Remember at the beginning of the season when people were wondering if Boise State could get into the BCS National Championship Game? Remember when the discussion was if a one-loss Alabama team could keep Boise State from having a shot at winning all the marbles? Well brace yourself. It is entirely possible that an undefeated Boise State not only misses out of the BCS Championship game, but misses out of the BCS altogether.
Nobody is saying it is fair or it isn’t. What these projections are saying is what nobody else will say: an undefeated Boise State might not make the Bowl Championship series at all. College football is a business, and BCS bowls are big business. Television ratings are a prime consideration. How well teams travel is another. National and historical prestige also plays a part. And let’s be frank and honest. Boise State doesn’t boast huge ratings, travel like the University of Alabama, and their historical prestige is roughly a decade old. And let’s go ahead and say what everyone else has said: Boise State simply hasn’t proven anything this year. Until you start beating the big boys- and yes, you might have to schedule some unfair contracts that will not bring the upper tier talents to your place- then one shouldn’t expect to play the big boys at the end of the year.
This analysis could be wrong, but these projections will say what others don’t have the fortitude to tell you: The truth.
New Mexico Bowl
Nevada Wolf Pack vs. Miami (OH) RedHawks
Comment: Nevada is expected to beat Fresno State this week, though they will probably have to work for it. New Mexico State and Louisiana Tech should provide only token resistance to the Wolf Pack. That leaves Boise State as the big matchup left for Nevada. Boise is projected to win that matchup. If Boise gets invited to the BCS, Nevada likely moves up to the Humanitarian Bowl. The RedHawks already have their six wins and should receive at least one more as they play Akron this coming Wednesday. They also host Temple and could give the Owls all they want in that one. Finishing the regular season with eight victories would be a monster improvement over just three wins in the previous two seasons.
uDrove Humanitarian Bowl
Boise State Broncos vs. Ohio Bobcats
Comment: Look. Here is the deal. Boise has been a great story the last few years. But until they start playing and beating top caliber teams, they will continue to be a side show. Yes, a 10-2 Alabama team is a more interesting matchup for 12-1 Nebraska than 12-0 Boise State. Yes, the same goes for LSU if Auburn wins out. Yes, Stanford is a better Rose Bowl selection than Boise if Oregon wins out. There are four teams in the SEC West alone that would beat Boise State on a neutral field. Boise should not go to a BCS bowl because they haven’t earned it. That’s unfortunate for Ohio who will probably be another mediocre team that gets beat by three touchdowns if Boise doesn’t get selected for the BCS. The Bobcats already have seven wins and should add at least one more before their bowl game.
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
SMU Mustangs vs. Troy Trojans
Comment: Southern Methodist University is sitting at 5-5 with games against Marshall and at East Carolina. Obviously, the Mustangs want to take care of business against the Thundering Herd at home, and this projection says that they will. June Jones has had two weeks to prepare an offense for Marshall, and they should be able to get the job done. Troy State should finish as the Sun Belt Conference champions. They host Florida International which should decide the conference, and the projection is for the Trojans to win. Conference games against Western Kentucky and Florida Atlantic should also figure into the win column, giving Troy eight wins going into the New Orleans Bowl.
Beef ‘O’ Brady’s St. Petersburg Bowl
UConn Huskies vs. Southern Miss Golden Eagles
Comment: Southern Miss has already taken care of the six win business. With their best chance to pick up another one being against Houston at home, it might be a good thing. Road contests against Central Florida and Tulsa still remain on the schedule, and this projection does not have Southern Miss winning either of the two. Connecticut still has to win two of their last four. They host Cincinnati, and that is one projected win. Connecticut has yet to lose at home, so hosting Pitt might be their best chance to get that sixth win under their belt. The Huskies are capable of beating both Syracuse and South Florida on the road, but would like to take care of business at home. Any road wins would just be money in the bank at that point.
MAACO Las Vegas Bowl
Utah Utes vs. Texas Longhorns
Comment: It is hard to imagine the University of Texas not playing in a bowl game. Yet, here they sit at 4-5 with two ranked opponents still on the schedule. Here is the good news. Florida Atlantic is still on the schedule and should be good for at least one of the two necessary wins. Also, the two games against ranked opponents are both at home. Here is the bad news. All but one of Texas’ losses have been home games. The other, a neutral site loss to Oklahoma. This projection has Texas knocking off Texas A&M on a short week at home. A&M will have had a tough, brutal game against Nebraska the week before while Texas should have the luxury of resting a bit against Florida Atlantic. If you had told Utah that they would be playing a bowl game against Texas at the end of the season, Utah probably wouldn’t have been happier. They would have figured it meant a BCS game. Not exactly. Utah has been bowl eligible since the middle of October, but the drilling they took by TCU knocked them out of any contention for the Bowl Championship Series. Utah could still lose another game. Road games against Notre Dame and San Diego State could pose some serious challenges. BYU is the rivalry game to end the year.
S.D. County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
San Diego State Aztecs vs. Navy Midshipmen
Comment: Navy has already been invited and accepted the Poinsettia Bowl bid. Navy has already compiled six wins and could add three more. Central Michigan and Arkansas State are two teams Navy should handle with relative ease. Of course the Army-Navy game is always a classic. San Diego State is a logical choice for the bowl sponsored by the San Diego County Credit Union. At 7-2, the Aztecs have played a strong campaign. They will probably drop their next two games- TCU and Utah- but they do finish against UNLV.
Sheraton Hawaii Bowl
Tulsa Golden Hurricanes vs. Hawaii Warriors
Comment: Tulsa raised a few eyebrows by beating Notre Dame in South Bend in late October. Already with six wins, Tulsa could add three more wins to their total. A trip to Houston is followed by home games against UTEP and Southern Miss. They should win their home games, so depending on the trip to Houston, the Golden Hurricanes should finish with either 8 or 9 wins. Hawaii has already accepted this bowl invitation. The Warriors already have seven wins and they should, by all accounts, add three more before the Hawaii Bowl.
Little Caesars Pizza Bowl
Northern Illinois vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Comment: Northern Illinois is expected to win their remaining games. In fact, including the MAC championship game, NIU should be 11-2 when they play in their bowl game. Both losses came on the road to major conference opponents that should figure into the bowl picture- Illinois and Iowa State. NIU will not be a fun team to play as they are projected to be on a 10-game winning streak entering the bowl season. Rutgers won’t have that much momentum. In fact, it is a very real possibility that they won’t be bowling at all. At 4-4 on the year, the Scarlet Knights need to win two of their last four. They do play Cincinnati, so that should be one. They get Syracuse and Louisville at home and the projection is that they will win at least one of those. The Scarlet Knights do not want to be short one win in their regular season finale as they travel to West Virginia.
AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl
Clemson Tigers vs. Air Force Falcons
Comment: Air Force already has their six wins necessary and should add a couple more. They still have New Mexico and UNLV to play. Air Force broke into the top 25, but a string of tough losses against San Diego State, TCU, and Utah put an abrupt end to that. Air Force took home the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy by beating both Navy and Army. Clemson is hard to figure out. They took Auburn to overtime in the Plains and then look outclassed against Miami. They lose to a struggling Boston College team, turn around, and drop North Carolina State. With Wake Forest still on the schedule and with South Carolina starting their end of the year decline, Clemson should get their sixth win and a bowl bid.
Champs Sports Bowl
North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Syracuse Orange
Comment: Both teams are already bowl eligible. The difference is that NC State still controls their own BCS destiny. If they run the table and beat Wake Forest, UNC, and Maryland, the Wolfpack plays for the ACC championship. Losses to East Carolina and Clemson leaves serious doubts as to whether they can maintain a level play to accomplish that. This projection has NC State losing to their rival in Chapel Hill. For the Orange, running the table and finishing 9-3 is a distinct possibility. There is a road game against Rutgers, but they follow that up with home games against UConn and Boston College.
Insight Bowl
Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Michigan Wolverines
Comment: Michigan and Denard Robinson took the world by fire early in the season. After winning their first five against mediocre to bad opponents, the Wolverines dropped their next three. Now it seems Robinson gets nicked up every game, and the winds have been taken out of the Wolverines’ sails. The good news is that Michigan is already bowl eligible with Purdue still on the schedule. Oklahoma State’s offense has been phenomenal this year. They can run the ball, but they really excel at passing it. A lone loss to Nebraska is all that mars the Cowboys’ record. Texas and Oklahoma still remain, so there is a projection of at least one more loss for Oklahoma State.
EagleBank Military Bowl
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs. Army Black Knights
Comment: Army needs one more win to be bowl eligible, and if and when they get it, they will accept the Military Bowl bid. They should get it this week against Kent State. The Black Knights have some heart breaking losses and their record could be better than the 5-4 mark they sit on today. Georgia Tech is also 5-4. They should get their sixth win next week against Duke. The season for Georgia Tech would be easier to accept if not for the horrible loss to Kansas. Getting thumped at home by North Carolina State didn’t do much for the Yellow Jackets’ perception either. North Carolina and Virginia are the only quality wins for Georgia Tech this year.
Texas Bowl
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Baylor Bears
Comment: Both Baylor and Illinois have been pleasant surprises for their respective conferences. With wins over Kansas State and Texas, it is hard to write off Baylor’s record as an anomaly. Robert Griffin III might be the most complete quarterback in the conference. With home games against Texas A&M and Oklahoma, Baylor has two more opportunities to strut their stuff against quality opponents. Illinois should become bowl eligible this week as they host Minnesota. Games on the road against Northwestern and Fresno State are also games that the Illini should have a chance to win.
Valero Alamo Bowl
Missouri Tigers vs. Arizona Wildcats
Comment: Missouri has already put together a solid season with wins over Oklahoma and Texas A&M. They have, however, lost their last two games, and that must give some pause to what direction the Tigers are moving. A home game against Kansas State followed by a trip to Iowa State, are up next on the list, so Missouri needs to right the ship. Arizona has a very impressive win over Iowa. Their loss to Oregon State at home is troubling, but for the most part the 7-2 Wildcats are working on a very good season. The last three games won’t be easy. Southern Cal, Oregon, and their rivalry game against Arizona State is what Arizona has to look forward to as they wind down the season.
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl
East Carolina Pirates vs. BYU Cougars
Comment: The Cougars still need two more wins to get bowl eligible and only three games to do it. They should get it with their next two contests- at Colorado State and a home game against New Mexico. BYU had better win both as a road trip to Utah is the finale. East Carolina also has a little work left to finish. They are currently 5-4 and need one more win to reach bowl eligibility. Running the table and finishing 8-4 is a definite possibility for East Carolina as UAB, Rice, and SMU are the teams remaining on the Pirates’ schedule.
New Era Pinstripe Bowl
Texas A&M Aggies vs. West Virginia Mountaineers
Comment: Losing three games straight to Oklahoma State, Arkansas, and Missouri doesn’t look quite as bad anymore for Texas A&M. Wins against Texas Tech and Oklahoma over their last two have made Texas A&M not only bowl eligible, but with an opportunity to put a stamp on a very productive season. Baylor, Nebraska, and Texas still remain on the schedule. All three are tough games- Baylor looks more menacing now than before the season started, Texas less so. 8-4 is a real possibility for Texas A&M that has played very good offense the last three weeks. If so, they could play their way as high as the Holiday Bowl. The Mountaineers do not look like the team favored to win the Big East just three weeks ago. Losing back to back games against Syracuse and UConn, West Virginia is starting to slide down the Big East bowl list. They still have home games against Cincinnati and Rutgers, and they should win both. Road games at Louisville at Pittsburgh, however, will not come easily. It is hard to imagine the Mountaineers (5-3) finishing with more than eight wins going into their bowl game.
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Maryland Terrapins
Comment: This would be a huge matchup in say…March…with the roundball. Maryland already has their six wins in the bank, although none of them is particularly stellar. The most impressive wins for the Terrapins so far are a win against Navy at a neutral site and on the road and against a struggling Boston College team. The Terrapins have lost all of their biggest challenges this year, including games against West Virginia, Clemson, and Miami. All of their losses have been on the road, so this week’s game at Virginia will certainly be hard fought. Florida State and North Carolina State both loom on the schedule for Maryland. Kentucky needs just one more win to reach six victories. They sit at 5-5, but they should win both of their remaining games against Vanderbilt and Tennessee. Kentucky has a couple of fine wins this year. The Wildcats’ win over Louisville on the road looks much better now with the resurgence of the Cardinals. Kentucky also knocked off South Carolina just one week after the Gamecocks whipped the Crimson Tide.
Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl
Kansas State Wildcats vs. Cal Bears
Comment: The Cal Bears might be in a world of hurt. They are currently 5-4, so they only need one more win to be bowl eligible. The problem is that their next two games are against Oregon and Stanford. Both games are at home, so while an upset in either game is unlikely, it is there as a possibility. Most likely, the Bears will be relying on a win at home against Washington. They are projected to win that game and sneak into the bowl picture with a 6-6 record. Kansas State is fresh off a road win against Texas to be bowl eligible at 6-3. Games against Colorado and North Texas still remain on the schedule, so an 8 win regular season is within reach. A Holiday Bowl invite for Kansas State would be a tremendous achievement for the Wildcats who haven’t played in the bowl season since 2006.
Meineke Car Care Bowl
South Florida Bulls vs. North Carolina Tar Heels
Comment: Butch Davis, the Tar Heels head coach, deserves a lot of credit. After the scandal that rocked the Tar Heels defense with loads of suspensions and ineligible players, UNC fought back with a resiliency that has to be admired. After losing their first two games, the Tar Heels have won 6 of their last seven. Virginia Tech, North Carolina State, and a road game at Duke still sit on the schedule. If UNC can upset either Virginia Tech or North Carolina State at home before a win at Duke, an eight win season would be a real credit to North Carolina. South Florida isn’t bowl eligible quite yet as they sit with five wins. None of their remaining games are easy ones. Louisville looked like a win early, but Charlie Strong has turned that program around in year one. Pitt, Miami, and UConn round out the schedule, so the Bulls will have to take care of business somewhere. Every team is beatable, but every team remaining for the Bulls is quite capable of beating them as well.
Hyundai Sun Bowl
Miami Hurricanes vs. Oregon State Beavers
Comment: The Hurricanes have a tough stretch ahead of them. They travel to Georgia Tech before hosting Virginia Tech and a pesky South Florida team. At 6-3, they could use a few more wins to pad their image for bowl consideration. For Miami, it isn’t the record that is so much a concern, but how they have performed- especially in the losses. Miami looked horrible in the early season loss to Ohio State, and Florida State really dropped the dum-dums on them in Tallahassee. A loss to Virginia was boggling. A last minute touchdown to beat Maryland at home doesn’t exactly ease the mind either. Oregon State’s bowl future is much more dire. They sit at 4-4 and need to win two of their last four. They better get those wins in the next two weeks because they end the season at Stanford and then host the Ducks. A win versus Washington State should be a given, but hosting Southern Cal is not. OSU is looking at the very real possibility of not playing after their rivalry game with Oregon.
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Central Florida Knights vs. Georgia Bulldogs
Comment: The Bulldogs have averaged nearly 43 points per game in their last five contests. They have gone 4-1 down that stretch and have resembled the team that some predicted to win the SEC East. The Bulldogs are no lock to play in a bowl. They only have five wins and need another. With a road trip to Auburn and a home stand against Georgia Tech, it is not a guarantee that the 5-5 Bulldogs will be bowling. They are, however, projected to beat Georgia Tech at home. UCF is projected to win their next four games- three remain in the regular season and the Conference USA championship game. That would make the Knights 11-2 entering Liberty Bowl and winners of their last nine. The only losses for Central Florida this year have been to Kansas State and North Carolina State, and both losses were by a touchdown or less.
Chick-fil-A Bowl
Florida State Seminoles vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs
Comment: Florida State still has much bigger aspirations- namely, winning the ACC Atlantic Division and winning the ACC Championship for a probable Orange Bowl invite. While they are projected to win their division, it is hard to see them beating a Virginia Tech team that has emerged since the debacle that was the Hokies’ first two games. The Seminoles have lost their last two games, and the early season thumping they took from the Sooners can’t be forgotten. Mississippi State, on the other hand, is a team that has steadily gotten better week to week. They find themselves at 7-2 on the year with some great opportunities to prove their mettle still. Alabama and Arkansas are still on the slate. If the Bulldogs should upset either of those teams and win the Egg Bowl against Ole Miss, the Bulldogs could be looking at an Outback Bowl or even Cotton Bowl bid.
TicketCity Bowl
Northwestern Wildcats vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders
Comment: Northwestern took advantage of an easy early-season schedule and got their six wins before the end of October. It’s a good thing because the 6-3 Wildcats might not win another one. The bowl picture for Northwestern could have been much prettier if not for an inexplicable loss to Purdue at home and blowing a three touchdown lead to Penn State. Texas Tech has taken the more scenic route. Sitting at 5-4, the Red Raiders need one more win to solidify their bowl eligibility. With Weber State still on the slate, they should punch their ticket. Hosting the Houston Cougars could be another win, so 7-5 is a very real possibility for Tommy Tuberville’s first year in Lubbock.
Outback Bowl
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Florida Gators
Comment: Are the Florida Gators back to form? There is a good chance everyone will find out this Saturday when they face South Carolina in the Swamp. It appears like they might be. And if the Gators do beat the Gamecocks and play for the SEC Championship, they will be rewarded with a New Year’s Day bowl. They get a breather game in Appalachian State after playing USC-East. If the Gators win both games and follow them up with a victory in Tallahassee against the Seminoles, suddenly, the
Gators will be a very attractive team for bowl suitors. The Iowa Hawkeyes can improve their bowl stock by beating Ohio State. Iowa needs a lot of help to get into the BCS. Their BCS standing will not be high enough to get the Hawkeyes in on their own merit. Yet, with the Big Ten likely to get two teams into the BCS, it helps keep the Hawkeyes playing in sunny weather on New Year’s.
Capital One Bowl
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Michigan State Spartans
Comment: What a bad year for Sparty to possibly go 11-1. Two other teams in the Big 10 might do exactly the same, and both of them will be ranked higher than Michigan State in the BCS. To make matters worse, MSU beat one of them and didn’t get a chance to play the other. That sounds like a flawed system to me. As a result, Michigan State could be left out of the BCS despite doing more than enough to earn a bid. The Razorbacks have some buzz after shell-shocking the Gamecocks in Columbia last week. The Razorbacks still have an opportunity to impress the voters and the bowl selection committees with their remaining schedule. They face a probable bowl team in UTEP this week before traveling to Mississippi State. If they win both of those games, it sets up a showdown with LSU in Little Rock. This projection has Arkansas running that gauntlet and putting themselves in line for the Capital One instead of the Cotton.
Gator Bowl
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. South Carolina Gamecocks
Comment: Penn State is already bowl eligible with a 6-3 record, but they have the opportunity to really climb the bowl position ladder. With home games against Indiana and Michigan State still on the slate, reaching eight wins is a definite possibility. Beating Michigan State would be a great bowl resume builder. In early October, the Gamecocks were looking like a team that could win the SEC. They had beaten then top ranked Alabama, stuffed Georgia, and nearly knocked off Auburn in the plains. Then the inevitable happened. They lost to Kentucky. They barely got past struggling Vandy and Tennessee. Last week, the Gamecocks were drilled in their back yard by the Razorbacks. The Gamecocks went from a team expected to make a run for the BCS to a team that is expected to watch Florida play for the SEC championship in Atlanta.
Rose Bowl
Wisconsin Badgers vs. Stanford Cardinals
Comment: By projecting Ohio State to beat Iowa, this puts Wisconsin in the driver’s seat to win the Big Ten’s bid to the Rose Bowl. There are a few road bumps along the way, however. A road trip against a dangerous Michigan Wolverine team is sandwiched between two pesky conference rivals in Indiana and Northwestern. All three games should be won by the Badgers, but none of them are gimme games. Stanford is in a great position to make the BCS, but they need two things to happen. They need Oregon to run the table, and they need to take care of their own business. If Oregon plays for the BCS National Championship against TCU, the Rose Bowl is off the hook for selecting a non automatic qualifier conference team. The Rose Bowl loves their Pac-10 versus Big Ten matchups, and Stanford, by winning out, can give them all the excuses they need to make it happen again.
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
Comment: Nebraska should win their remaining three games on the schedule to cruise into the Big XII championship. Their opponent could be any of four teams in the Big XII South, but the Cornhuskers should beat any of the four on a neutral field. Alabama’s path to the BCS is a bit more tricky. First, they must win out. Their chances of playing in the SEC Championship game will likely be nil after the Auburn-Georgia game this week. Even still, the Tide are projected to beat Auburn as that game is in Tuscaloosa. The Fiesta Bowl will have a decision to make. Do they take a two loss Alabama team or an undefeated Boise State team? If Alabama beats a ranked Mississippi State team and then follows that up by upsetting a top two team in the nation, Auburn, the Tide will shoot up the polls and the BCS rankings once again. The Tide could land anywhere from the BCS to the Outback Bowl.
Orange Bowl
Virginia Tech Hokies vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
Comment: After a horrible start that included a loss to FCS member James Madison, Virginia Tech has played like a team worthy of a BCS bid. They have won their last seven, including an impressive victory against North Carolina State in Raleigh. It isn’t set in stone that the Hokies will play in the ACC Championship game quite yet. They still have road contests against Miami and North Carolina on the schedule, but they should be good enough to win two of the last three to earn their spot. Ohio State is not getting much love from the majority of college football analysts as they are predicting a loss at Iowa. I think the Buckeyes are a much more well-rounded team and will get a win, albeit a close one, on the road and take their share of the Big Ten championship. Wisconsin will get the Rose Bowl bid, but Ohio State will be ranked higher in the BCS and have more name recognition than Michigan State. For that reason, the Orange would select the Buckeyes over the Spartans.
Allstate Sugar Bowl
Auburn Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Panthers
Comment: The Auburn Tigers are facing some major obstacles to finish the year. Not only do they face a Georgia Bulldog team that seems to have found their identity, they travel to Tuscaloosa, and then will be playing either South Carolina or Florida in the SEC Championship game. The off the field distractions are piling up in addition to the level of competition down the stretch. And Auburn still doesn’t play a lick of defense. At some point during that stretch, most likely the game at Alabama, all of this mess will catch up to Auburn. Pitt, on the other hand, is easily the team that least deserves to be playing in a BCS game. They have already lost three games this year and it won’t be that surprising if they lose another one or two down the stretch. But, someone has to win the Big East and represent the conference in the BCS.
GoDaddy.com Bowl
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Temple Owls
Comment: Arkansas State should win this week against Western Kentucky. They will likely lose the following week against Navy. That means a road game against Florida International will determine if Arkansas State is bowl eligible. It could mean bowl eligibility for FIU as well. This projection has Arkansas State winning that game and earning the second Sun Belt bowl selection. Temple has been solid the entire year. Their only losses have been a hard fought battle against Penn State and the projected MAC champs, Northern Illinois. At 8-2, the Temple Owls have two winnable games left in the regular season. It would not be surprising to see Temple at 10-2 as they enter their bowl game.
AT&T Cotton Bowl Classic
LSU Tigers vs. Oklahoma Sooners
Comment: Oklahoma has a great chance to make an impressive run late in the season. They host a Texas Tech team that just stunned the world with a win over Missouri. They travel to Baylor and then visit their in-state rivals, Oklahoma State. In projecting that the Sooners will win all three, the Cotton Bowl would probably be getting at least one top ten team. LSU has not played in the Cotton Bowl since 2003. If they beat the Razorbacks in Little Rock, LSU could catapult themselves as high as a BCS game or into the Capital One Bowl.
Birmingham Bowl
Louisville Cardinals vs. UTEP Miners
Comment: If Charlie Strong leads the Louisville Cardinals to a bowl game in his first year, he should be up for coach of the year honors for the Big East. He inherited an absolute mess and already has the Cardinals staring at a possible bowl bid. Strong and the Cardinals still have work to do at 5-4 and the road is not easy. They face two tough games at home- South Florida and West Virginia- before traveling to Rutgers to finish the season. The Cardinals must win one of those, and this projection says they will. UTEP is already bowl eligible, and it’s a good thing. Winning on the road at Arkansas is simply not going to happen, and a road win at Tulsa is unlikely as well. Outside of the game against Arkansas, UTEP loaded their non-conference schedule with very winnable games- aka soft. It worked as the Miners will likely be bowling somewhere. UTEP is projected here because the SEC is expected to have exhausted their bowl eligible teams.
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl
Fresno State Bulldogs vs. Iowa State Cyclones
Comment: Iowa State still has some work to do as they need one more win to get to bowl eligible. They should- and better- get it done this week on the road against a Colorado Buffaloes team that has given up 95 points in the past two weeks. The Cyclones are projected here because the Pac-10 is not projected to have enough bowl eligible teams to fill this slot. Fresno State on the other hand, is already bowl eligible. With Hawaii a lock for the Hawaii Bowl and Nevada and Boise State ahead of them in the WAC standings, Fresno State likely will not play their way into a better bowl game. However, if Boise State does get invited to another BCS game, the Bulldogs will probably represent the WAC in the New Mexico Bowl.
Tostitos BCS National Championship Game
Oregon Ducks vs. TCU Horned Frogs
Comment: Hello, Horned Frogs. With all of the hubbub surrounding Cam Newton and the Auburn Tigers, I find it more and more likely that either the distractions or their lack of defense will catch up to them. That leaves TCU remaining to slide into the BCS National Championship. Oregon has arguably the most dynamic offense in the country. TCU boasts a defense that most analysts will say is dominant not only against their fellow non automatic qualifying foes, but could be a shutdown defense in the major conferences as well.
Note: Predictions were made based on presumption of bowl eligibility, predicted standings, and bowl tie ins for each conference. If the assumption was made that a conference would not have enough bowl eligible teams to fill the required number of positions, alternate conference options were used when available. If no predicted alternate was available, an at-large option was selected that was assumed to be bowl eligible.
