They also host Michigan State for their regular season finale. The Cowboys could start a downturn as the season comes to a close. Baylor has proven they can’t be taken lightly, and the Bears visit Stillwater this coming Saturday. The Pokes also travel to Austin and have to play host to the Sooners. While Penn State’s bowl stock will be rising to get into this bowl, OSU’s is predicted to fall to this point.
EagleBank Military Bowl
Virginia vs. Southern Miss
Comment: The Cavaliers have made huge improvements under first year coach Mike London. Few people expected a bowl bid, and they still have some work to do. Southern Miss, however, was expected to compete for the Conference USA championship. The season has not panned out the way they expected. A matchup between Southern Miss and Virginia might be a very even-matched football game.
Texas Bowl
Texas vs. Northwestern
Comment: If you would have polled college football pundits around the nation, a down year for the Longhorns would have resulted in a Cotton Bowl bid. Instead, Texas has lost four games in the first eight, and while they aren’t in any real danger of not being bowl eligible, they are in danger of losing their swagger and their mystique. The Wildcats are already bowl eligible, but their most impressive win was a road victory against Indiana this past Saturday.
Valero Alamo Bowl
Missouri vs. Stanford
Comment: Two big time offenses and two big time quarterbacks. With the BCS shaking out to have two teams from non-automatic qualifiers in the BCS, both Missouri and Stanford should be content with an Alamo Bowl bid. It is hard to imagine either crawling into the BCS themselves, or in Missouri’s case, a second Big XII school playing as an at-large in the BCS which would move the Tigers up a spot in the Big XII pecking order.
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl
Houston vs. Army
Comment: Houston averages around 300 yards per game through the air. Army averages almost 300 yards per game rushing. The two offenses couldn’t be more different. It would be an interesting game as these change of pace contests can be real chess matches late if it is close.
New Era Pinstripe Bowl
Kansas State vs. Rutgers
Comment: Hey, yo! The state school from Jersey would be a perfect fit for the Pinstripe Bowl which is played in Yankee stadium. It’s looking like it might happen. Kansas State would be a tough test for any Big East team they might play, and both of these teams love to run the football. Late December in New York can make for some nasty weather, and it could be a fun one to watch if the snow is coming down in the Bronx.
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
North Carolina vs. Georgia
Comment: Georgia Tech makes more sense from the ACC side, but the Music City Bowl simply can’t turn down the Georgia Bulldogs. Georgia has only played in the Music City Bowl once, and it is a very manageable drive from Athens to Nashville. Because the bowl committee will not want to have a matchup from just a few weeks before, they will skip over Georgia Tech and take someone else instead, possibly North Carolina.
Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl
Baylor vs. Arizona
Comment: If Baylor beats Texas A&M at home, the Bears will finish with at least 8 wins. Of course, Baylor is still thinking about playing for a Big XII championship, but reality should come down hard when they face both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. Still, if they finish 8-4, they would be a fairly easy choice for the Holiday Bowl committee to take. Arizona appears to be the third best team in the Pac 10 which is the easiest major conference to rank.
Meineke Car Care Bowl
Maryland vs. West Virginia
Comment: The topsy-turvy world of the ACC allows Maryland to slide up in the conference bowl picture. West Virginia looked like the favorite to win the Big East earlier in the season, but have seen hopes of the BCS start to slip away. West Virginia might find themselves sliding down the Big East bowl list a little further than they would like.
Hyundai Sun Bowl
Miami (Fl) vs. Oregon State
Comment: Both teams figured to be in the mix for a better bowl, but both have blown major opportunities throughout the season. In addition, the Sun Bowl is sandwiched between two other ACC matchups that will overlap on this date. Both teams have underachieved a bit, and this is the result.
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Central Florida vs. Kentucky
Comment: The Knights have lost only to Kansas State and North Carolina State, both teams that will figure into the bowl season from major conferences. UCF played both of those teams very close as well. Kentucky continues to be a thorn for SEC contenders under Joker Phillips. The Wildcat offense has piled up some impressive numbers against SEC defenses.
Chick-fil-A Bowl
Florida State vs. Mississippi State
Comment: While Florida State had BCS aspirations at the beginning of the season, getting to the Chick-fil-A Bowl would be a step in the right direction after finishing 6-6 in the regular season last year. Making a bowl game at all is a nice step forward for Mississippi State which has exceeded expectations.
Dallas Football Classic
Iowa State vs. Michigan
Comment: Iowa State has been surprisingly competitive in the Big XII, currently sitting in third in the north division. The big win over Texas in Austin catapulted Iowa State in the bowl picture, and if the cyclones manage to beat either Nebraska or Missouri- both games are in Ames- then Iowa State could find themselves pushed up the list even further. Michigan has been steadily falling after starting off 5-0. Denard Robinson created a lot of buzz about the Wolverines, but three straight losses has brought Michigan back to reality. Michigan still has Wisconsin and Ohio State on the schedule. With only four games remaining, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where the Wolverines finish with more than seven wins.
Outback Bowl
Iowa vs. South Carolina
Comment: It is a rare season when the SEC East champion takes a step down to the Outback Bowl. The strength of the conference, however, is clearly in the western division. Iowa would be a stiff challenge for the Gamecocks as the Hawkeyes might field the best defensive front in college football.
Capital One Bowl
LSU vs. Michigan State
Comment: The Spartans have taken the college football world by storm while LSU has trudged forward with unimpressive win after unimpressive win. The Tiger defense will give any Big Ten team fits, Michigan State included. Both teams are very athletic, especially on defense. Michigan State linebacker Greg Jones and LSU defensive back Patrick Peterson are two of the best defensive players in the nation.
Gator Bowl
Illinois vs. Florida
Comment: The Gator Bowl would love to host the University of Florida. It would assure a sellout and gives the Bowl a marquee name to the lineup. Illinois is trying desperately to turn the corner in the Big Ten, and a win over a name program like the Florida Gators would be a great way to boost the efforts in Champaign.
Rose Bowl Game
TCU vs. Ohio State
Comment: It looks as if Oregon will be playing in the BCS National Championship Game. If that is the case, the Rose Bowl will not get their traditional Pac 10 versus Big Ten matchup. TCU could get their chance against an automatic qualifier conference member school. There is no guarantee that Ohio State will win the Big Ten, but if they win out, their strength of schedule should put them in this spot.
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl
Nebraska vs. Boise State
Comment: The differences between Nebraska and Boise State are vast. Their histories and schemes are worlds apart. Once again, Boise would get a chance to knock off a historic program on one of the biggest stages in college football. Nebraska, predicted to win the Big XII, tries to take some bragging rights before they head off to the Big Ten next season.
Orange Bowl
Virginia Tech vs. Pittsburgh
Comment: After looking like a major flop in the first two weeks, the Hokies of Virginia Tech have rattled off six straight wins and have been very impressive. Pittsburgh has laid all of its eggs against non-conference opponents and may win the Big East by default. After all, some Big East team is going to be forced to back their way into a BCS bowl game whether they like it or not.
Allstate Sugar Bowl
Alabama vs. Wisconsin
Comment: Both of these teams are good enough to win their respective conferences, and both teams may still do it. Some may consider Alabama a favorite to beat Auburn as that game is in Tuscaloosa. If that happens, expect the Tide to hop over all others in the BCS. The only difference is they would switch places with Auburn. Wisconsin could hold on to their top BCS ranking in the Big Ten to win the conference and play in the Rose Bowl, but Ohio State’s strength of schedule down the stretch is tougher and will probably give them the nod.
GoDaddy.com Bowl
Temple vs. Middle Tennessee State
Comment: This potential matchup underscores why only the biggest bowl games of the year should be held on New Year’s Day or after. There is absolutely not one good reason why this game is after four of the five BCS Bowl games. This is absurdity at its highest.
AT&T Cotton Bowl Classic
Arkansas vs. Oklahoma
Comment: The Cotton Bowl committee would love to host these two programs again. The Cotton Bowl Classic hasn’t hosted Arkansas since 2007 or Oklahoma since 2002. Both offenses are explosive, and one would assume they would score more than the combined 13 points the two managed against each other in the 2001 Cotton Bowl. The Sooners won that one 10-3. There would be no shortage of offensive stars at the skill player positions if this was the matchup.
Birmingham Bowl
South Florida vs. Louisiana Monroe
Comment: South Florida has some work left to do as they sit at 4-3 overall. Winning two of their last five is certainly attainable and probably expected. There are no gimme games along the way, and the Bulls will have to earn those two. ULM also has to take care of some business, and their situation is a little more dire, having only four games left to win two. LSU is almost a certain loss, so that leaves just three games to win two. The good news is that ULM will likely be favored to win all three. Again, why is this game played days after four of the BCS bowls?
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl
Texas Tech vs. Nevada
Comment: Barring a huge upset over either Oklahoma or Missouri, the Red Raiders are going to be relying on winning their last two games. They are both winnable for Tech- Weber State and Houston. With a projection of only five bowl eligible teams from the Pac-10, Texas Tech would be a suitable replacement. Nevada still has some lingering hope to win the WAC, but it requires winning later in the year against Boise State.
Tostitos BCS National Championship Game
Oregon vs. Auburn
Comment: Despite the lack of defense, Auburn has proven they can outscore just about anyone they play. That will be a monster hurdle against Oregon who averages almost a point a minute. There is no telling what the over/under number will be for you betting fans out there…but take the over. Either Cam Newton or LaMichael James should own the Heisman trophy by this point. Will the winner get revenge or add insult to injury?
Note: Predictions were made based on presumption of bowl eligibility, predicted standings, and bowl tie ins for each conference. If the assumption was made that a conference would not have enough bowl eligible teams to fill the required number of positions, alternate conference options were used when available. If no predicted alternate was available, an at-large option was selected that was assumed to be bowl eligible.
